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09988
BABA-W
HKD
169.100-4.200
(-2.42%)
1D
AI Analysis for 09988
AI Analysis
High
170.700
Open
170.000
VWAP
169.00
Vol
62.00M
Mkt Cap
3.00T
Low
167.000
Amount
11.00B
EV/EBITDA(TTM)
40.00
Total Shares
19.00B
EV
842.00B
EV/OCF(TTM)
47.00
P/S(TTM)
3.00
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is an investment holding company mainly engaged in the provision of technology infrastructure and marketing platforms. The Company operates its business through nine segments. The China Commerce Retail segment is engaged in the China commerce retail business. The China Commerce Wholesale segment is mainly engaged in the operation of 1688.com. The Cloud Intelligence segment provides cloud services. The International Commerce Retail segment provides customer management services, sales of goods and logistics services. The International Commerce Wholesale segment is mainly engaged in the operation of Alibaba.com. The Cainiao Represents Logistics Services segment provides fulfilment services. The Local Services segment’s revenue includes platform commissions, logistics services revenue. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment engages in the operation of Youku and Alibaba. The All Others segment is mainly engaged in the Sun Art, Freshippo and other business.
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News
8.5
01-28aastocksPinnedBABA-W CFO: Significant Increase in Southbound Shareholdings Following Stock Connects Inclusion
Stock Performance: BABA-W (09988.HK) experienced a decline of 1.200 (-0.706%) with significant short selling amounting to $726.96M and a ratio of 7.181%.
CFO's Statement: CFO Toby Xu announced at the Asian Financial Forum that the Group completed its dual primary listing in Hong Kong by the end of August 2024.
Increased Shareholding: The Group's inclusion in the Southbound Trading of Stock Connects in September 2024 led to a rise in southbound shareholding, now approximately 11% of the Company's issued capital.
Market Strategy: Xu emphasized the importance of the Hong Kong market as a vital channel for fundraising and connecting with global investors.
3.5
06:22 AMaastocksBABA-W Considers Investing in AI/Cloud Computing as Part of RMB480B Plan Over Next 3 Years: Sources Say
Investment in AI Infrastructure: Alibaba plans to increase its investment in AI infrastructure and cloud computing from RMB380 billion to RMB480 billion over the next three years.
Enhancing Computing Power: The company is enhancing its computing capabilities by developing its own chip, Zhenwu 810E, and acquiring a significant number of GPUs, including consumer-grade RTX4090 graphics cards for building inference clusters.
8.5
01:12 AMaastocksMONTAGE TECH (06809.HK) Launches IPO Today, Aiming to Raise Over $7 Billion; Minimum Investment Set at $10,796.8; Alibaba Among Key Cornerstone Investors
IPO Launch: MONTAGE TECH (06809.HK) has initiated its IPO, offering 65.89 million H shares with a price cap of HKD106.89 per share, aiming to raise approximately HKD7.043 billion. The public offering will run until February 4, with shares expected to list on February 9.
Financial Performance: The company reported a revenue of RMB4.06 billion for the first nine months of the previous year, marking a 57.8% year-over-year increase, and a profit of RMB1.63 billion, up 66.9%.
Key Investors: Cornerstone investors have committed USD450 million in shares, including major firms like JPMIMI, UBS Asset Management, and others.
Customer Base: MONTAGE TECH's primary customers include major memory module manufacturers and cloud service providers, with notable clients such as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix.
3.5
01-29aastocksAlibaba Introduces Its Own AI Chip 'Zhenwu 810E'
Stock Performance: BABA-W (09988.HK) experienced a decline of 2.193%, with short selling reaching $1.06 billion and a ratio of 9.101%.
AI Chip Launch: Alibaba's T-Head announced the launch of the high-end AI chip "Zhenwu 810E", which is deployed in Alibaba Cloud and serves over 400 clients, including State Grid and XPENG-W (09868.HK).
AI Golden Triangle: The release of the Zhenwu 810E chip marks the establishment of Alibaba's AI golden triangle, consisting of Tongyi Laboratory, Alibaba Cloud, and T-Head.
Global Position: Alibaba is now the second company worldwide, after Alphabet Inc. (GOOG.US), to have full-stack self-developed capabilities in "large model + cloud + chip".
