GRBK Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how GRBK performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, GRBK sees a -0.23% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +5.12% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.11%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
GRBK Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
523.66M
24.99%
-6.59%
Gross Margin
32.76%
-1.27%
-3.16%
Operating Margin
21.74%
-1.14%
-7.72%
Net Margin
18.31%
-0.49%
-10.94%
EPS
1.99
27.56%
-14.22%
No Data Available
GRBK Earnings Analysis
Green Brick Partners, Inc Corporation (GRBK.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Record Home Closings Revenue: 1. Record Home Closings Revenue: Green Brick achieved a record home closings revenue of $523 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a 26% year-over-year increase driven by 956 new home closings, which is a 26.8% increase from the previous year.
Record Net Income Increase: 2. Significant Net Income Growth: The net income attributable to Green Brick rose by 23.5% to $89 million in Q3 2024, marking a record for any third quarter in the company's history.
Record EPS Growth: 3. Strong Year-to-Date EPS Performance: Year-to-date diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $6.12, up 34.5% year-over-year, setting another record for any year-to-date period through the third quarter.
Record Gross Margin Increase: 4. Improved Gross Margins: The year-to-date homebuilding gross margin increased by 290 basis points to 33.6%, achieving a record for any year in the company's history through the third quarter.
Land Acquisition Expansion: 5. Robust Land Acquisition Strategy: Green Brick added over 12,700 new lots on a gross basis year-over-year, with total lots owned and controlled increasing by 41% to over 37,000 lots, positioning the company for sustained growth.
Negative
Average Selling Price Decline: 1. Declining Average Selling Price: The average selling price (ASP) for new home orders decreased by 9.8% year-over-year to $518,000, indicating a significant drop in pricing amidst changing market conditions.
Backlog Value Decline: 2. Decreased Backlog Value: The backlog value at the end of the third quarter fell by 6.5% year-over-year to $582 million, suggesting a reduction in future revenue potential.
Sales Incentives Increase: 3. Increased Incentives and Discounts: Incentives for new orders averaged 5.9% in the third quarter, up from 4.5% in the previous quarter, reflecting a need to offer more concessions to stimulate sales.
Shift to Lower-Priced Homes: 4. Higher Percentage of Lower ASP Sales: Trophy homes, which typically have a lower ASP, represented 52% of total new home orders in Q3, up from 41% in the same quarter last year, indicating a shift towards lower-priced offerings.
Cash Flow Management: 5. Cash Flow Neutrality: The company has been effectively operating at OCF neutral throughout the year, with expectations that land investments may continue to absorb cash flow generated from closings.
GRBK FAQs
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GRBK Earning Call Sentiment
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
GRBK.N
-2.79%Positive
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with record revenues and EPS, despite a slight decline in gross margin. The establishment of a mortgage company and strategic land acquisitions position the company for future growth. Share buybacks and low debt ratios are positive indicators. However, competitive land markets and interest rate sensitivity pose risks. The Q&A section shows management's cautious optimism without providing specific guidance, which tempers enthusiasm. Given the market cap, the stock is likely to react positively, within the 2% to 8% range, due to strong earnings and strategic positioning.
