Should You Buy Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc (AGIO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
27.610
1 Day change
-2.47%
52 Week Range
46.000
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy now for a long-term position. AGIO is trading around 28.66 pre-market, which is below most recent Wall Street price targets (commonly 34–40+, with one outlier bearish/neutral view) and comes right after a major de-risking event (FDA approval of Aqvesme/mitapivat in thalassemia). Technicals are neutral-to-slightly-bullish near support, hedge fund buying is strong, and options positioning is clearly call-skewed (bullish). For a beginner long-term investor with $50k–$100k and no desire to wait for a perfect entry, the current zone is an acceptable entry point.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: Pre-market ~28.66, sitting above Pivot 28.062 (near-term support) and below R1 29.468 (near-term resistance). A break above ~29.47 would improve momentum; a loss of ~28.06 increases risk of a move toward S1 26.657.
Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.268) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum exists but is cooling. RSI(6) ~60.8 is neutral-to-slightly-strong (not overbought). Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation after a catalyst rather than a clear trending move.
Near-term bias: Mild bullish/neutral consolidation; technically acceptable for entry while holding above ~28.06.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Options flow is bullish-skewed—puts are relatively light versus calls (volume put/call 0.07 is very call-heavy; OI put/call 0.69 also favors calls).
Volatility/risk pricing: 30D implied vol is extremely elevated (~253%) with IV percentile at 100, meaning the options market is pricing unusually large moves. This often happens around major catalysts (recent approval/launch expectations and upcoming earnings) and implies bigger-than-normal swings can occur even if the long-term thesis is intact.
Takeaway: Positioning suggests optimism, but the market is also pricing high uncertainty/large moves.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
1
Positive Catalysts
1) FDA approval of Aqvesme (mitapivat) for both transfusion-dependent and non-transfusion-dependent alpha-/beta-thalassemia—material commercial de-risking.
3) High implied volatility: options market expects big swings; short-term drawdowns are plausible.
4) Pattern-based forward stats provided: similar-pattern analysis implies a negative skew over the next month (-5.55% expectation), suggesting near-term chop/pullback risk even if long-term remains constructive.
5) No fresh news in the last week—after a big catalyst, stocks can consolidate without new incremental positives.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $12.88M (+43.69% YoY), showing top-line growth off a small base.
- Net Income: -$103.433M (down -110.91% YoY), losses widened materially.
- EPS: -1.78 (down -110.97% YoY).
- Gross Margin: 86.96% (down -4.72% YoY), still very high but slightly compressed.
Read-through: Revenue growth is improving, but the business is still in heavy spend mode ahead of/into commercialization, which is typical for this stage but keeps near-term earnings weak.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings/targets have generally moved up following FDA approval, with multiple firms reaffirming Buy/Outperform and raising targets (examples: Leerink to $40, Truist to $38, Citi Buy $38, BofA Buy $35, H.C. Wainwright Buy $62). The main notable dissent is JPMorgan maintaining Neutral with a $25 target (below the current ~28.7), indicating at least one major bank sees limited upside at current levels.
Wall Street pros: Approval de-risks the story; broad thalassemia label; strong revenue potential and expanding franchise narrative.
Wall Street cons: Safety/monitoring (REMS/black box) may slow early launch; profitability remains distant; uptake curve uncertainty.
Wall Street analysts forecast AGIO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGIO is 36.38 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 62 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AGIO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGIO is 36.38 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 62 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 28.310
Low
25
Averages
36.38
High
62
Current: 28.310
Low
25
Averages
36.38
High
62
JPMorgan
Neutral
maintain
$20 -> $25
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$20 -> $25
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
maintain
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Agios Pharmaceuticals to $25 from $20 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the approval of Aqvesme.
BofA
Buy
maintain
$34 -> $35
2026-01-06
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$34 -> $35
2026-01-06
maintain
Buy
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on Agios Pharmaceuticals to $35 from $34 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for U.S Biopharmaceuticals under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. Over the past few months, several key items "have fallen into place," including positive data catalysts being rewarded; large-cap biopharma spending cash on M&A and in-licensing; growing backlog of companies on the private side; improving access to capital; and limited impact from drug price regulation, BofA says. The firm believes biotech is back, but the biggest concern is whether this will last.
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