CSTM Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how CSTM performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, CSTM sees a +4.33% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.41% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -1.87%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
CSTM Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
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CSTM Earnings Analysis
Constellium SE Corporation (CSTM.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Safety Commitment and Goals: Constellium reported a strong commitment to safety, achieving a recordable case rate of 2.0 per million hours worked, with a target to reduce it to 1.5.
Stable Revenue Generation: Despite a decrease in shipments and revenue, Constellium's business model effectively minimizes exposure to metal price risk, allowing for stable revenue generation.
Shareholder Value Commitment: The company successfully returned $79 million to shareholders through share repurchases during the year, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder value.
Operational Efficiency Achieved: The new recycling and casting center in Neuf-Brisach was started up ahead of schedule and below budget, indicating operational efficiency and strategic investment.
Adjusted EBITDA Performance: Constellium's adjusted EBITDA for 2024, excluding the impact of the Valais flood and metal price lag, reflects a solid economic performance of $601 million, showcasing resilience in challenging market conditions.
Adjusted EBITDA Target 2025: The company is targeting adjusted EBITDA of $600 to $630 million for 2025, indicating a positive outlook for recovery and growth.
Future Financial Targets: Long-term targets have been established, aiming for adjusted EBITDA of $900 million and free cash flow of $300 million by 2028, reflecting confidence in future performance and market recovery.
Negative
Net Loss Decline: Constellium SE reported a net loss of $47 million in Q4 2024, a significant decline from a net income of $5 million in Q4 2023, indicating a substantial deterioration in financial performance.
Earnings Missed Expectations: The company missed earnings expectations with an EPS of $-0.31878, while analysts had anticipated $0.12, reflecting a significant shortfall in profitability.
Shipment Decline Analysis: Shipments decreased by 2% in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, primarily due to lower shipments in the A&T and AS&I segments, which could indicate weakening demand in key markets.
Q4 2024 Revenue Decline: Revenue for Q4 2024 was $1.7 billion, down 1% from the previous year, driven by lower shipments and unfavorable price and mix, suggesting challenges in maintaining sales levels.
Decline in Adjusted EBITDA: Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $125 million, down from $178 million in Q4 2023, highlighting a decline in operational efficiency and profitability.
Cash Flow Challenges: Free cash flow was negative $100 million for the year 2024, indicating cash flow challenges, despite a potential positive cash flow of $30 million when excluding the flood impact.
Operational Disruptions Impact: The company faced significant operational disruptions due to extreme weather conditions and flooding, which negatively impacted production and financial results, particularly at the Valais facility.
A&T Segment EBITDA Decline: The A&T segment's adjusted EBITDA decreased by 33% in Q4 2024 compared to the previous year, reflecting ongoing weakness in commercial transportation and general industrial markets.
P&K Segment EBITDA Decline: The P&K segment also saw a 34% decrease in adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2024, driven by lower shipments in automotive and unfavorable metal costs, indicating broader market challenges.
AS&I Segment Decline: The AS&I segment's adjusted EBITDA plummeted by 83% in Q4 2024, with automotive shipments down 12%, suggesting severe demand weakness in this critical area.
CSTM FAQs
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CSTM Earning Call Sentiment
Constellium SE (NYSE:CSTM) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
CSTM.N
0.68%Positive
The earnings call reveals several concerning factors: a significant EPS miss, net loss, decreased revenue, and high leverage ratio. Despite a share buyback, the company faces weak demand in key sectors and no free cash flow guidance. The optimistic guidance for 2025 is tempered by market challenges and unclear management responses in the Q&A. Given the market cap, these negatives outweigh positives, leading to a predicted stock price decline.
