D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.

Overview

The earnings call summary presents a mixed outlook. While there are positive indicators like strong order growth in certain regions and a significant share repurchase plan, concerns exist over elevated sales incentives, sticky lot costs, and reduced gross margins. The Q&A reveals management's strategic flexibility and confidence but highlights uncertainties in market conditions and costs. The lack of specific guidance on gross margins and incentives adds to the neutral sentiment. Given the absence of market cap data, a neutral prediction is appropriate, balancing positive long-term housing market outlook against current economic volatility.

Key Financial Performance

Consolidated Pretax Income (Q4 2025) $1.2 billion on revenues of $9.7 billion, with a pretax profit margin of 12.4%. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Consolidated Pretax Income (Fiscal 2025) $4.7 billion, with a pretax profit margin of 13.8%. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Homebuilding Pretax Return on Inventory (Fiscal 2025) 20.1%. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Return on Equity (Fiscal 2025) 14.6%. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Return on Assets (Fiscal 2025) 10%. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Operating Cash Flow (Fiscal 2025) $3.4 billion after making homebuilding investments in lots, land, and development totaling $8.5 billion. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Shareholder Returns (Fiscal 2025) $4.8 billion returned through repurchases and dividends. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Net Income (Q4 2025) $905.3 million or $3.04 per diluted share on consolidated revenues of $9.7 billion. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Net Income (Fiscal 2025) $3.6 billion or $11.57 per diluted share on revenues of $34.3 billion. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Home Sales Revenues (Q4 2025) $8.5 billion on 23,368 homes closed. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Average Closing Sales Price (Q4 2025) $365,600, down 1% sequentially, down 3% year-over-year, and down 9% from the peak sales price of more than $400,000 in 2022. Decline attributed to affordability constraints and market adjustments.

Net Sales Orders (Q4 2025) 20,078 homes, up 5% from the prior year quarter. Order value increased 3% to $7.3 billion. Reasons for increase not explicitly mentioned.

Cancellation Rate (Q4 2025) 20%, up from 17% sequentially and down from 21% in the prior year quarter. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Gross Profit Margin on Home Sales Revenues (Q4 2025) 20%, down 180 basis points sequentially. Decline attributed to higher incentive costs (110 basis points) and higher-than-normal litigation costs (60 basis points).

Homebuilding SG&A Expenses (Q4 2025) Flat with the prior year quarter, at 7.9% of revenues. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Homebuilding SG&A Expenses (Fiscal 2025) 8.3% of revenues, with a 3% annual increase due to platform expansion, including a 13% increase in average community count.

Rental Operations Pretax Income (Q4 2025) $81 million on $805 million of revenues. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Rental Operations Pretax Income (Fiscal 2025) $170 million on $1.6 billion of revenues. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Forestar Revenues (Q4 2025) $671 million on 4,891 lots sold, with pretax income of $113 million. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Forestar Revenues (Fiscal 2025) $1.7 billion on 14,240 lots sold, with pretax income of $219 million. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Financial Services Pretax Income (Q4 2025) $76 million on $218 million of revenues, with a pretax profit margin of 34.7%. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Financial Services Pretax Income (Fiscal 2025) $279 million on $841 million of revenues, with a pretax profit margin of 33.1%. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

Stockholders' Equity (Fiscal 2025) $24.2 billion, down 4% from a year ago. Book value per share up 5% to $82.15. Reasons for change not explicitly mentioned.

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Operating Highlights

New Home Sales: Net sales orders increased by 5% to 20,078 homes in Q4, with an order value increase of 3% to $7.3 billion. Average sales price was $364,900, down 3% year-over-year.

Rental Operations: Generated $170 million of pretax income on $1.6 billion of revenues for the year from the sale of single-family and multifamily rental units.

Market Share and Geographic Footprint: Expanded average number of active selling communities by 13% year-over-year, reflecting growth in market presence.

Operational Efficiency: Improved cycle times for home construction, reducing inventory and enhancing efficiency. Median cycle time decreased by 2 weeks year-over-year.

Capital Allocation: Generated $3.4 billion in operating cash flow, returned $4.8 billion to shareholders through repurchases and dividends, and maintained a strong balance sheet with $6.6 billion in liquidity.

