APG Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how APG performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, APG sees a -2.28% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.91% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.91%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
APG Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.86B
5.80%
1.92%
Gross Margin
30.90%
6.99%
-0.48%
Operating Margin
6.07%
26.99%
-24.60%
Net Margin
3.60%
153.52%
-4.76%
EPS
-0.10
-90.83%
-140.00%
No Data Available
APG Earnings Analysis
APi Group Corp Corporation (APG.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Revenue Increase Driven by Growth: Record net revenues of $7 billion in 2024, a 1.3% increase driven by acquisitions and strong organic growth in inspection, service, and monitoring revenues.
EBITDA Margin Expansion: Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by 140 basis points to 12.7%, with expectations to surpass 13% in 2025.
Record Free Cash Flow: Achieved record adjusted free cash flow of $668 million, representing a 75% conversion of adjusted EBITDA, allowing for debt repayment and reduced net leverage to 2.2 times.
Inspection Revenue Growth: Double-digit growth in inspection revenues in the U.S. life safety business for the year, marking the 18th consecutive quarter of growth in this area.
Revenue Mix Improvement: Increased the mix of inspection, service, and monitoring revenues from 52% in 2023 to 54% in 2024, moving towards a long-term target of 60%.
Internal Controls Remediation Success: Successfully remediated all prior year material weaknesses in internal controls over financial reporting, concluding that controls were effective as of December 31, 2024.
2025 Revenue Projections: Anticipated full-year 2025 net revenues of $7.3 billion to $7.5 billion, indicating a return to traditional rates of organic growth driven by high single-digit growth in inspection service and monitoring revenues.
Margin Expansion Plans: Plans for continued margin expansion in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA expected to grow by approximately 10% to 15% on a fixed currency basis.
Negative
Revenue Growth Slowdown: Net revenues grew by only 1.3% in 2024, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to previous years.
Specialty Services Revenue Decline: Specialty services reported an 11.8% decline in revenues for Q4 2024, driven by divestitures and project delays.
Specialty Services Decline: There was a 7.6% organic decline in specialty services, highlighting challenges in that segment.
Specialty Services Margin Decline: Adjusted gross margin for specialty services decreased by 80 basis points, primarily due to lower fixed cost absorption and stranded costs from delays.
Specialty Services Earnings Decline: Segment earnings for specialty services decreased by 22% for the quarter, indicating significant operational challenges.
Project Delays Impact Performance: The company faced higher-than-expected delays in certain customer projects, particularly in HVAC and specialty businesses, impacting overall performance.
Cash Flow vs. Interest Expenses: Despite record free cash flow, the company still reported increased interest expenses, which could affect future profitability.
Revenue Decline Forecast: The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a low single-digit organic net revenue decline at the midpoint, suggesting ongoing challenges in revenue generation.
APG FAQs
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APG Earning Call Sentiment
APi Group Corporation (APG) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
APG.N
-2.72%Positive
The earnings call indicates strong financial performance with record high revenue, EBITDA growth, and improved margins. Despite reduced revenue guidance, optimistic guidance for 2025, healthy backlog, and resilience against economic downturns support positive sentiment. The Q&A highlights disciplined project selection and strategic M&A, with management addressing concerns effectively. These factors, combined with a robust free cash flow and low leverage, suggest a positive stock price movement, especially given the focus on high-margin service revenues.