2.0
01-29aastocksNet Inflow of HKD800.5M in Southbound Trading for TENCENT
Southbound Trading Inflows: TENCENT (00700.HK) and XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) saw significant Southbound Trading net inflows of HKD800.5 million and HKD643.1 million, respectively, while ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK), BABA-W (09988.HK), and SMIC (00981.HK) experienced notable outflows.
Short Selling Activity: TENCENT and XIAOMI had short selling amounts of $789.05 million and $1.09 billion, with respective ratios of 5.535% and 16.245%, indicating active trading interest in these stocks.
Money Flow
Over the past 66 trading days, overall net money flow is -1.00B, with retail investors contributing -29.00M and major investors adding -961.00M.
Net Buy $ Volume
Net Sell $ Volume
JPMorgan
JPMorgan
Overweight
maintain
$210
2026-01-23
Reason
The analyst rating from JPMorgan for BABA-W (09988.HK) is maintained at "Overweight" due to the potential value unlocking through the spin-off and separate listing of its AI chip division, T-Head. The report suggests that while the spin-off could significantly enhance BABA-W's valuation, the company will need time to establish independent governance and client relationships before proceeding. This cautious optimism, combined with a target price of $210, reflects the belief in BABA-W's long-term growth potential despite the challenges ahead.
JPMorgan
Overweight
Price Target
$210
2026-01-23
maintain
The analyst rating from JPMorgan for BABA-W (09988.HK) is maintained at "Overweight" due to the potential value unlocking through the spin-off and separate listing of its AI chip division, T-Head. The report suggests that while the spin-off could significantly enhance BABA-W's valuation, the company will need time to establish independent governance and client relationships before proceeding. This cautious optimism, combined with a target price of $210, reflects the belief in BABA-W's long-term growth potential despite the challenges ahead.
JPMorgan
JPMorgan
Overweight
downgrade
$230 -> $215
2026-01-09
Reason
JPMorgan's research report provided a constructive view on Alibaba (BABA-W) and recommended an Overweight rating based on the expectation that the company's share price will overcome short-term profit pressures. The analysts believe that a re-rating will occur once the monetization inflection point of Alibaba's cloud business and generative AI becomes more evident. They anticipate that Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth will accelerate as generative AI workloads transition from pilot phases to broader deployments, indicating the company's capability to capture AI-driven demand in China.
However, the report also noted a reduction in earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2027 and 2028 due to increased investments in various sectors and challenges in domestic e-commerce monetization amid sluggish consumer spending. This suggests that while the long-term outlook remains positive, there are short-term challenges that could lead to further earnings declines and increased volatility in trading.
JPMorgan
Overweight
Price Target
$230 -> $215
2026-01-09
downgrade
JPMorgan's research report provided a constructive view on Alibaba (BABA-W) and recommended an Overweight rating based on the expectation that the company's share price will overcome short-term profit pressures. The analysts believe that a re-rating will occur once the monetization inflection point of Alibaba's cloud business and generative AI becomes more evident. They anticipate that Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth will accelerate as generative AI workloads transition from pilot phases to broader deployments, indicating the company's capability to capture AI-driven demand in China.
However, the report also noted a reduction in earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2027 and 2028 due to increased investments in various sectors and challenges in domestic e-commerce monetization amid sluggish consumer spending. This suggests that while the long-term outlook remains positive, there are short-term challenges that could lead to further earnings declines and increased volatility in trading.
Morningstar
Morningstar
maintain
$251 -> $258
2025-11-27
Reason
The analyst rating for BABA-W (09988.HK) is influenced by several key factors outlined in the article. Morningstar's report highlights that despite a significant QoQ decline in adjusted EBITA, the management's forecast for the cloud intelligence business indicates a shift from 'accelerating' to 'high' revenue growth. The guidance for customer management revenue aligns with expectations, suggesting stability in that area.
Moreover, the broker believes that the company's business possesses a wide moat, indicating a competitive advantage, and that the market is underestimating the management's strong execution and the potential of the cloud business. This combination of factors leads to the conclusion that the company's value is still undervalued, with a fair value estimate significantly higher than the current stock price. Thus, the analyst maintains a positive outlook on BABA-W, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential despite short-term challenges.
