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09988
BABA-W
HKD
150.800-2.000
(-1.31%)
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News
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4.5
10:25 AMaastocksNet Inflow of HKD1.8B to PING AN from Southbound Trading
Southbound Trading Inflows: PING AN (02318.HK) saw significant net inflows of HKD1.8 billion, while BABA-W (09988.HK) and XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) experienced short selling of HKD3.68 billion and HKD1.22 billion, respectively.
Southbound Trading Outflows: TENCENT (00700.HK) had a net outflow of HKD803.9 million, with short selling reaching HKD2.29 billion, indicating a notable trading activity.
Most Active Stocks: In the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, BABA-W was the most active stock with a net inflow of HKD2.1 billion, while CHINA MOBILE faced the highest outflow of HKD874.8 million.
Overall Trading Summary: The total Southbound Trading net outflow was HKD0, accounting for 45.71% of the total transaction amount of HKD133.35 billion.
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2.0
09:00 AMaastocksShort Selling Activity Reaches $42B, Representing 15.9% of Total Eligible Securities Turnover at Market Close
Short Selling Turnover: The short selling turnover in the Hong Kong market reached $42 billion, accounting for 15.9% of the eligible securities turnover, a decrease from 21.1% on the previous trading day.
Top Short Selling Shares: The top five shares with the highest short selling amounts include HSCEI ETF, BABA-W, TRACKER FUND, PING AN, and TENCENT, with short selling ratios ranging from 14.976% to 45.547%.
HSCEI ETF Performance: The HSCEI ETF had the highest short selling amount at $4.51 billion, with a short selling ratio of 45.5%.
BABA-W and Others: BABA-W followed with a short selling amount of $3.68 billion (21.7% ratio), while TRACKER FUND, PING AN, and TENCENT had short selling amounts of $2.59 billion, $2.44 billion, and $2.29 billion, respectively.
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6.5
07:48 AMaastocksM Stanley Forecasts 3% Drop in Office Rental Rates This Year, Favors Office Sector Over Retail for Homebuilders
Hong Kong Office Market Trends: Morgan Stanley reports a preference for office spaces over retail, with improving vacancy rates in Central District, which is expected to see a 3% rental rate increase by 2026.
Investment Recommendations: The report favors Hongkong Land and HYSAN DEV for office investments, while advising against WHARF REIC due to market share and tenant retention risks.
Retail Sector Insights: In retail, Chinese luxury brands are preferred over Hong Kong retailers, with HANG LUNG PPT being highlighted as a better investment option.
Market Activity: Notable short selling activity was observed in various stocks, with significant ratios for WHARF REIC and LINK REIT, indicating investor caution in the current market environment.
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2.0
05:30 AMaastocksShort Selling Activity Reaches $21.4B, Representing 15.3% of Eligible Securities Turnover by Midday
Short Selling Turnover: The short selling turnover in the Hong Kong market reached $21.4 billion at midday, accounting for 15.3% of the eligible securities turnover, slightly down from 21.1% on the previous trading day.
Top Short Selling Shares: The top five shares with the highest short selling amounts include HSCEI ETF, BABA-W, TRACKER FUND, PING AN, and TENCENT, with HSCEI ETF leading at $2.39 billion and a short selling ratio of 42.0%.
Individual Share Performance: HSCEI ETF saw a price increase of 1.26%, while BABA-W and TENCENT experienced declines of 1.31% and 1.68%, respectively, despite significant short selling activity.
Short Selling Ratios: The short selling ratios for the top shares ranged from 12.7% for TENCENT to 42.0% for HSCEI ETF, indicating varying levels of investor sentiment and market speculation.
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4.0
05:03 AMaastocksCiti's Ratings and Target Prices for Chinese Internet Companies (Table)
Stock Ratings Overview: Various companies including Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com received "Buy" ratings with target prices set at US$225, US$181, and US$44 respectively, while others like Meituan and Vipshop were rated as "Neutral."
Short Selling Data: Significant short selling activity was noted for Tencent and Kuaishou, with ratios of 12.707% and 9.756%, indicating investor skepticism about these stocks.
Market Performance: Stocks such as Tencent and Kuaishou experienced positive price movements, with Tencent rising by 2.002% and Kuaishou by 2.717%, reflecting a generally favorable market sentiment.
Related News Insights: Reports highlight the valuation of China's top private companies, suggesting they are nearly half the value of the US's "Magnificent Seven," indicating a competitive landscape in the tech sector.
