MAX Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how MAX performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, MAX sees a -4.35% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -3.06% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.70%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
MAX Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
300.65M
156.58%
16.02%
Gross Margin
16.29%
-14.35%
7.60%
Operating Margin
6.07%
427.83%
-0.49%
Net Margin
2.43%
186.48%
-47.06%
EPS
0.33
760.00%
94.12%
No Data Available
MAX Earnings Analysis
Mediaalpha Inc Corporation (MAX.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Transaction Value Surge: Transaction value grew by more than 150% year-over-year, indicating strong market demand and execution.
EBITDA Growth Surge: Adjusted EBITDA increased by more than 200% year-over-year, showcasing improved profitability and operational efficiency.
Strong Q4 Performance: Record fourth quarter results across all key performance metrics, driven by strength in the P&C insurance vertical.
P&C Transaction Value Surge: Over the past five years, P&C transaction value has more than tripled, reflecting significant market share gains and effective strategy execution.
Auto Insurance Market Growth: The auto insurance advertising market is positioned for sustained growth as carrier financial results improve and competition increases.
Medicare Advantage Market Strength: Strong market position in the Medicare Advantage sector, with partnerships with seven of the top 10 carriers, indicating a solid foundation for future growth.
Medicare Advantage Growth Potential: Despite short-term challenges in the health insurance vertical, the long-term growth opportunity in Medicare Advantage remains robust, with a multi-billion dollar market potential.
Strong Performance Exceeds Guidance: Q4 results exceeded guidance across all metrics, demonstrating effective management and operational execution.
Q1 2025 Growth Expectations: Expectations for Q1 2025 include a 95% year-over-year increase in transaction value, indicating continued growth momentum.
Deleveraging and Financial Stability: Solid progress in deleveraging, with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of less than 1.3 times, reflecting financial stability.
Negative
Health Insurance Challenges: Health insurance vertical faced ongoing headwinds in Medicare Advantage and softening in under-65 demand, impacting fourth quarter results.
Health Vertical Transaction Decline: Transaction value in the health vertical decreased by 8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations.
Health Vertical Transaction Decline: Expectations for health vertical transaction values to decline by a high-teens percentage year-over-year in Q1 2025 due to continued softening conditions.
FTC Legal Challenges Ahead: Received a draft complaint and initial settlement demand from the Federal Trade Commission regarding the under-65 health insurance business, indicating potential legal challenges ahead.
Legal Issues Impacting EBITDA: Q4 adjusted EBITDA included $9 million of add backs related to the FTC matter, indicating financial strain due to legal issues.
Pricing Moderation Impact: Moderation in pricing from Q4 levels expected, which could impact future revenue growth.
Rising Operational Costs: Overhead expected to increase sequentially by approximately $500,000 to $1 million, indicating rising operational costs.
MAX FAQs
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MAX Earning Call Sentiment
MediaAlpha, Inc. (NYSE:MAX) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
MAX.N
-19.59%Positive
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. While financial performance shows strong growth in transaction value and adjusted EBITDA, regulatory risks with the FTC and competitive pressures in the insurance market pose significant uncertainties. The absence of a share repurchase program and lack of clear guidance on the FTC situation further contribute to the neutral sentiment. Despite optimistic guidance and bullishness in the P&C market, the market's response may be tempered by these risks and uncertainties.
