MCO Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how MCO performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, MCO sees a -1.56% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.70% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.71%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
MCO Key Earning Data
MCO Earnings Analysis
Positive
Record Revenue Growth: Moody’s Corporation reported a record revenue of $1.9 billion for Q1 2025, marking an 8% year-over-year increase.
Earnings Per Share Increase: Adjusted diluted EPS grew 14% to $3.83, exceeding expectations of $3.54.
Operating Margin Improvement: Moody’s adjusted operating margin improved to 51.7%, up 100 basis points from the previous year.
Record Quarterly Revenue Growth: Moody’s Investors Service (MIS) achieved its highest ever quarterly revenue of $1.1 billion, with an 8% revenue growth driven by a 9% increase in issuance.
Private Credit Growth: Private credit significantly contributed to growth in structured finance, with 143 private credit-related deals in Q1 2025, up from 69 in Q1 2024.
ARR Growth Highlights: Moody’s Analytics (MA) saw a 9% growth in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), led by Decision Solutions which grew ARR by 12%.
Stable Revenue Streams: Recurring revenue accounted for 96% of total MA revenue, indicating strong stability in revenue streams.
New Business Wins: Moody’s secured significant new business wins, including a multimillion-dollar KYC deal with a major global bank and a contract with a major crypto trading platform for KYC AI solutions.
Generative AI Integration: The company is actively integrating generative AI across its product lines, enhancing customer experiences and operational efficiency.
Shareholder Return Commitment: Moody’s maintains a strong financial profile with a commitment to return at least $1.3 billion to shareholders in 2025, representing about 80% of free cash flow.
Negative
Conservative Guidance Amid Volatility: Despite beating earnings expectations, the company has taken a more conservative approach to guidance due to market volatility, indicating uncertainty in future performance.
Revised 2025 Guidance Outlook: The company has widened and lowered its guidance range for 2025, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid economic uncertainty and potential impacts on customer financing decisions.
MIS Rated Issuance Decline: Moody's expects a decrease in MIS rated issuance in the low to high single-digit range for 2025, which is a significant adjustment from previous expectations.
Yield Spread Widening Impact: The company anticipates high yield spreads will widen over the next twelve months, which could negatively impact their business.
Attrition Impact on ARR Growth: There is a noted increase in attrition with US Government contracts, which has led to a downward adjustment in ARR growth guidance.
Revenue Growth Adjustment: The overall revenue growth for Moody's is now expected to be in the mid-single-digit range for 2025, which is a reduction from earlier forecasts.
MCO FAQs
How does MCO typically perform around its earnings report dates?
MCO's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a -1.56% change leading up to the report and a +0.70% change in the 10 days following the release.
Is Moody's Corp (MCO) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
MCO Earning Call Sentiment
Moody’s Corporation (NYSE:MCO) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
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