IHS Holding Limited (IHS) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.

Overview

The earnings call reveals strong revenue growth, particularly in Nigeria and Latin America, and increased EBITDA projections. Guidance has been raised across key financial metrics, indicating confidence in future performance. The Q&A section highlights strategic investments in Brazil and a disciplined capital allocation approach, including potential shareholder returns. Despite some uncertainties in CapEx plans and specific financial strategies, the overall sentiment is positive, supported by growth prospects in 5G and market expansion. Given the company's small market cap, the stock is likely to react positively, with a predicted increase of 2% to 8%.

Key Financial Performance

Revenue $455 million, ahead of plan with constant currency revenue growth of almost 9%, driven by CPI escalators, colocation, lease amendments, and new sites.

Adjusted EBITDA $261 million with a margin of 57.5%, an increase of over 6%, reflecting ongoing commitment to cost control and driving profitability.

Adjusted Levered Free Cash Flow (ALFCF) $158 million, an 81% increase year-over-year, driven by targeted actions to enhance cash generation and a different interest rate profile due to bond refinancing.

Total CapEx $77 million, up 16% year-on-year, reflecting the quarterly phasing of CapEx predominantly in Nigeria.

Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio 3.3x, down 0.6x year-on-year, supported by proceeds from the Rwanda disposal and deleveraging efforts.

Nigeria Segment Revenue $268 million, organic growth of 5% year-on-year, driven by new colocations and lease amendments, despite a reduction in revenue from vacated tenants and lease amendments.

Nigeria Segment Adjusted EBITDA $170 million, a 7% increase year-on-year, reflecting increased revenue, though margin decreased due to higher costs of sales, admin expenses, and diesel costs.

Sub-Saharan Africa Segment Revenue Increased 13%, driven by new tenants and colocations, partially offset by lower revenues from FX resets.

Sub-Saharan Africa Segment Adjusted EBITDA Decreased just over 1% year-on-year, reflecting increased costs, primarily due to regulatory fees.

LatAm Segment Revenue Increased by over 13% year-on-year, driven by tenant growth and lease amendment activity.

LatAm Segment Adjusted EBITDA Increased by almost 22%, with a margin increase of 560 basis points, reflecting cost-saving initiatives.

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Operating Highlights

Revenue: Revenue came at $455 million, ahead of plan with constant currency revenue growth of almost 9%, driven by CPI escalators, colocation, lease amendments, and new sites.

Adjusted EBITDA: Adjusted EBITDA came at $261 million with a margin of 57.5%, an increase of over 6%, reflecting ongoing commitment to cost control and driving profitability.

ALFCF: ALFCF came at $158 million, a very strong result driven by targeted actions to enhance cash generation.

Brazil Expansion: Expanded partnership with TIM in Brazil to build up to 3,000 new sites over five years, with an initial minimum deployment of 500 sites over two years.

Nigeria Growth: Carrier tariff hikes and a strengthening naira are underpinning growth in Nigeria, with robust demand across the footprint.

Deleveraging: Reduced consolidated net leverage ratio to 3.3x, down 0.6x year-on-year, supported by $175 million proceeds from Rwanda disposal.

Efficiency Gains: Accelerating efficiency gains by integrating more technology and AI into operations.

Capital Allocation: Considering introducing dividends and/or share buybacks as leverage nears the lower end of the target range.

Disposals: Further disposal activity under consideration to assess additional value-creative opportunities.

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Risk or Challenges

Tenancy churn in Nigeria: The company experienced tenancy churn of 2,576 sites in Nigeria due to an updated agreement with 9mobile, which could have a limited financial impact over the coming years. Additionally, there is ongoing site churn linked to renewed contracts with MTN Nigeria.

Cost increases in Nigeria: Segment adjusted EBITDA margin in Nigeria decreased due to higher costs of diesel, electricity, and administrative expenses, partly driven by the appreciation of the naira.

Regulatory fees in Sub-Saharan Africa: An increase in regulatory fees in the Sub-Saharan African segment impacted adjusted EBITDA, reflecting a normalization of costs compared to a prior-year accrual release.

Macroeconomic risks in Nigeria: While macroeconomic trends in Nigeria are improving, challenges such as high inflation, currency fluctuations, and the need for further monetary policy adjustments remain.

Disposal of assets: The disposal of the Kuwait and Rwanda businesses has reduced revenue and adjusted EBITDA contributions, impacting overall financial performance.

Power indexation revenue decline: Revenue from power indexation declined due to falling diesel prices, although this was offset by lower diesel costs.

Debt and leverage: The company is focused on deleveraging, but high levels of external debt and interest payments remain a challenge.

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Guidance & Outlook

Revenue Expectations: The company has raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $1.72 billion to $1.75 billion, reflecting a $20 million increase from previous guidance. This implies an organic revenue growth rate of 10% at the midpoint.

Adjusted EBITDA Projections: The adjusted EBITDA guidance has been increased to a range of $995 million to $1.015 billion, representing a $10 million uplift from prior guidance.