Affordability Focus: Continued focus on providing affordable homes, with average sales price $140,000 lower than the national average for new homes.

Land and Lot Investments: Invested $8.5 billion in lots, land, and development, with 65% of homes closed on lots developed by third parties or Forestar.

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Risk or Challenges

Affordability Constraints: New home demand is impacted by affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment, which could limit sales growth and revenue.

Cancellation Rates: The cancellation rate for the quarter was 20%, which, while in line with historical averages, represents a potential risk to revenue stability.

Gross Profit Margin Decline: Gross profit margin on home sales revenues decreased by 180 basis points sequentially, driven by higher incentive costs and litigation expenses, which could impact profitability.

Elevated Incentive Levels: Incentive levels are expected to remain elevated in fiscal 2026, which could pressure margins depending on market conditions and demand.

Inventory Management: The company ended the year with 19,600 unsold homes, including 9,300 completed homes, which could pose a risk if demand does not materialize as expected.

Market Volatility and Uncertainty: The company acknowledges current volatility and uncertainty in the economy, which could impact operations and strategic plans.

Litigation Costs: Higher-than-normal litigation costs contributed to a decrease in gross profit margin, representing a financial risk.

Land and Lot Investments: Significant investments in lots, land, and development ($8.5 billion in fiscal 2025) could become a financial burden if market conditions deteriorate.

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Guidance & Outlook

Fiscal 2026 Consolidated Revenues: Expected to be approximately $33.5 billion to $35 billion.

Homes Closed in Fiscal 2026: Projected to be in the range of 86,000 to 88,000 homes.

Income Tax Rate for Fiscal 2026: Forecasted to be approximately 24.5%.

Cash Flow from Operations in Fiscal 2026: Expected to generate at least $3 billion.

Stock Repurchase Plan for Fiscal 2026: Plan to purchase approximately $2.5 billion of common stock.

Dividends for Fiscal 2026: Expected to pay around $500 million in dividends.

First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Consolidated Revenues: Projected to be in the range of $6.3 billion to $6.8 billion.

First Quarter Homes Closed: Expected to be in the range of 17,100 to 17,600 homes.

First Quarter Home Sales Gross Margin: Anticipated to be in the range of 20% to 20.5%.

First Quarter Consolidated Pretax Profit Margin: Expected to be in the range of 11.3% to 11.8%.

First Quarter Income Tax Rate: Forecasted to be approximately 24.5%.

Medium to Long-Term Housing Market Outlook: Positive outlook for the housing market over the medium to long term.

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Shareholder Return Plan

Dividends paid in Q4 2025: $118 million

Dividends paid in fiscal 2025: $495 million

Dividend growth: Fiscal 2026 marks the 12th consecutive year of dividend growth with a new quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share, a 13% annualized increase compared to the prior year.

Share repurchases in Q4 2025: 4.6 million shares repurchased for $689 million

Share repurchases in fiscal 2025: 30.7 million shares repurchased for $4.3 billion, reducing outstanding share count by 9% from the prior year end

Planned share repurchases in fiscal 2026: Approximately $2.5 billion planned for share repurchases

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Key Q&A

Q:How should we think about the walk from the 20% gross margin in Q4 to the 20%-20.5% in Q1, including factors like incentives, land, labor, material costs, and warranty litigation costs?

A:The 60 basis points unusual impact from litigation in Q4 is not expected to persist into Q1. Adjusting for this, the Q4 gross margin would have been 20.6%. The Q1 guide of 20%-20.5% reflects a slight decline due to the current environment and incentives. The exit gross margin at the end of Q4 was lower than anticipated.

Q:How quickly can you ramp starts to meet demand if it exceeds expectations, even to achieve 87,000 deliveries at the midpoint?

A:Starts were intentionally lower in Q4 to align inventory and improve cycle times. The company is positioned to increase starts as needed, supported by labor base, community positioning, and lot supply.

Q:Why does the consolidated pretax guide for Q1 seem lighter, and is it due to seasonal lightness or other factors?

A:Rental is expected to be softer in Q1, with heavier activity in the back half of the year. Lower closings volume on the homebuilding side will also result in less leverage on SG&A.

