ABR Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how ABR performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, ABR sees a -1.57% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.46% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +2.31%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
ABR Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
331.71M
-20.33%
-6.39%
Gross Margin
--
--
--
Operating Margin
23.42%
-14.65%
9.80%
Net Margin
22.71%
-13.98%
9.45%
EPS
0.29
-29.27%
3.57%
No Data Available
ABR Earnings Analysis
Arbor Realty Trust Inc Corporation (ABR.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Strong Q4 Performance: Despite missing earnings expectations, Arbor Realty Trust reported a solid fourth quarter and a strong overall performance for 2024, demonstrating effective execution of their business plan.
Dividend Growth Outperformance: The company has outperformed peers in key financial metrics, including dividend growth of 43% over the last five years, while most competitors have cut dividends significantly.
Loan Modification Success: Arbor Realty Trust has successfully modified $4.1 billion of loans, with borrowers committing to inject $130 million of additional capital, showcasing strong borrower relationships and proactive management.
Delinquency Reduction Success: The company has reduced delinquencies by 44% from September 30 to December 31, indicating effective management of non-performing loans.
Book Value Growth: Arbor Realty Trust has grown its book value by 26% over the last five years, contrasting with a 25% decline in net asset values among peers, highlighting strong asset management.
Strong Q4 Originations: The agency business had a strong fourth quarter, with $1.35 billion in new originations, exceeding guidance and demonstrating resilience in a challenging rate environment.
Bridge Loan Pipeline Expansion: The company has a robust pipeline for bridge loans, expecting to originate between $1.5 billion to $2 billion in 2025, which will enhance returns and diversify income streams.
Leverage Ratio Reduction: Arbor Realty Trust has successfully reduced its leverage ratio by 30% over the past two years, improving financial stability and positioning for future growth.
Negative
Earnings Miss Reported: Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. missed earnings expectations with reported EPS of $0.2908, falling short of the expected $0.42.
Agency Origination Volume Decline: The company anticipates a deceleration in agency origination volumes due to elevated interest rates, which have increased significantly, creating a challenging environment.
Impact of SOFR Decrease: A 100 basis point decrease in SOFR has reduced earnings on escrows and cash balances, impacting overall earnings.
Earnings Drag from Repositioning: The company expects a temporary drag on earnings from repositioning REO assets over the next 12 to 24 months.
Earnings Outlook Revision: The revised earnings outlook for 2025 is estimated to be in the range of $0.30 to $0.35 per quarter, indicating a decrease from previous expectations.
Impact of Legal Fees: Legal and consulting fees related to short-sell reports are expected to continue affecting earnings, estimated at $0.03 to $0.05 per share going forward.
Delinquency Increase Noted: Despite a decrease in total delinquencies, the company experienced additional delinquency during the quarter, bringing total delinquencies to approximately $819 million.
Earnings Growth Challenges: The company anticipates continued new delinquencies, especially in the current rate environment, which may hinder future earnings growth.
Core Investment Yield Decline: The average yield of core investments decreased to 8.52% from 9.04% due to a reduction in SOFR, impacting overall earnings.
Future Earnings Impact: The company expects to incur some realized losses in 2025 through repositioning certain loans with new sponsors, which may affect future earnings.
ABR FAQs
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ABR Earning Call Sentiment
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE:ABR) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
ABR.N
-0.49%Positive
The earnings call reveals several concerns: EPS and distributable earnings missed expectations, and the future earnings outlook is revised downward. Elevated legal fees and potential losses from REO assets pose risks. While there is some positive sentiment on dividend growth and loan modifications, the Q&A section highlights uncertainties, such as unclear responses on non-accrual loans and regulatory investigations. The market cap suggests moderate sensitivity to these factors, leading to an overall negative sentiment.
