OGN Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how OGN performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, OGN sees a +2.66% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -3.13% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.04%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
OGN Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.58B
4.15%
-1.56%
Gross Margin
58.34%
-2.29%
-0.15%
Operating Margin
24.65%
64.22%
4.23%
Net Margin
22.69%
493.98%
87.06%
EPS
1.38
500.00%
84.00%
No Data Available
OGN Earnings Analysis
Organon & Co. Corporation (OGN.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Q3 2024 Revenue Performance: 1. Revenue Growth: Organon reported Q3 2024 revenue of $1.6 billion, reflecting a 5% growth rate at constant currency, driven by a 6% increase in the women's health franchise and a 17% growth in the biosimilars franchise.
Free Cash Flow Performance: 2. Strong Free Cash Flow: Year-to-date, Organon has generated nearly $700 million in free cash flow and is on track to achieve approximately $1 billion in free cash flow for 2024, supporting dividend payments and investments in high-potential assets.
EBITDA Margin Enhancement: 3. Adjusted EBITDA Margin Improvement: The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $459 million for Q3 2024, resulting in a 29% adjusted EBITDA margin, with an upward revision of the full-year adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 30% to 31%.
Nexplanon Revenue Growth: 4. Nexplanon Performance: Nexplanon experienced an 11% growth in Q3 2024, with expectations of achieving constant currency full-year revenue growth in the low to mid-teens, positioning it to reach the $1 billion revenue milestone next year.
VTAMA Acquisition Impact: 5. Successful Acquisition of VTAMA: The acquisition of Dermavant and its key asset, VTAMA, is expected to generate at least $150 million in sales in 2025, with potential growth to $0.5 billion over the next three to five years, enhancing Organon's dermatology portfolio.
Negative
Adjusted Gross Margin Decline: 1. Declining Adjusted Gross Margin: Adjusted gross margin decreased to 61.7% in Q3 2024 from 62.6% in Q3 2023, primarily due to unfavorable product mix and pricing pressures.
Pricing Pressure Challenges: 2. Increased Pricing Headwinds: The company faced approximately $70 million in pricing impact during Q3 2024, equating to about 4.6% of revenue, with expectations for steeper pricing pressures in the back half of the year due to mandatory pricing reductions in Japan.
Volume Growth Outlook Adjustment: 3. Lowered Volume Growth Outlook: The volume growth range for 2024 was narrowed to $445 million to $465 million, down from a previous expectation of $500 million to $600 million, reflecting a softer outlook in the fertility segment.
Dilutive Acquisition Impact: 4. Dilutive Impact from Dermavant Acquisition: The acquisition of Dermavant is expected to be dilutive to EBITDA margins by about 50 basis points in 2025, with no synergies reflected in the current expense rate.
Rising Operating Expenses: 5. Increased Operating Expenses: The projected operating expenses for Dermavant in 2025 are estimated at $180 million, which includes significant promotional spending, indicating a substantial financial commitment without guaranteed returns.
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OGN Earning Call Sentiment
Organon & Co. (OGN) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
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OGN.N
6.96%Positive
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: there is positive growth in revenue and free cash flow, but EBITDA margin pressure and pricing impacts are concerns. The Q&A reveals uncertainties regarding operational costs and management's unclear responses. The narrow revenue guidance and the impact of LOE further contribute to a neutral sentiment. However, the company's strong cash flow and dividend capacity provide some positive support, balancing the overall outlook.
