Should You Buy Mayville Engineering Company Inc (MEC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
19.200
1 Day change
-2.29%
52 Week Range
19.820
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. MEC is in a short-term uptrend, but it’s pressing into nearby resistance (~19.95–20.00) while options positioning is defensively skewed (puts > calls) and the latest quarter showed worsening profitability and margin compression. With the Street recently downgrading the stock as “close to fully valued,” the risk/reward at ~19.65 is not attractive for a chase entry. Better as a hold (or wait for a pullback toward support) rather than a buy here.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish but extended/near resistance. Price closed at 19.65 after a strong regular-session move (+3.8%). Moving averages are aligned bullishly (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.011), confirming upward momentum. RSI_6 is ~70.4 (borderline hot/near overbought), suggesting upside may be limited near-term. Key levels: pivot 18.64; resistance R1 19.45 (already reclaimed) and R2 19.95 (immediate overhead); support S1 17.84. The setup looks like a momentum push into resistance rather than a clean low-risk entry.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment skews cautious/defensive: open interest put/call is 1.14 (more puts than calls outstanding). Today’s volume is put-only in the snapshot (put volume 43 vs call volume 0), with volume far above the 30-day average (today vs avg ~358%). Implied volatility is very elevated (30D IV ~116.6) with a high IV percentile (~89), implying the market is pricing large moves and/or hedging demand. Net read: not a “confident upside” options tape; more consistent with protection/uncertainty near resistance.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Clear technical uptrend with bullish MA stack and positive MACD momentum.
Revenue growth in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3 +6.59% YoY).
No negative news flow in the past week and no notable hedge fund/insider trend signals (both neutral), reducing headline risk short-term.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Profitability deterioration in 2025/Q3: net income turned negative (-$2.675M) with EPS -0.13 and gross margin down to 8.88% (margin compression).
Stock is near a well-defined resistance zone (~19.95–20.00), matching the analyst view of “fully valued”/resistance overhead.
Options positioning and elevated IV suggest hedging/uncertainty rather than clean bullish conviction.
No recent news catalysts to justify a breakout beyond resistance.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $144.31M (+6.59% YoY), but profitability weakened sharply: net income fell to -$2.675M (-189.95% YoY), EPS -0.13 (-192.86% YoY). Gross margin declined to 8.88% (-21.76% YoY), indicating cost pressure and/or weaker pricing/mix. Growth is present on the top line, but the trend in margins/earnings is negative, which limits how aggressively to buy at resistance.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: negative. On 2026-01-05, Northland downgraded MEC to Market Perform from Outperform and kept the $20 price target, citing shares as close to fully valued and running into chart resistance. Wall Street pros/cons view: Pros—fundamentals and long-term growth outlook are liked. Cons—valuation appears stretched near $20 and technical resistance is a near-term headwind, aligning with a “hold” stance rather than an immediate buy.
Wall Street analysts forecast MEC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MEC is 21 USD with a low forecast of 19 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MEC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MEC is 21 USD with a low forecast of 19 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 19.650
Low
19
Averages
21
High
24
Current: 19.650
Low
19
Averages
21
High
24
Northland
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$20
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
Reason
Northland
Price Target
$20
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Northland downgraded Mayville Engineering to Market Perform from Outperform with an unchanged price target of $20. While the firm likes the fundamentals of the company and its long-term growth outlook, it thinks shares are close to fully valued and notes that they are "knocking against a reasonably strong point of resistance from a chart perspective."
Craig-Hallum
NULL -> Buy
initiated
$24
2025-10-21
Reason
Craig-Hallum
Price Target
$24
2025-10-21
initiated
NULL -> Buy
Reason
Craig-Hallum initiated coverage of Mayville Engineering with a Buy rating and $24 price target.
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