Adjusted Levered Free Cash Flow (ALFCF): The company now expects ALFCF in the range of $400 million to $420 million, a $10 million increase from earlier projections.

Capital Expenditures (CapEx): Total CapEx guidance remains unchanged at $240 million to $270 million, including an assumption of 600 new sites.

Leverage Ratio: The consolidated net leverage ratio target remains at 3 to 4x, with expectations to reach the low end of this range by the end of 2025.

Market Trends and Growth Opportunities: The company anticipates substantial opportunities for organic growth, particularly in Brazil and Nigeria. In Brazil, a new agreement with TIM aims to build up to 3,000 sites over five years, with an initial deployment of 500 sites over two years. In Nigeria, carrier tariff hikes and a strengthening naira are expected to support growth.

Operational Efficiency: Plans to integrate more technology and AI into operations to accelerate efficiency gains.

Capital Allocation Strategy: The company is considering introducing dividends and/or share buybacks as it nears the lower end of its leverage target. A comprehensive update on capital allocation priorities is expected at the full-year 2025 results.

Foreign Exchange Assumptions: The company has updated its FX assumptions, now using a rate of NGN 1,535 to the U.S. dollar for the full year, compared to the previous assumption of NGN 1,595. This includes an assumption of NGN 1,500 for Q4 2025.

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Shareholder Return Plan

Dividends: The company is considering introducing dividends as it nears the lower end of its leverage target range of 3 to 4x. A comprehensive update on capital allocation priorities, including potential dividends, is expected at the full year 2025 results.

Share Buybacks: The company is considering introducing share buybacks as it nears the lower end of its leverage target range of 3 to 4x. A comprehensive update on capital allocation priorities, including potential share buybacks, is expected at the full year 2025 results.

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Key Q&A

Q:What are the CapEx plans of carrier customers in Nigeria after the tariff increases?

A:MTN Nigeria and Airtel Nigeria have shown strong financial results after the 50% carrier tariff increase, with MTN reporting 63% revenue growth and a 53% margin, and Airtel reporting 56% revenue growth and a 57% margin. Both carriers have spent significantly on densification, coverage, and quality of service, but CapEx is expected to moderate into Q4. Long-term plans are not detailed yet, but updates will be provided in the year-end call.

Q:What is the firm's willingness to invest in Latin America, particularly Brazil, as a growth driver?

A:The firm remains committed to growth in Brazil, especially in the tower sector. They announced a rollout with TIM for 500 sites in the next two years, with a total of up to 3,000 sites. Brazil's economy is strong, with GDP up 2.3%, telecom sector growth of 6%-7%, and margins nearing 50%. The firm sees Brazil as a key avenue for growth CapEx.

Q:Can you provide an update on capital allocation and possible returns to shareholders?

A:The firm expects leverage to be 3x to 3.1x by year-end. They are considering three buckets for capital allocation: growth CapEx, debt reduction (focusing on near-term dollar maturities), and direct shareholder returns (dividends or buybacks). Specifics will be provided in the year-end results. The firm is not pursuing outbound acquisitions.

Q:How should investors compare the firm's financial prospects with other tower companies globally?

A:The firm provides a growth bridge in its quarterly reports, showing headline growth, organic growth, and constant currency growth. EBITDA growth aligns with revenue growth, except for power costs (pass-through) and FX impacts. ALFCF growth is influenced by interest rate profiles, which vary by quarter due to bond interest phasing.

Q:What is the impact of the Rwanda sale on the firm's capital structure and net leverage?

A:The Rwanda sale involves a $275 million cash payment, with $175 million received in October and $100 million due over the next 2-3 years. The pro forma impact on leverage is a 0.1x reduction, with additional reductions as the remaining proceeds are received.

Q:Was the guidance revision due to FX or other factors?

A:The guidance revision was primarily due to FX, reflecting year-to-date performance and stronger local FX assumptions for the end of the year.

Q:What is the firm's debt reduction strategy, particularly regarding callable bonds?

A:The firm is focused on near-term dollar maturities, including bonds due in 2026 and 2027, and a USD term loan due in 2027. Callable bonds are being considered, but specifics will be announced when decisions are made.

Q:Why did the number of sites in Nigeria drop by 500 towers quarter-over-quarter?

A:The reduction is due to MTN churn, part of a one-time renewal of MLAs agreed last year, and some 9mobile churn. The firm is rationalizing towers without tenant opportunities to save costs. This reduction is expected to be a one-time adjustment.

Q:What is the firm's approach to cash balance and capital structure?

A:The firm maintains a group cash balance of $150-$200 million as a buffer. They aim for a balance between bonds and term loans, with a focus on currency denomination aligning with revenue (61%-62% hard currency) and a preference for fixed-rate debt (currently over 2/3 fixed).

Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses

A:Management avoided providing specific details on the long-term CapEx plans of Nigerian carriers, the exact allocation between dividends and buybacks, and the timing or specifics of callable bond actions. Additionally, they did not clarify the exact organic top-line growth algorithm compared to other tower companies.

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Earnings Word Cloud

The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call

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