AVA Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AVA performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AVA sees a -1.85% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.04% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.85%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AVA Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
532.77M
2.98%
35.31%
Gross Margin
45.78%
2.83%
-1.95%
Operating Margin
19.12%
-0.26%
54.32%
Net Margin
12.61%
-22.45%
168.30%
EPS
0.84
-22.22%
265.22%
No Data Available
AVA Earnings Analysis
Avista Corp Corporation (AVA.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Earnings Per Share Growth: Consolidated earnings for Q4 2024 were $0.84 per diluted share, showing a slight increase in full-year earnings to $2.29 per diluted share compared to $2.24 in 2023.
Utility Earnings Resilience: Utility earnings improved nearly 5% from 2023, demonstrating resilience despite higher costs.
Rate Case Outcome Benefits: The Washington general rate case concluded positively, increasing the return on equity to 9.8%, benefiting both customers and shareholders.
Infrastructure Investment Boost: Record investment of $510 million in Avista Utilities to enhance service and infrastructure.
Regional Reliability Improvement: The North Plains connector project is expected to improve regional reliability and resource adequacy, with plans for a 375 megawatt generation RFP by 2029.
Wildfire Mitigation Success: Successful implementation of wildfire mitigation plans, exceeding targets for grid hardening and vegetation management, enhancing safety and reliability.
Dividend Increase Commitment: The company initiated a dividend increase of over 3% for the 23rd consecutive year, reflecting commitment to shareholder returns.
Earnings Guidance for 2025: Projected earnings guidance for 2025 is set between $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share, indicating confidence in future performance.
Negative
Earnings Decline Analysis: Consolidated earnings for Q4 2024 were $0.84 per diluted share, down from $1.08 in Q4 2023, indicating a decline in profitability.
Energy Recovery Expense Impact: The company recognized a pretax expense of $8 million under the energy recovery mechanism (ERM) due to poor hydro and power supply costs, which negatively impacted earnings.
Loss from Other Businesses: A loss of $0.09 per diluted share was reported from other businesses, attributed to market valuations, early-stage joint ventures, and borrowing costs, indicating challenges in these segments.
Energy Recovery Mechanism Decision: The Washington Commission did not support the request to modify the energy recovery mechanism, which could limit future earnings potential and flexibility in managing power supply costs.
2025 Expense Guidance: The guidance for 2025 includes an expected $0.12 expense from the ERM, reflecting ongoing challenges in power supply cost management and market conditions.
O&M Expense Increase: Operating and maintenance (O&M) expenses are projected to increase by 15% in 2025, which could pressure margins despite revenue recovery mechanisms in place.
Projected Return on Equity: The expected return on equity at Avista Utilities is projected to be lower at 8.8%, indicating potential challenges in achieving higher returns for shareholders.
Earnings Contribution Uncertainty: The company anticipates zero contribution to earnings from other businesses in 2025, highlighting uncertainty and volatility in this area.
AVA FAQs
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AVA Earning Call Sentiment
Avista Corporation (AVA) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
AVA.N
-0.15%Positive
The earnings call reveals several concerning factors: lowered earnings guidance, increased operational costs, and a significant EPS decline in Q4 2024. Despite a slight annual EPS increase and a modest dividend hike, the lack of a share repurchase program and potential investment risks contribute to a negative outlook. The Q&A highlighted uncertainties in regulatory outcomes and growth expectations. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, likely resulting in a negative stock movement of -2% to -8% over the next two weeks.
