MRK Price Prediction Next Week
Technical Analysis:
Based on the recent price movement, MRK has shown a significant decline of -2.76% in the last trading session, closing at $97.92 . The stock is currently trading below both its 20-day moving average ($99.48) and 60-day moving average ($100.27), indicating a short-term downward trend.
The RSI(14) reading of 42.93 suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory but hasn't reached extreme levels yet. The MACD indicator shows a bearish signal with -0.20, indicating continued downward momentum.
News Sentiment Analysis:
Recent significant news events affecting MRK include:
Medicare Drug Price Negotiations: MRK's diabetes drug Janumet has been selected for Medicare price negotiations, which could impact future revenue.
Pipeline Diversification: CEO Robert Davis emphasized that MRK has the most diversified pipeline in recent history, stating "We're not just a Keytruda company, we're an oncology company".
Gardasil Litigation: The company faces upcoming legal challenges regarding its Gardasil vaccine, with the first trial set to begin in Los Angeles.
Price Prediction for Next Week:
Based on technical indicators and news sentiment:
- Support levels: $97.12 (Fibonacci S1)
- Resistance levels: $102.17 (Fibonacci R1)
Expected price movement scenarios:
- Most likely scenario (60% probability): Price consolidation between $97-$99 range due to oversold conditions and potential technical bounce.
- Bearish scenario (25% probability): Break below $97 support could lead to further decline towards $95.19 (Fibonacci S3).
- Bullish scenario (15% probability): Recovery above $100 could target $102.17 resistance level.
Trading Recommendation: SELL
Rationale:
- Negative technical indicators
- Below key moving averages
- Regulatory headwinds from Medicare negotiations
- Legal uncertainties from upcoming Gardasil trial
Target entry: Current market price ($97.92) Stop loss: $100.50 (above recent resistance) Price target: $95.20
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MRK VS S&P500
Keytruda looks best positioned in the immuno-oncology landscape, buoyed by a first-mover advantage in the important indication of first-line non-small cell lung cancer.
The growth in Merck's high margin cancer drugs should help expand the company's overall operating margin.
Merck supports a strong dividend yield that looks secure based on a wide diversified portfolio of drugs.
MRK Analyst's Forecast
Mohit Bansal
Wells Fargo
Hold
Price Target
$125 → $110
Upside
+7.98%
Wells Fargo analyst Mohit Bansal lowered the firm's price target on Merck to $110 from $125 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Merck's Gardasil expectation reset is a step in right direction, but new investment would still need a narrative shift and Winrevair may not be enough to drive that, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Terence Flynn
Morgan Stanley
Hold
Price Target
$130 → $123
Upside
+20.74%
Andrew Baum
Citigroup
Strong Buy
Price Target
$140 → $130
Upside
+25.02%