Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
The earnings call summary shows strong financial performance with expected revenue and operating profit growth, alongside successful product launches and strategic initiatives. The Q&A section reinforces this with positive impacts from weather and product campaigns, confidence in medium-term growth, and resolved commercial agreements. However, some areas like Indonesia's performance and digital capabilities lacked detailed insights. Overall, the positive aspects outweigh the negatives, suggesting a positive stock price movement over the next two weeks.
Key Financial Performance
Revenue EUR 10.3 billion, up 2.5% year-over-year. Growth driven by consistent revenue per unit case growth of 3.8%, supported by earlier headline pricing in GB, favorable pack mix, and promotional optimization. However, impacted by unfavorable geographic mix due to volume decline in Indonesia.
Operating Profit EUR 1.4 billion, up 7.2% year-over-year. Growth driven by strong top-line performance and efficiency programs, with operating margin expansion of 60 basis points to 13.5%.
Comparable Free Cash Flow EUR 425 million in H1, after investments in capacity, new aseptic lines, ARTD capacity, and coolers. On track to deliver at least EUR 1.7 billion for the year.
Volume Growth Comparable volumes up 0.3% year-over-year, despite challenges in Indonesia. Excluding Indonesia, volumes were up around 1%, supported by Europe returning to volume growth in Q2.
Revenue Per Unit Case Growth of 3.8% year-over-year, driven by positive headline pricing, promotional optimization, and favorable pack mix.
Cost of Sales Per Unit Case Increased by 3.6% year-over-year, reflecting higher concentrate costs, incidence pricing model, and increased soft drinks taxes.
Cash Returns to Shareholders Over EUR 800 million in H1, including EUR 460 million in share buybacks and a dividend payout in line with the annualized policy of around 50%.
Monster Energy Volumes Up nearly 15% year-over-year, driven by innovation and distribution gains, with Ultra and Zero variants up over 20%.
Fanta Zero and Sprite Zero Volumes Fanta Zero volumes grew by around 7% and Sprite Zero by around 13% year-over-year.
ARTD Category Volumes Up around 9% year-over-year, supported by new flavor variants and product launches.
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Operating Highlights
Coca-Cola trademark: Remains the biggest FMCG brand in Europe, supported by campaigns like 'Share a Coke' and 'This Is My Taste' for Diet Coke.
Monster: Achieved nearly 15% volume growth, with Ultra and Zero variants growing over 20%. Retail value share in energy increased by 140 basis points.
Fanta Zero and Sprite Zero: Fanta Zero volumes grew by 7%, and Sprite Zero by 13%.
ARTD (Alcohol Ready-to-Drink): Total volumes up 9%, with new flavor variants for Absolut Sprite and the launch of Bacardi and Coke.
Frestea: Reformulated and relaunched in Indonesia with new flavors like passion fruit and apple with lemongrass.
Indonesia: Faced a weaker consumer backdrop, impacting group volumes by 1% in Q2. Transformation efforts include closing 3 single-line plants and shifting to a partner distributor model.
Philippines: Performed well despite strong comparables from last year. Transition to Fuze Tea platform ahead of plan.
Europe: Returned to volume growth in Q2, supported by Easter timing and better weather. Coca-Cola trademark remains strong.
Efficiency Programs: On track to deliver EUR 350-400 million in savings by 2028. Includes rationalizing distribution sites in Germany and consolidating production in France.
Shared Services: Opened a new integrated shared service center in Manila, complementing existing operations in Bulgaria.
Digital and AI: Investments in tools like RED One and KAM 360 are enhancing sales and operational efficiency. Piloting a new eB2B platform in Spain.
Sustainability: Invested in climate tech, including wastewater-to-electricity conversion. Retained inclusion on CDP's A-List for Climate for the 9th year.
Technology Platform: Transitioning to S/4HANA to unify data and simplify processes, starting with Germany in H2.
Alcohol Ready-to-Drink (ARTD): Ended relationship with Beam Suntory to align portfolio with Coca-Cola Company, focusing on brands like Bacardi and Coke.
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Risk or Challenges
Market Conditions in Indonesia: The macroeconomic slowdown in Indonesia is impacting household consumption, affecting local, regional, and international brands alike. This has led to a weaker consumer backdrop and slower-than-expected trajectory, impacting group volumes by around 1% in Q2.
Competitive Pressures: The market remains highly competitive, requiring a multiyear view on promotional and pricing strategies to drive profitable revenue growth while maintaining affordability and relevance for consumers.
Regulatory and Taxation Challenges: Cost of sales per unit case increased by 3.6%, partly due to higher concentrate costs through the incidence pricing model and the increase in soft drinks taxes.