Money Flow
Over the past 66 trading days, overall net money flow is 616.19M, with retail investors contributing 33.47M and major investors adding 620.90M.
Net Buy $ Volume
Net Sell $ Volume
Morningstar
Morningstar
maintain
$251 -> $258
2025-11-27
Reason
The analyst rating for BABA-W (09988.HK) is influenced by several key factors outlined in the article. Morningstar's report highlights that despite a significant QoQ decline in adjusted EBITA, the management's forecast for the cloud intelligence business indicates a shift from 'accelerating' to 'high' revenue growth. The guidance for customer management revenue aligns with expectations, suggesting stability in that area.
Moreover, the broker believes that the company's business possesses a wide moat, indicating a competitive advantage, and that the market is underestimating the management's strong execution and the potential of the cloud business. This combination of factors leads to the conclusion that the company's value is still undervalued, with a fair value estimate significantly higher than the current stock price. Thus, the analyst maintains a positive outlook on BABA-W, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential despite short-term challenges.
Morningstar
Price Target
$251 -> $258
2025-11-27
maintain
The analyst rating for BABA-W (09988.HK) is influenced by several key factors outlined in the article. Morningstar's report highlights that despite a significant QoQ decline in adjusted EBITA, the management's forecast for the cloud intelligence business indicates a shift from 'accelerating' to 'high' revenue growth. The guidance for customer management revenue aligns with expectations, suggesting stability in that area.
Moreover, the broker believes that the company's business possesses a wide moat, indicating a competitive advantage, and that the market is underestimating the management's strong execution and the potential of the cloud business. This combination of factors leads to the conclusion that the company's value is still undervalued, with a fair value estimate significantly higher than the current stock price. Thus, the analyst maintains a positive outlook on BABA-W, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential despite short-term challenges.
CMBI
CMBI
Buy
downgrade
2025-11-26
Reason
The analyst rating for BABA-W (09988.HK) is maintained at "Buy" by CMBI due to several factors. The company's revenue for 2FQ26 was RMB247.8 billion, which exceeded expectations, particularly driven by a strong performance in the cloud business, which grew by 34% YoY. CMBI also noted that the company's plan to reduce losses in the instant retail business aligns with market forecasts. Despite a slight decrease in the target price from US$209.4 to US$206.4, CMBI continues to view BABA-W as a core beneficiary in the AI sector, supporting their positive rating.
CMBI
Buy
Price Target
2025-11-26
downgrade
The analyst rating for BABA-W (09988.HK) is maintained at "Buy" by CMBI due to several factors. The company's revenue for 2FQ26 was RMB247.8 billion, which exceeded expectations, particularly driven by a strong performance in the cloud business, which grew by 34% YoY. CMBI also noted that the company's plan to reduce losses in the instant retail business aligns with market forecasts. Despite a slight decrease in the target price from US$209.4 to US$206.4, CMBI continues to view BABA-W as a core beneficiary in the AI sector, supporting their positive rating.
HSBC
HSBC Global Research
Buy
maintain
$205
2025-11-26
Reason
The analyst rating from HSBC Global Research for BABA-W (09988.HK) is based on the encouraging growth of its cloud business, which accelerated to 34% year-over-year. The report highlights strong demand for AI, which is expected to continue driving robust growth in the cloud sector. The expanding backlog of AI-related demand indicates that demand exceeds supply, suggesting significant growth potential. As a result, HSBC raised its revenue forecasts for the cloud business for FY2026-2028 by 2-6%. Despite minor adjustments to overall estimations, the broker maintained a "Buy" rating and set a target price of US$205 for BABA-W's US stock and $200 for its H-shares.
HSBC
Buy
Price Target
$205
2025-11-26
maintain
The analyst rating from HSBC Global Research for BABA-W (09988.HK) is based on the encouraging growth of its cloud business, which accelerated to 34% year-over-year. The report highlights strong demand for AI, which is expected to continue driving robust growth in the cloud sector. The expanding backlog of AI-related demand indicates that demand exceeds supply, suggesting significant growth potential. As a result, HSBC raised its revenue forecasts for the cloud business for FY2026-2028 by 2-6%. Despite minor adjustments to overall estimations, the broker maintained a "Buy" rating and set a target price of US$205 for BABA-W's US stock and $200 for its H-shares.
BOCI
Buy
maintain
$187 -> $182
2025-11-26
Reason
The analyst rating for Alibaba (BABA-W) is maintained as a "Buy" due to the company's solid 2QFY26 results, which showed a robust core business. The report highlighted a 5% year-over-year increase in total revenue, driven by a 10% increase in China's core e-commerce and a 34% growth in the cloud business. Despite a slight reduction in total revenue forecasts for FY2027-28, the net profit forecast remains largely unchanged, indicating confidence in the company's performance. The target prices set by the broker further reflect their positive outlook on Alibaba's future growth.
