NCDL Stock Price Prediction

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp

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14.850

-0.060(-0.400%)

Overview
Forecast
Valuation

Should I Buy Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp Stock?

Based on our evaluation of the five key dimensions—Technical Signals, Moving Average trends, Short Sell Data, Similar Chart Pattern Matching and Seasonality Analysis—we have identified the following insights. NCDL has several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Our analysis conclusion for this stock is a Strong Sell candidate.

NCDL stock price ended at $14.85 on Friday, after losing -0.4%

The Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp stock price decreased by -0.4% on the last trading day (09 May 2025), dropping from 14.9 to 14.85. Throughout the last trading session, the stock experienced a fluctuation of 2.50% , ranging from a day low of $14.82 to a day high of 15.19. The price has declined in 8 of the last 10 days, resulting in a total change of -6.72% during this period. On the last day, trading volume increase by -366.38K shares, with the falling prices. This could serve as an early warning, indicating that risk may slightly increase in the coming days. In total, 205.65K shares were traded, amounting to approximately 3.07M.

NCDL Technical Signals

NCDL(Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp Corp) has 2 buy signals and 4 sell signals now. The current trend is consolidation starting from 2025-05-02. The total price change during this trend is -6.95%. Recently, the price has increased but the volume has decreased, indicating a potential warning signal. The average turnover of NCDL over the last 5 trading days is 4.80M. Overall, the technical indicator signals lean more toward a Bearish outlook in the mid-term.

NCDL Moving Average Analysis

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp's overall moving average trend leans more bearish as of Monday, May 12, 2025, with 3 negative signals and 1 positive signal. In the mid-term, the SMA_20 being below the SMA_60 signals a strong bearish trend. There will be some resistance from the lines at $16.3902800818, and $16.94800012. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. There will be some support from the lines at $14.585719958200002, and $14.027999920000003. A break-down below any of these levels will issue sell signals.

NCDL Short Selling Analysis

The short sale ratio of Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp(NCDL) as of 09 May 2025 is 17.37%, dropping from last trading day. With decreasing price from 14.91 to 14.85. The short sell activity indicate that short sellers may be anticipating price hit a bottom.

Technical Signal

Technical Signals Summary

Sell

Buy

Moving Average

Swing

Negative

Stock Price Below SMA_5

Short Term

Negative

SMA_5 Below SMA_20

Mid Term

Negative

SMA_20 Below SMA_60

Long Term

Positive

SMA_60 Above SMA_200

Short Selling

Close Price

Short Sale Ratio

Short Sale Volume

2 Bullish Signals

When Value satisfies Signal, Indicator signals Bullish

Indicators

Signal

Value

Meaning

Stochastic RSI %K (14, 14, 3, 3)

STOCHRSIk_14_14_3_3 < 20

18.449

Bullish

Williams %R (14 days)

WILLR_14 < -80

-90.411

Bullish

4 Bearish Signals

When Value satisfies Signal, Indicator signals Bearish

Indicators

Signal

Value

Meaning

Awesome Oscillator (5, 34)

AO_5_34 < 0

-0.372

Bearish

Momentum (10 days)

MOM_10 < 0

-1.07

Bearish

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (12, 26, 9)

MACD_12_26_9 < 0

-0.193

Bearish

Moving Average

5-day SMA crosses below 20-day SMA

Bearish

NCDL Price Prediction & Forecast by Similar Chart Analysis

Based on historical patterns and backtesting of stocks with similar movements to Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp(NCDL), our algorithm predicts NCDL's 1-month price at $15.14, with an 1.92%upwardshift. Using a similarity score up to 96.56%and other factors, This forecast updates weekly, adjusting for significant deviations.

Similar Chart

The price prediction chart for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp (NCDL.N) stock, as of Sunday, May 11, 2025 , forecasts a 1.92% change over the next month, based on its high correlation with WULF.O stock patterns. The similarity between their price movements over the analyzed periods is 96.56%. The right panel lists other stocks with similar price patterns. This prediction is updated every week.

NCDL

Future prediction

Up: 1.92%

WULF

Up: 1.92%Similarity: 96.56%

Name

Similarity

Up/Down

WULF.O

96.56%

+1.92%

TITN.O

96.03%

-12.17%

SGMA.O

95.93%

+10.99%

BBSI.O

95.75%

-13.89%

NTRS.O

95.47%

+5.60%

XAIR.O

95.12%

-25.59%

CTEV.N

95.11%

-13.14%

GS.N

95.01%

+0.40%

CRDF.O

94.99%

-10.27%

NCDL Seasonality Analysis

Based on NCDL's historical stock price data across all years, the probability of a positive return in May is50.00%, suggesting it maybe an ideal month to invest in NCDL. In contrast,Januaryoffers the highest probability of positive returns at100.00%, making it a potentially strong month for investment.

However, this is only a prediction based on one method, and a comprehensive assessment of the stock's future trend should consider additional factors. Our final stock price commentary incorporates three main evaluation dimensions: technical signals, Moving Average trends, and similar chart pattern matching, with the first two dimensions carrying the primary weight to ensure a more robust and accurate forecast.

Monthly Seasonality

The radar chart shows that buying Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp (NCDL.N) stock in January has the highest probability of a positive return (100.00%), while April has the lowest probability (0.00%).

Performance Seasonality

The chart shows Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL)'s annual stock price return for the past three years, helping you analyze price trends and identify recurring trends on an annual basis.