Supply Chain and Operational Adjustments: The company is undergoing significant operational changes, including the closure of three single-line production sites in Indonesia and the transition to a partner distributor model in Bali and Java. These changes aim to improve efficiency but may pose short-term disruptions.
Economic Uncertainties in Key Markets: Flooding in the Philippines and ongoing cost-of-living challenges in Europe are impacting consumer behavior and market dynamics.
Strategic Execution Risks: The transition from Beam Suntory in Australia and Nestea to Fuze Tea in Spain, while strategically aligned, creates near-term headwinds due to higher revenue per unit case from the previous partnerships.
Technological and Digital Transformation: The ongoing transition to the S/4HANA technology platform and other digital tools, while promising long-term benefits, involves complexities and risks associated with system unification and process simplification.
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Guidance & Outlook
Revenue Growth: Updated full-year revenue growth guidance to a range of 3% to 4%, down from approximately 4%, due to slower-than-expected trajectory in Indonesia. European volume growth is expected to offset this slowdown.
Profit and Cash Guidance: Reaffirmed full-year profit and cash guidance, with operating profit growth expected at around 7% on an FX-neutral basis.
Cost of Sales Per Case: Expected to grow by around 2% for the year, with the second half benefiting from the exit of the Beam Suntory relationship in Australia.
Comparable Free Cash Flow: On track to deliver at least EUR 1.7 billion for the year.
Indonesia Market Outlook: Despite near-term headwinds due to macroeconomic slowdown, the company remains optimistic about long-term opportunities in Indonesia, focusing on network transformation and distribution model changes.
Digital and Technology Investments: Continued investments in technology and AI, including the rollout of the S/4HANA platform in Germany in H2, and enhancements to proprietary tools like RED One and KAM 360 to drive productivity and growth.
Alcohol Ready-to-Drink (ARTD) Category: Plans to expand in the ARTD category, including the launch of Bacardi and Coca-Cola in Australia in the coming months.
Energy Category Growth: Strong growth in the energy category, with Monster volumes up nearly 15% in H1 and plans to further leverage cooler placements to support distribution.
Ready-to-Drink Tea: Transitioning from Nestea to Fuze Tea in Spain, with performance ahead of plan. New flavors and packaging for Frestea in Indonesia to be rolled out in the coming months.
Sustainability Initiatives: Ongoing investments in sustainability-focused technology, including trials of renewable electricity generation from wastewater at a site in GB.
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Shareholder Return Plan
Dividend payout policy: The company has paid a dividend in line with its annualized payout policy of around 50%.
Interim dividend: The first half interim dividend was EUR 0.79 per share.
Share buybacks: The company has completed around EUR 460 million of share buybacks this year.
Total cash returns to shareholders: Cash returns to shareholders exceeded EUR 800 million, including share buybacks and dividends.
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Key Q&A
Q:What are the drivers of the expected acceleration in top-line growth in the second half of the year?
A:The acceleration is driven by volume growth, strong price/mix per case, and favorable pricing in place through the end of the year. Additionally, geographical mix benefits are expected to be less impactful in the second half.
Q:What is the impact of weather and regional performance on Q3 trading?
A:Good weather in Europe, particularly in July, has positively impacted Q3 trading. The Away-from-Home segment has seen growth across various markets, with standout performance in Great Britain. In APS, flooding in the Philippines has been a challenge, but stabilization in Indonesia and strong performance in Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific Islands have been noted.
Q:Does the volume growth in Europe provide confidence in medium-term growth?
A:Yes, volume growth in Europe, particularly in Q2, provides confidence in medium-term growth. Campaigns like Star Wars, EPL in the U.K., and innovations in Fanta and Sprite are expected to drive further volume growth. Away-from-Home growth and initiatives like Share a Coke and Monster placements in non-typical outlets also contribute to confidence.
Q:Are there any significant changes in market competitiveness?
A:No significant changes in market competitiveness were noted. However, there has been some aggressive promotional pricing in Great Britain and less promo intensity in some markets due to delayed commercial agreements. Management continues to focus on sustainable value creation.
Q:What metrics are used to evaluate the success of the Share a Coke campaign?
A:Metrics include share of shelf, distribution, weekly and monthly consumption, and brand health metrics. The campaign has been well-received, particularly in single-serve formats, and has supported Away-from-Home growth.
Q:What is the outlook for Away-from-Home growth and consumer behavior?
A:Away-from-Home growth has been supported by good weather, increased office attendance, and investments in cooler placements and consumer innovation. McDonald's menu pivots have also driven traffic. Management remains focused on affordability and premiumization to cater to diverse consumer needs.
Q:How does Indonesia's performance impact medium-term guidance?