BOCI
Buy
Price Target
$187 -> $182
2025-11-26
maintain
The analyst rating for Alibaba (BABA-W) is maintained as a "Buy" due to the company's solid 2QFY26 results, which showed a robust core business. The report highlighted a 5% year-over-year increase in total revenue, driven by a 10% increase in China's core e-commerce and a 34% growth in the cloud business. Despite a slight reduction in total revenue forecasts for FY2027-28, the net profit forecast remains largely unchanged, indicating confidence in the company's performance. The target prices set by the broker further reflect their positive outlook on Alibaba's future growth.
Nomura
Nomura
NULL
to
Buy
upgrade
$135 -> $140
2025-11-20
Reason
Nomura upgraded Baidu (BIDU.US) to a Buy rating primarily due to the growth potential of its chip design subsidiary, Kunlunxin (KLX), which is recognized as a leading domestic chip designer. The firm highlighted the favorable market conditions for KLX, particularly in light of restrictions on overseas procurement of advanced chips, positioning KLX to benefit from the increasing demand for AI technologies. Additionally, Baidu's significant increase in subscription revenue from its AI high-performance computing facility, which surged by 128% in the third quarter, further bolstered Nomura's positive outlook. The broker projected substantial revenue growth for KLX in the coming years, estimating revenues of RMB2.6 billion and RMB5.4 billion for FY2025 and FY2026, respectively. However, it was noted that Baidu's advertising business remains weak, and while new initiatives are being implemented, they are not expected to sufficiently reverse the downward trend in that segment.
Nomura
NULL
to
Buy
Price Target
$135 -> $140
2025-11-20
upgrade
Nomura upgraded Baidu (BIDU.US) to a Buy rating primarily due to the growth potential of its chip design subsidiary, Kunlunxin (KLX), which is recognized as a leading domestic chip designer. The firm highlighted the favorable market conditions for KLX, particularly in light of restrictions on overseas procurement of advanced chips, positioning KLX to benefit from the increasing demand for AI technologies. Additionally, Baidu's significant increase in subscription revenue from its AI high-performance computing facility, which surged by 128% in the third quarter, further bolstered Nomura's positive outlook. The broker projected substantial revenue growth for KLX in the coming years, estimating revenues of RMB2.6 billion and RMB5.4 billion for FY2025 and FY2026, respectively. However, it was noted that Baidu's advertising business remains weak, and while new initiatives are being implemented, they are not expected to sufficiently reverse the downward trend in that segment.
CMSI
CMSI
maintain
2025-11-18
Reason
The analyst rating for Alibaba (BABA-W, 09988.HK) is a Buy, as reiterated by CMSI. The reasons for this rating include:
1. Launch of Qianwen APP: Alibaba has officially launched its flagship AI application, which is positioned as a powerful AI assistant with features like conversational interaction, intelligent writing, and a multimodal camera.
2. Competitive Advantage: CMSI believes that Alibaba's self-built full-ecosystem product system and its free strategy provide a competitive edge over models like ChatGPT, which rely on third-party applications.
3. Strong Execution and Business Synergy: The company's strong execution capabilities and business synergy contribute to its position as a core beneficiary in the AI sector.
4. Full-Stack Technical Product System: Alibaba's comprehensive technical product system enhances its competitive position in the market.
5. Focus on User Growth: There is an emphasis on monitoring daily active user growth, which is crucial for the app's success and overall business performance.
Overall, these factors lead CMSI to consider Alibaba a top pick in the market.
CMSI
Price Target
2025-11-18
maintain
The analyst rating for Alibaba (BABA-W, 09988.HK) is a Buy, as reiterated by CMSI. The reasons for this rating include:
1. Launch of Qianwen APP: Alibaba has officially launched its flagship AI application, which is positioned as a powerful AI assistant with features like conversational interaction, intelligent writing, and a multimodal camera.
2. Competitive Advantage: CMSI believes that Alibaba's self-built full-ecosystem product system and its free strategy provide a competitive edge over models like ChatGPT, which rely on third-party applications.
3. Strong Execution and Business Synergy: The company's strong execution capabilities and business synergy contribute to its position as a core beneficiary in the AI sector.
4. Full-Stack Technical Product System: Alibaba's comprehensive technical product system enhances its competitive position in the market.
