Stock Price Prediction

Technical Analysis:

Based on recent price action, GLBE has experienced significant downward pressure following its Q4 earnings report on February 19, 2025, with shares falling 25%. The stock is currently in a bearish trend after weak guidance and concerns over potential new U.S. tariffs.

News Impact Analysis:

• Q4 2024 Performance:

  • Revenue growth: 42%
  • Adjusted gross profit: +53%
  • Adjusted EBITDA: +62%

• Key Concerns:

  • 2025 revenue guidance of only 25% growth
  • Sharp decline in Services take rate in Q4
  • Uncertainty around new U.S. tariffs impact
  • Potential removal of de minimus exemption affecting consumer demand

Analyst Perspective:

Jefferies maintains a Buy rating with a $66 price target, while other recent adjustments include:

• UBS: Price target lowered to $64 from $68
• Benchmark: Price target lowered to $64 from $68

Price Prediction for Next Week (March 4-8, 2025):

Based on technical indicators and recent news sentiment:

• Support levels: $35-36 range
• Resistance levels: $42-43 range
• Expected trading range: $37-41

Target Price: $39.50 by end of next week

Recommendation: HOLD

Reasoning:

1. Despite strong Q4 results, near-term uncertainty around tariffs will likely keep pressure on the stock
2. Current valuation at 62x free cash flow suggests limited downside at current levels
3. Management's long-term optimism about tariff impact (similar to Brexit experience) suggests potential recovery, but timing remains uncertain
4. Technical indicators show oversold conditions but no clear reversal signals yet

Best strategy is to wait for more clarity on tariff impact and potential stabilization in price action before establishing new positions.