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01/11 11:06
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Despite strong financial metrics, including a solid equity ratio and increased EBITDA, uncertainties loom with regulatory challenges, potential project cancellations, and operational risks. The termination fees inflating revenue suggest vulnerability. The Q&A highlighted management's evasiveness on critical issues like Revolution Wind's future and vessel upgrades. While the backlog remains robust, limited U.S. exposure and emerging market risks temper optimism. Given these mixed signals, the stock price is likely to remain stable over the next two weeks, resulting in a neutral sentiment.
Revenue for Q2 2025 EUR 233.1 million, impacted by termination fees from the postponement of the Hornsea 4 project. Adjusted for this, there is still substantial growth compared to last year.
Equity Ratio Around 50%, indicating a solid balance sheet.
Utilization for Q2 2025 Adjusted utilization was 94.1%, which is very solid and above 90% for the quarter.
Market Cap EUR 1.7 billion.
EBITDA for Q2 2025 Substantially up compared to last year, impacted by termination fees from Hornsea 4. Adjusted for this, there is still substantial growth.
Cash Flow from Operating Activities for Q2 2025 Up EUR 50 million in the quarter.
Backlog EUR 2.5 billion, slightly increased from Q1 2025 despite the removal of the Hornsea 4 project.
CapEx for Q2 2025 As expected, growing with vessel deliveries and installments.
Cash Position EUR 51 million, excluding termination fees.
Wind Keeper: Delivered a long-term contract with Vestas for a 3-year period with an additional 2.5 years of options. Tailored upgrades are planned before commercial operation in Q1 2026.
Nexra Service Concept: Introduced to address increasing demand for O&M services, especially for larger turbines. The Wind Keeper is the first evidence of this concept in the market.
New Builds: Wind Ally and Wind Mover are ahead of schedule, with deliveries expected in Q3 and Q4 2025, respectively. Both vessels have contracts lined up immediately after delivery.
Market Expansion: Operating seven vessels globally, including two in Taiwan and two in North America. Entered into a new project in Taiwan (Formosa 4) with installation planned for 2028.
Emerging Markets: Exploring opportunities in Vietnam and Brazil for offshore wind projects, indicating long-term market potential.
Backlog: Stands at EUR 2.5 billion, with 97% of projects having final investment decisions. Despite the removal of Hornsea 4, backlog remains strong.
Fleet Utilization: Adjusted utilization for Q2 2025 was 94.1%, reflecting strong operational performance.
Financial Performance: Revenue for Q2 2025 was EUR 233.1 million, significantly impacted by termination fees from Hornsea 4. EBITDA grew from EUR 32 million to EUR 189 million year-over-year.
Strategic Fleet Expansion: Acquired Wind Keeper at an attractive price and secured a long-term contract with Vestas, enhancing fleet capabilities.
Sustainability Initiatives: Focused on decarbonization, including shore power upgrades, biofuel testing, and energy efficiency improvements for legacy vessels.
O&M Market Focus: Launched Nexra to cater to the growing demand for O&M services, particularly for complex sites and larger turbines.
Market Calibration and Delays: The market is undergoing a period of recalibration due to unachievable targets and local auction failures in regions like Denmark, Germany, and the UK. This has led to project delays and shifting timelines, particularly for projects closer to 2030.
Hornsea 4 Project Delay: The delay and removal of the Hornsea 4 project from the backlog have impacted the company's project pipeline, although the backlog remains strong at EUR 2.5 billion.
Supply Chain and Vessel Undersupply: There is an anticipated undersupply of efficient vessels, particularly for foundation installation, starting in 2029. This could impact the company's ability to meet demand for offshore wind projects.
Economic and Regulatory Challenges: Economic uncertainties and regulatory hurdles in key markets, including auction failures and recalibrations, are affecting project timelines and market conditions.
Operational Risks: The company faces risks related to timely vessel deliveries, execution of projects, and maintaining operational efficiency amidst a growing fleet and complex projects.
Financial Risks: The company's financials are impacted by termination fees and the need to secure funding for future vessel deliveries, such as the Wind Apex in 2027.
Emerging Market Risks: While new markets like Vietnam and Brazil are emerging, they represent long-term opportunities with inherent uncertainties and risks.
Full Year Guidance for 2025: Revenue is projected to be between EUR 588 million to EUR 628 million, and EBITDA is expected to range from EUR 381 million to EUR 421 million. This includes the impact of termination fees from the Hornsea 4 project.
Wind Keeper Upgrades and Deployment: The Wind Keeper vessel will undergo tailored upgrades to align with Cadeler's operating model and will commence operations for Vestas in Q1 2026 under a long-term contract.
New Vessel Deliveries: The Wind Ally is expected to be delivered by the end of September 2025, ahead of schedule, and will begin work on the Hornsea 3 project. The Wind Mover is also expected to be delivered in Q4 2025, slightly ahead of schedule.
Backlog and Future Projects: The backlog stands at EUR 2.5 billion, with 97% of projects having final investment decisions. A new project, Formosa 4 in Taiwan, is scheduled for installation in 2028.
Market Trends and Strategic Outlook: The company anticipates a recalibration in the offshore wind market, with some projects facing delays but an overall positive long-term outlook. Significant auctions, such as the U.K.'s AR7, are expected to drive future demand.
O&M Market Expansion: The Nexra service concept is being developed to meet increasing demand for operations and maintenance (O&M) services, particularly for larger turbines. The Wind Keeper and other vessels are expected to play a key role in this market.
Sustainability Initiatives: Efforts include shore power upgrades for O-class vessels, biofuel testing, and the development of a human rights strategy. These initiatives aim to reduce the carbon footprint and enhance operational efficiency.
Undersupply of Vessels: An undersupply of efficient foundation installation vessels is anticipated by 2029, which could create opportunities for Cadeler's fleet.
The selected topic was not discussed during the call.
Despite potential risks like supply chain disruptions and economic uncertainties, Cadeler's strong financial performance, high utilization rates, and record backlog provide a positive outlook. The Q&A reveals confidence in future projects and vessel undersupply, suggesting strong demand. While some management responses were unclear, the overall sentiment remains positive, supported by high operational cash flow and a solid equity ratio.
Despite strong financial metrics, including a solid equity ratio and increased EBITDA, uncertainties loom with regulatory challenges, potential project cancellations, and operational risks. The termination fees inflating revenue suggest vulnerability. The Q&A highlighted management's evasiveness on critical issues like Revolution Wind's future and vessel upgrades. While the backlog remains robust, limited U.S. exposure and emerging market risks temper optimism. Given these mixed signals, the stock price is likely to remain stable over the next two weeks, resulting in a neutral sentiment.
Cadeler's earnings call presents a mixed picture. Financially, the company shows strong revenue growth and a robust backlog, yet faces challenges like regulatory issues and supply chain concerns. The Q&A section reveals uncertainties in project timelines and management's vague responses. Despite positive revenue and EBITDA guidance, the lack of shareholder return plans and competitive pressures dampen sentiment. Given these factors, the stock price is expected to remain stable, with potential slight fluctuations, leading to a neutral prediction for the next two weeks.
The earnings call highlights significant revenue and EBITDA growth, with a strong backlog and operational cash flow. Despite increased SG&A expenses, the financial metrics are robust. The Q&A reveals positive sentiment towards contract economics and market opportunities in Europe, though there are concerns about newbuild costs and unclear management responses. No shareholder return plan was announced, but the overall financial health and optimistic guidance suggest a positive stock price movement.
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