Q:Is the free cash flow guide of 80%-100% conversion still in line with expectations?

A:Yes, the company expects consistent cash flow conversion going forward. In fiscal 2025, cash flow as a percentage of revenues was 10%-11%, and the guide for fiscal 2026 is in the same range.

Q:Why did warranty expenses normalize into Q1, and what is embedded in Q1 for lot costs and stick and brick?

A:Several large settlements in Q4 impacted litigation reserves, but these are not expected to repeat in Q1. Lot costs and home closings are expected to increase incrementally, with efforts to offset this through stick and brick savings.

Q:Can you break out the difference between price discounting and rate buydowns in incentives, and did the use of below-market buydowns increase in Q4?

A:The company leaned more heavily into offering 3.99% rates, reducing the mortgage rate in the backlog to below 5%. The percentage of buyers receiving rate buydowns increased slightly to 73% in Q4 from 72% in Q3.

Q:How did demand trend through Q4, and was the year-over-year order growth due to improved demand or increased incentives?

A:Demand was choppy due to volatile rates, but incentives were leaned into heavily. The company moderated starts to align inventory and improve cycle times, which allowed for faster delivery of homes.

Q:What is the outlook for closings in fiscal 2026, and how does the company view the risks to this guidance?

A:The company is positioned to deliver on its guide, supported by a 13% increase in community count. The outlook depends on the spring selling season and market strength, but the company feels confident in its inventory and production capacity.

Q:Is there a shift in the balance between growth and gross margin, and is the company willing to sacrifice margin for volume?

A:The company responds to market conditions on a community basis. While it has flexibility to lean into market strength, it does not aim to operate at zero profit margin. Lot costs are expected to remain sticky, but stick and brick costs may decrease.

Q:What is the outlook for lot costs and development costs, and when might these begin to benefit the company?

A:Lot costs are expected to remain sticky over the next 12 months, but development costs are flattening, and new lots may see cost reductions. The company is renegotiating terms and time to control lot positions.

Q:What is the cadence of starts and community count through fiscal 2026?

A:Starts need to increase from the Q4 level of 14,600 to meet sales and delivery goals. Community count is up double digits year-over-year, which supports volume without requiring higher absorptions.

Q:What is the year-over-year increase in lot costs, and what is the expectation for fiscal 2026?

A:Lot costs increased 8% year-over-year on a per square foot basis. They are expected to remain sticky, with potential mid- to high-single-digit increases in fiscal 2026.

Q:What is driving strong order growth in Texas despite weaker commentary from other builders?

A:Texas demand is choppy, with some bright spots and elevated inventory in certain areas. The company leaned into incentives to drive absorptions, contributing to strong order growth.

Q:Has the reduced starts pace brought inventory more in line with demand, and is there room for further inventory reductions?

A:The reduced starts pace has helped balance inventory in most markets. The company is focused on repricing stick and brick costs and increasing starts pace as the sales environment allows.

Q:What is the contribution from the SK Builders acquisition, and how does the company view M&A opportunities?

A:The SK Builders acquisition added 150 houses, 400 lots, and control of 1,300 additional lots in Greenville, SC. The company continues to pursue tuck-in acquisitions to accelerate market share and leverage its platform.

Q:What is the company's view on interest rates and their impact on incentives?

A:The company continues to solve for monthly payments, offering lower rates like 3.99% to drive absorptions. Lower rates may reduce incentive costs but will be balanced with market conditions.

Q:What percentage of buyers are using adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), and how has this changed?

A:The use of ARMs has increased from 0% to mid- to high-single digits over the past year, with further gradual increases expected.

Q:What is the trend in average square footage of homes, and is there a shift toward smaller homes?

A:Average square footage has drifted down slightly, with a modest shift toward smaller homes to address affordability.

Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses

A:Management avoided providing specific details on the exact percentage of incentives or the precise breakdown of price discounting versus rate buydowns. Additionally, they did not commit to a clear bottom for gross margins or provide a detailed timeline for when lot cost reductions might significantly impact financials.

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Earnings Word Cloud

The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call

DHI Transcript

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