A:Indonesia's performance does not significantly impact medium-term guidance. While it remains a headwind, it is a relatively small part of the business. Management is not assuming a significant turnaround in Indonesia for medium-term growth but sees long-term opportunities.
Q:What is the hedging status for COGS in 2025 and 2026?
A:For 2025, over 90% of commodities are hedged, and for 2026, around 60% are hedged. Management expects relatively flat commodity costs into 2026.
Q:What is the progress on the Australian margin turnaround story?
A:Australia has seen revenue growth at an 8% CAGR since 2021, with operating profit margin accretion. Investments in capacity, portfolio rationalization, and shared service capabilities have contributed to this progress. Management sees further opportunities for margin expansion.
Q:How has the Jack & Coke and ARTD initiatives performed?
A:The Jack & Coke initiative and other ARTD initiatives have performed well, particularly in Great Britain. A portfolio approach, including Bacardi and Coke and Sprite and Absolut, has driven growth. Management sees continued momentum and opportunities for expansion.
Q:What is the outlook for achieving the '4 and more' growth ambition?
A:Management remains confident in achieving the '4 and more' growth ambition beyond 2025. Despite some 2025 headwinds, Q2 and Q3 performance supports the midterm outlook. Portfolio expansion and smarter operations are expected to drive growth.
Q:What is the status of commercial agreements in Europe?
A:Some commercial agreements in Europe, particularly in Germany and Sweden, were delayed in Q2 but have since been resolved. There are no lingering effects expected in the second half of the year.
Q:What is the progress on digital capabilities and trade management in Europe?
A:Digital capabilities have improved, with over EUR 3 billion in revenue through the myccep.com platform. In fragmented trade, over 70% of revenue is now visible at the outlet level. Management is also rolling out broader eB2B platforms to enhance market development.
Q:What is the status of comparable free cash flow and guidance?
A:Comparable free cash flow is slightly below last year due to working capital phasing but is expected to meet the full-year guidance of at least EUR 1.7 billion. Indonesia's performance is not expected to significantly impact free cash flow.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided providing specific details on the medium-term impact of Indonesia's performance, stating that it is a relatively small part of the business and not a significant driver of medium-term growth. Additionally, while discussing the Jack & Coke and ARTD initiatives, management did not provide specific numerical metrics or detailed insights into challenges faced. Similarly, the response to the question on digital capabilities and trade management lacked specific examples of low-hanging fruit or quantifiable outcomes.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
Beam Suntory
Damian
Division Edward
EUR share
Europe APS
FX basis
Inc Research
Investment
LLC Research
Research Division
Suntory relationship
backdrop Indonesia
basis point
buyback
campaign
can
capability
case unit
cash return
center Manila
colleague
core
course
distribution
example
exit Beam
highlight
investor event
production
productivity
relationship Australia
return EUR
sale
service center
site
source
tax
technology
CCEP Transcript
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive8-6
The earnings call summary shows strong financial performance with expected revenue and operating profit growth, alongside successful product launches and strategic initiatives. The Q&A section reinforces this with positive impacts from weather and product campaigns, confidence in medium-term growth, and resolved commercial agreements. However, some areas like Indonesia's performance and digital capabilities lacked detailed insights. Overall, the positive aspects outweigh the negatives, suggesting a positive stock price movement over the next two weeks.
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown4-29
The earnings call presents a mixed picture. While there is positive momentum in some regions like the Philippines and Europe, challenges persist in Germany, France, and Indonesia due to regulatory and economic factors. The ongoing share buyback and dividend declaration are positive, but volume declines and supply chain issues temper enthusiasm. The Q&A section reflects cautious optimism but highlights unresolved issues, particularly in France. Overall, the sentiment is neutral, as positive factors are offset by significant risks and uncertainties.
Earnings call transcript: Coca-Cola Europacific Q4 2024 sees stock rise
Positive2-14
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance with revenue and operating profit growth, a new share buyback program, and increased dividends. Despite a slight revenue guidance reduction, the company's confidence in its free cash flow and strategic investments in key markets like The Philippines is promising. The Q&A reveals management's optimistic outlook, although some responses lacked clarity. Overall, the positive financial metrics, shareholder returns, and strategic investments suggest a positive stock reaction.
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown11-5
The earnings call presents mixed signals. Financial performance shows modest revenue growth (2.4%) and a stable dividend increase (7%), but volume growth is flat, with some regional declines. Positive guidance and strong cash flow are offset by competitive and regulatory pressures, supply chain challenges, and economic factors. The Q&A reveals uncertainties in consumer demand and management's lack of clarity on future expectations. Despite positive shareholder returns, the overall sentiment is balanced by these risks and uncertainties, leading to a neutral prediction for the stock price movement.
CCEP Report
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