5. Focus on User Growth: There is an emphasis on monitoring daily active user growth, which is crucial for the app's success and overall business performance.
Overall, these factors lead CMSI to consider Alibaba a top pick in the market.
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Equalweight -> Underweight
downgrade
$28
2025-11-10
Reason
Morgan Stanley downgraded JD.com from Equalweight to Underweight due to several factors. The primary reason is the waning effect of China's trade-in subsidies, which have previously benefited JD.com but are now becoming less impactful. Additionally, JD.com's revenue growth is expected to slow significantly, with projections of only 5.6% year-over-year growth in 4Q25 and further decline to 4.4% next year. This slowdown, combined with anticipated losses from new business ventures, is expected to reduce the company's operating leverage and negatively impact long-term profit margins and return on equity (ROE).
Morgan Stanley
Equalweight -> Underweight
Price Target
$28
2025-11-10
downgrade
Morgan Stanley downgraded JD.com from Equalweight to Underweight due to several factors. The primary reason is the waning effect of China's trade-in subsidies, which have previously benefited JD.com but are now becoming less impactful. Additionally, JD.com's revenue growth is expected to slow significantly, with projections of only 5.6% year-over-year growth in 4Q25 and further decline to 4.4% next year. This slowdown, combined with anticipated losses from new business ventures, is expected to reduce the company's operating leverage and negatively impact long-term profit margins and return on equity (ROE).
Macquarie
Macquarie
Outperform
downgrade
2025-10-13
Reason
The analyst rating from Macquarie is based on several key factors:
1. Growth in Cloud Business: Macquarie predicts that Alibaba's cloud business will continue to accelerate growth in the current fiscal year, which is a positive indicator for the company's future performance.
2. Diversified Monetization Opportunities: The report highlights that Alibaba has more diversified monetization opportunities, suggesting potential for long-term margin expansion.
3. Robust User Traffic and Transaction Volume: Despite potential short-term losses due to rapid e-commerce activities, Macquarie expects user traffic and transaction volume trends to remain strong.
4. Valuation Comparison: The broker believes that the market's current assumption of Alibaba Cloud's valuation contribution (15-20%) is too conservative compared to Amazon Web Services (AWS), which accounts for over 50% of Amazon's equity value. This indicates that there is potential for Alibaba to narrow the valuation gap with its US peers.
Overall, these factors led Macquarie to reiterate an Outperform rating on BABA-W, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects and market position.
Macquarie
Outperform
Price Target
2025-10-13
downgrade
The analyst rating from Macquarie is based on several key factors:
1. Growth in Cloud Business: Macquarie predicts that Alibaba's cloud business will continue to accelerate growth in the current fiscal year, which is a positive indicator for the company's future performance.
2. Diversified Monetization Opportunities: The report highlights that Alibaba has more diversified monetization opportunities, suggesting potential for long-term margin expansion.
3. Robust User Traffic and Transaction Volume: Despite potential short-term losses due to rapid e-commerce activities, Macquarie expects user traffic and transaction volume trends to remain strong.
4. Valuation Comparison: The broker believes that the market's current assumption of Alibaba Cloud's valuation contribution (15-20%) is too conservative compared to Amazon Web Services (AWS), which accounts for over 50% of Amazon's equity value. This indicates that there is potential for Alibaba to narrow the valuation gap with its US peers.
Overall, these factors led Macquarie to reiterate an Outperform rating on BABA-W, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects and market position.
CICC
CICC
Outperform
maintain
$204 -> $204
2025-10-13
Reason
The analyst rating for Alibaba (BABA-W) is maintained as "Outperform" by CICC, despite trimming revenue forecasts for FY2026. The reasons for this rating include:
1. Projected Growth in Cloud Computing: CICC expects Alibaba's cloud computing revenue to grow by 30% year-over-year in 2QFY26, which is an acceleration from the previous quarter's growth. This growth is anticipated to be supported by Alibaba Cloud's supply-side advantages.
2. Valuation Boost from Cloud Computing: The expected growth in cloud computing revenue and profits is seen as a factor that could enhance Alibaba's overall valuation.
3. Target Price Maintenance: CICC has maintained a target price of USD204 for Alibaba's US stocks and HKD197 for its Hong Kong stocks, indicating confidence in the company's long-term performance despite short-term challenges.
4. Focus on AI and Innovation: The launch of new AI applications and hardware during the Yunqi Conference suggests a commitment to innovation, which could positively impact future growth.
