Stock Price Prediction

Technical Analysis: Based on the latest price data, MRK is showing signs of weakness with RSI-14 at 45.28, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish momentum. The stock is trading below all major moving averages (SMA 20, 60, 200), suggesting a bearish trend.

News Impact Analysis:

• Deutsche Bank recently downgraded MRK to Hold from Buy and lowered PT to $105 from $128, citing concerns about Keytruda's loss of exclusivity in 2028. This has created selling pressure on the stock.
• Trump's administration has indicated plans to continue Medicare price negotiations, which could impact pharmaceutical companies' pricing power, including MRK.
• A private meeting between pharmaceutical executives and Trump discussed potential tariffs on pharmaceutical goods and manufacturing relocation to the U.S., adding uncertainty to the sector.

Price Prediction for Next Week: Based on technical indicators and recent news:

• Support level: $82.26 (Fibonacci S1)
• Resistance level: $88.75 (Fibonacci R1)

Expected price movement scenarios:

• Bearish case (60% probability): Price could test $82-83 level if market sentiment remains negative
• Neutral case (30% probability): Trading range between $85-88
• Bullish case (10% probability): Limited upside potential to $89-90 due to multiple headwinds

Trading Recommendation: SELL Rationale:

1. Multiple bearish catalysts from policy and regulatory fronts
2. Technical indicators showing weakness
3. Below major moving averages
4. Recent analyst downgrade with concerns about future revenue streams

Target exit price: $82.50 Stop loss: $91.00 (above recent resistance)