NCDL Should I Buy
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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp (NCDL) is not a strong buy at this moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. The stock lacks clear positive momentum, has weak financial performance, and no significant trading signals to indicate an immediate opportunity. While insider buying and the recent acquisition of Schroders are positive signs, the declining financials and limited growth prospects make it prudent to hold off on investing right now.
The MACD is positive but contracting, RSI is neutral at 40.37, and moving averages are converging, indicating no clear trend. The stock is trading near its pivot level of 13.799, with resistance at 14.223 and support at 13.376. Overall, the technical indicators do not suggest a strong buy signal.
Insiders have increased their buying activity by 416.63% over the last month. Additionally, Nuveen's £9.9 billion acquisition of Schroders positions the company for potential long-term growth as a global fund management leader.
The company's financial performance in Q3 2025 showed significant declines in revenue (-26.04% YoY), net income (-49.08% YoY), and EPS (-43.28% YoY). The private capital industry is facing challenges due to lower interest rates, and the stock has a 50% chance of declining in the next month based on historical patterns.
In Q3 2025, revenue dropped to $48.38M (-26.04% YoY), net income dropped to $18.66M (-49.08% YoY), and EPS fell to $0.38 (-43.28% YoY). Gross margin remains high at 97.17% but declined slightly by 0.63% YoY. Overall, the financial performance indicates significant weakness.
Citizens recently lowered the price target from $18 to $16 while maintaining an Outperform rating. Analysts highlight the importance of scale and diversification for resilient growth, but the private capital industry's challenges due to lower interest rates remain a concern.