Overall, while there are concerns about increased losses in quick commerce and other businesses, the strong outlook for cloud computing and sustained growth potential support the "Outperform" rating.
CICC
Outperform
Price Target
$204 -> $204
2025-10-13
maintain
The analyst rating for Alibaba (BABA-W) is maintained as "Outperform" by CICC, despite trimming revenue forecasts for FY2026. The reasons for this rating include:
1. Projected Growth in Cloud Computing: CICC expects Alibaba's cloud computing revenue to grow by 30% year-over-year in 2QFY26, which is an acceleration from the previous quarter's growth. This growth is anticipated to be supported by Alibaba Cloud's supply-side advantages.
2. Valuation Boost from Cloud Computing: The expected growth in cloud computing revenue and profits is seen as a factor that could enhance Alibaba's overall valuation.
3. Target Price Maintenance: CICC has maintained a target price of USD204 for Alibaba's US stocks and HKD197 for its Hong Kong stocks, indicating confidence in the company's long-term performance despite short-term challenges.
4. Focus on AI and Innovation: The launch of new AI applications and hardware during the Yunqi Conference suggests a commitment to innovation, which could positively impact future growth.
Overall, while there are concerns about increased losses in quick commerce and other businesses, the strong outlook for cloud computing and sustained growth potential support the "Outperform" rating.
CICC
CICC
Outperform
maintain
$204 -> $204
2025-10-13
Reason
The analyst rating for Alibaba (BABA-W) is maintained as "Outperform" by CICC, despite a trimmed revenue forecast for FY2026. The reasons for this rating include:
1. Projected Growth in Cloud Computing: CICC expects Alibaba's cloud computing revenue to grow by 30% year-over-year in 2QFY26, which is an acceleration from the previous quarter's growth. This growth is anticipated to be supported by Alibaba Cloud's supply-side advantages.
2. Valuation Boost from Cloud Computing: The expected growth in cloud computing revenue and profits is seen as a factor that could enhance Alibaba's overall valuation.
3. Target Price Maintenance: CICC has maintained a target price of USD204 for Alibaba's US stocks and HKD197 for its Hong Kong stocks, indicating confidence in the company's long-term performance despite short-term challenges.
4. Focus on AI and Innovation: The launch of new AI applications and hardware during the Yunqi Conference suggests a commitment to innovation, which could positively impact future growth.
Overall, while there are concerns about increased losses in certain business areas and a decline in adjusted EBITA, the strong outlook for cloud computing and strategic initiatives support the "Outperform" rating.
CICC
Outperform
Price Target
$204 -> $204
2025-10-13
maintain
The analyst rating for Alibaba (BABA-W) is maintained as "Outperform" by CICC, despite a trimmed revenue forecast for FY2026. The reasons for this rating include:
1. Projected Growth in Cloud Computing: CICC expects Alibaba's cloud computing revenue to grow by 30% year-over-year in 2QFY26, which is an acceleration from the previous quarter's growth. This growth is anticipated to be supported by Alibaba Cloud's supply-side advantages.
2. Valuation Boost from Cloud Computing: The expected growth in cloud computing revenue and profits is seen as a factor that could enhance Alibaba's overall valuation.
3. Target Price Maintenance: CICC has maintained a target price of USD204 for Alibaba's US stocks and HKD197 for its Hong Kong stocks, indicating confidence in the company's long-term performance despite short-term challenges.
4. Focus on AI and Innovation: The launch of new AI applications and hardware during the Yunqi Conference suggests a commitment to innovation, which could positively impact future growth.
Overall, while there are concerns about increased losses in certain business areas and a decline in adjusted EBITA, the strong outlook for cloud computing and strategic initiatives support the "Outperform" rating.
Valuation Metrics
Forward PE
5Y Average PE
13.10
Current PE
20.20
Overvalued PE
18.68
Undervalued PE
7.51
Forward EV/EBITDA
N/A
5Y Average EV/EBITDA
10.07
Current EV/EBITDA
0.00
Overvalued EV/EBITDA
15.10
Undervalued EV/EBITDA
5.04
Forward PS
N/A
5Y Average PS
2.17
Current PS
0.00
Overvalued PS
3.16
Undervalued PS
1.17
Financials
Annual
Quarterly
N/A
Total Revenue
N/A
Operating Profit
N/A
EPS - Diluted
N/A
Free Cash Flow
N/A
Gross Profit Margin - %
N/A
FCF Margin - %
N/A
Net Margin - %
N/A
ROIC
Trading Trends
Daily
Monthly
Buyback
Short Selling
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