Should I Buy NCDL? NCDL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp (NCDL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

13.440

1 Day change

0.45%

52 Week Range

17.540

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

Buy now (tactical entry). NCDL is trading near key support (pre-market 13.44 vs S1 13.238) with improving momentum (MACD histogram positive/expanding) and very strong insider buying (+416.63% last month). While the broader trend is still bearish (SMA200>SMA20>SMA5) and recent fundamentals weakened (2025/Q3 YoY declines), the risk/reward is favorable for an impatient buyer given (1) proximity to support, (2) upside to the Street price target ($16), and (3) a near-term catalyst window into earnings (Feb 26).

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish primary trend (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5), suggesting the stock has been in a downtrend. Momentum: Turning better—MACD histogram 0.0156 is above zero and expanding, indicating bullish momentum building. RSI: RSI(6) at 45.7 is neutral (not overbought), leaving room for a bounce. Levels: Pre-market 13.44 is slightly below the pivot (13.52). Key support sits at 13.238 (S1) then 13.063 (S2). Near-term resistance is 13.803 (R1) then 13.978 (R2). A clean move back above 13.52 increases odds of a push toward 13.80–13.98. Pattern-based forward view: Model suggests mild next-day upside (~+0.53%), weak next-week bias (-1.21%), but strong next-month upside potential (+13.3%). Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Positive Catalysts

Heavy insider buying: insiders are buying and the buying amount increased 416.63% over the last month.
Analyst stance remains positive: Citizens reiterated Outperform (despite cutting PT).
Event catalyst ahead: Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings scheduled for 2026-02-26 pre-market (EPS est. 0.43), which can re-rate the stock if results/portfolio commentary are solid.
Technical momentum improving: positive and expanding MACD histogram suggests a potential short-term rebound setup near support.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Primary technical trend still bearish: moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA200>SMA20>SMA5), so rallies can fail at resistance.
Latest reported fundamentals weakened in 2025/Q3: revenue, net income, and EPS all fell sharply YoY.
Macro sensitivity: as a direct lending vehicle, a lower-rate backdrop can pressure net investment income depending on portfolio structure (also referenced in the analyst note).
Near-term trading bias: pattern-based forecast shows negative next-week expectation (-1.21%), implying potential for a dip toward support before a larger move.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: $48.38M, down 26.04% YoY. Net income: $18.66M, down 49.08% YoY. EPS: $0.38, down 43.28% YoY. Gross margin: 97.17%, down 0.63% YoY. Read-through: Clear YoY deceleration in earnings power in the most recent quarter, which is the main fundamental headwind going into the upcoming Q4/full-year report.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent change: On 2026-01-27, Citizens cut price target to $16 from $18 but maintained an Outperform rating. Wall Street pro view (pros/cons): Pros—still rated Outperform with meaningful upside implied from current levels; emphasis on scale/diversification supporting resilience into 2026. Cons—price target cut reflects a tougher earnings backdrop in a lower-rate environment and the market’s need to better understand underlying earnings drivers. Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available (last 90 days). Hedge funds: neutral with no significant quarterly trend.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NCDL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NCDL is 16.5 USD with a low forecast of 15 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 13.380

Low

Averages

16.5

High

Current: 13.380

Low

Averages

16.5

High

Citizens

Outperform

NULL

downgrade

$18 -> $16

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

New

Reason

Citizens

Price Target

$18 -> $16

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

New

downgrade

Outperform

NULL

Reason

Citizens lowered the firm's price target on Nuveen Churchill to $16 from $18 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The private capital industry is adjusting to a new operating backdrop marked by lower interest rates, creating mixed impacts across products but underscoring the importance of understanding underlying earnings drivers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Scale and diversification should support resilient growth into 2026, making manager selection increasingly critical despite expectations for continued industry expansion, the firm says.

UBS

Doug Harter

Neutral

downgrade

$17 -> $15

2025-10-14

Reason

UBS

Doug Harter

Price Target

$17 -> $15

2025-10-14

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

UBS analyst Doug Harter lowered the firm's price target on Nuveen Churchill to $15 from $17 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

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NCDL Should I Buy

NCDL Should I Buy

Should You Buy Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp (NCDL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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