MEC Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how MEC performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, MEC sees a +0.04% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +5.91% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.60%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
MEC Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
121.31M
-18.36%
-10.40%
Gross Margin
7.47%
-31.15%
-34.19%
Operating Margin
-2.02%
-155.96%
-147.75%
Net Margin
13.17%
778.00%
498.64%
EPS
0.75
581.82%
435.71%
No Data Available
MEC Earnings Analysis
Mayville Engineering Company Inc Corporation (MEC.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Free Cash Flow Growth: During a period of softer demand, the company maintained consistent profitability and disciplined working capital management, resulting in significant year-over-year growth in free cash flow generation.
Free Cash Flow Surge: In 2024, the company generated free cash flow of nearly $78 million, with organic free cash flow more than doubling compared to 2023 levels, excluding a legal settlement.
Debt Repayment and Leverage Reduction: The company repaid over $31 million in debt during the fourth quarter, reducing net leverage to 1.3 times, which is below their targeted range of 1.5 to 2 times.
New Business Wins Growth: Mayville Engineering booked more than $100 million in new business wins in 2024, an increase of 12% year-over-year, indicating strong commercial growth despite current demand conditions.
Customer Relationship Stability: The company has had no unexpected customer contract cancellations, demonstrating the durability of customer relationships.
Diversification into Emerging Markets: The company is actively pursuing diversification into less cyclical, higher-value opportunities, particularly in emerging markets such as data centers and thermal management.
Operational Efficiency Improvements: The company has completed over 275 MBX Kaizen events, resulting in a 5% reduction in manufacturing space and a 12% reduction in headcount, contributing to improved operational efficiency.
Share Repurchase Confidence: The company expects to continue repurchasing shares, with $19 million remaining under the existing authorization, indicating confidence in their financial position and future growth.
Demand Recovery Anticipation: The company anticipates a gradual recovery in demand conditions during the second half of 2025, based on current customer discussions and new projects in backlog.
Negative
Revenue Decline Due to Demand: Lower customer program activity led to an 18% year-over-year decline in revenue, indicating a significant drop in demand.
Commercial Vehicle Revenue Decline: The commercial vehicle market saw a 10.5% decrease in revenue year-over-year, reflecting broader market trends and reduced production forecasts.
Powersports Market Revenue Decline: The powersports market experienced a 29.1% decline in revenue, driven by customer inventory destocking and soft consumer demand due to high financing rates.
Revenue Decline in Construction: Construction and access revenues decreased by 34.5% year-over-year, indicating ongoing weakness in non-residential and public infrastructure markets.
Agricultural Revenue Decline: The agricultural market saw a staggering 46.5% decline in revenue, with uncertainty surrounding recovery due to interest rates and crop prices.
Q4 EBITDA Decline: Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 dropped to $9.2 million from $17.7 million year-over-year, reflecting a significant decrease in profitability.
EBITDA Margin Decline: The adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by 430 basis points to 7.6%, indicating reduced operational efficiency and profitability.
Q4 Sales Decline: Total sales for Q4 decreased 18.4% year-over-year, highlighting the impact of customer destocking and weaker end-user demand.
Demand Softness and Inventory Challenges: The company anticipates continued softness in demand through the first half of 2025, with inventory destocking remaining a headwind for growth and margin expansion.
MEC FAQs
How does MEC typically perform around its earnings report dates?
Is Mayville Engineering Company Inc (MEC) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
MEC Earning Call Sentiment
Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (NYSE:MEC) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
MEC.N
2.06%Positive
The earnings call indicates several challenges: a significant decline in sales and manufacturing margins, increased SG&A expenses, and muted market demand. While there are positive aspects like share repurchases and reduced debt, the decline in key financial metrics and uncertainties in market demand and regulatory pressures overshadow these. The Q&A section also highlighted concerns about tariffs and unclear management responses. Despite some optimism for 2026, the current outlook is negative, suggesting a likely stock price decline of -2% to -8% over the next two weeks.
