BMBL Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how BMBL performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, BMBL sees a +12.68% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +2.18% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.43%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
BMBL Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
261.65M
-4.38%
-4.37%
Gross Margin
63.30%
-1.57%
-1.43%
Operating Margin
15.37%
2.19%
-21.38%
Net Margin
3.56%
130.43%
-101.15%
EPS
0.04
121.05%
-100.78%
No Data Available
BMBL Earnings Analysis
Bumble Inc Corporation (BMBL.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Strong Financial Performance: Total revenue and adjusted EBITDA came in at the high ends of their respective ranges, indicating strong financial performance.
Revenue Outperformance Strategy: Bumble App revenue outperformed guidance, showcasing effective business strategies.
Strong Cash Management: Free cash flow of $114 million for the year demonstrates strong cash management and operational efficiency.
Product Roadmap Progress: The company achieved solid progress on its product roadmap, indicating a commitment to innovation and customer satisfaction.
User Safety Enhancement: The introduction of new features such as ID Verification and AI-assisted tools aims to enhance user safety and engagement, reflecting a focus on customer needs.
Core Business Focus: The strategic decision to focus on core business by sunsetting Fruitz and Official shows a commitment to operational efficiency and resource allocation.
Leadership Transition Benefits: The leadership transition back to Whitney Wolfe Herd is seen as a positive move, bringing renewed energy and vision to the company.
Ecosystem Enhancement Strategy: Bumble's commitment to strengthening its ecosystem and enhancing customer experiences positions it well for future growth.
Negative
Earnings Miss Report: Bumble Inc. missed earnings expectations with a reported EPS of $0.1809, falling short of the expected $0.19.
Q4 Revenue Analysis: Total revenue for Q4 was $262 million, but this included an unfavorable impact from foreign exchange (FX) of approximately $3 million.
Revenue Decline Challenges: Bumble App revenue decreased by 4% year-over-year, despite coming in above guidance, indicating potential challenges in sustaining growth.
User Retention Concerns: The number of paying users declined by 57,000 sequentially, raising concerns about user retention and engagement.
ARPPU Decline Analysis: Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU) declined by 8% to $25.17, primarily due to a geographic mix shift, which could indicate issues with monetization strategies.
User Decline Anticipation: The company anticipates a sequential decline in paying users in Q1 2025, estimating a drop of 100,000 to 120,000 users as they focus on ecosystem strengthening.
Revenue Headwind Challenges: The closure of the Fruitz and Official apps is expected to result in a revenue headwind of approximately $12 million for the year, indicating challenges in maintaining multiple platforms.
Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook: Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 is expected to be between $60 million and $63 million, representing a margin contraction to 25%, reflecting the impact of lower revenue and ongoing investments.
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BMBL Earning Call Sentiment
Bumble Inc. (NASDAQ:BMBL) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
BMBL.O
2.06%Positive
The earnings call presents several challenges: a decline in revenue, margin contraction, and unclear management responses on critical issues, such as margin contraction. Despite a strong share repurchase program, the guidance indicates revenue decline and margin pressure. The market cap suggests moderate sensitivity to negative news. Therefore, the stock price is likely to experience a negative movement of -2% to -8% over the next two weeks.