Morningstar
Price Target
$251 -> $258
2025-11-27
maintain
The analyst rating for BABA-W (09988.HK) is influenced by several key factors outlined in the article. Morningstar's report highlights that despite a significant QoQ decline in adjusted EBITA, the management's forecast for the cloud intelligence business indicates a shift from 'accelerating' to 'high' revenue growth. The guidance for customer management revenue aligns with expectations, suggesting stability in that area.
Moreover, the broker believes that the company's business possesses a wide moat, indicating a competitive advantage, and that the market is underestimating the management's strong execution and the potential of the cloud business. This combination of factors leads to the conclusion that the company's value is still undervalued, with a fair value estimate significantly higher than the current stock price. Thus, the analyst maintains a positive outlook on BABA-W, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential despite short-term challenges.
CMBI
CMBI
Buy
downgrade
2025-11-26
Reason
The analyst rating for BABA-W (09988.HK) is maintained at "Buy" by CMBI due to several factors. The company's revenue for 2FQ26 was RMB247.8 billion, which exceeded expectations, particularly driven by a strong performance in the cloud business, which grew by 34% YoY. CMBI also noted that the company's plan to reduce losses in the instant retail business aligns with market forecasts. Despite a slight decrease in the target price from US$209.4 to US$206.4, CMBI continues to view BABA-W as a core beneficiary in the AI sector, supporting their positive rating.
CMBI
Buy
Price Target
2025-11-26
downgrade
The analyst rating for BABA-W (09988.HK) is maintained at "Buy" by CMBI due to several factors. The company's revenue for 2FQ26 was RMB247.8 billion, which exceeded expectations, particularly driven by a strong performance in the cloud business, which grew by 34% YoY. CMBI also noted that the company's plan to reduce losses in the instant retail business aligns with market forecasts. Despite a slight decrease in the target price from US$209.4 to US$206.4, CMBI continues to view BABA-W as a core beneficiary in the AI sector, supporting their positive rating.
HSBC
HSBC Global Research
Buy
maintain
$205
2025-11-26
Reason
The analyst rating from HSBC Global Research for BABA-W (09988.HK) is based on the encouraging growth of its cloud business, which accelerated to 34% year-over-year. The report highlights strong demand for AI, which is expected to continue driving robust growth in the cloud sector. The expanding backlog of AI-related demand indicates that demand exceeds supply, suggesting significant growth potential. As a result, HSBC raised its revenue forecasts for the cloud business for FY2026-2028 by 2-6%. Despite minor adjustments to overall estimations, the broker maintained a "Buy" rating and set a target price of US$205 for BABA-W's US stock and $200 for its H-shares.
HSBC
Buy
Price Target
$205
2025-11-26
maintain
The analyst rating from HSBC Global Research for BABA-W (09988.HK) is based on the encouraging growth of its cloud business, which accelerated to 34% year-over-year. The report highlights strong demand for AI, which is expected to continue driving robust growth in the cloud sector. The expanding backlog of AI-related demand indicates that demand exceeds supply, suggesting significant growth potential. As a result, HSBC raised its revenue forecasts for the cloud business for FY2026-2028 by 2-6%. Despite minor adjustments to overall estimations, the broker maintained a "Buy" rating and set a target price of US$205 for BABA-W's US stock and $200 for its H-shares.
BOCI
Buy
maintain
$187 -> $182
2025-11-26
Reason
The analyst rating for Alibaba (BABA-W) is maintained as a "Buy" due to the company's solid 2QFY26 results, which showed a robust core business. The report highlighted a 5% year-over-year increase in total revenue, driven by a 10% increase in China's core e-commerce and a 34% growth in the cloud business. Despite a slight reduction in total revenue forecasts for FY2027-28, the net profit forecast remains largely unchanged, indicating confidence in the company's performance. The target prices set by the broker further reflect their positive outlook on Alibaba's future growth.
BOCI
Buy
Price Target
$187 -> $182
2025-11-26
maintain
The analyst rating for Alibaba (BABA-W) is maintained as a "Buy" due to the company's solid 2QFY26 results, which showed a robust core business. The report highlighted a 5% year-over-year increase in total revenue, driven by a 10% increase in China's core e-commerce and a 34% growth in the cloud business. Despite a slight reduction in total revenue forecasts for FY2027-28, the net profit forecast remains largely unchanged, indicating confidence in the company's performance. The target prices set by the broker further reflect their positive outlook on Alibaba's future growth.
Nomura
Nomura
NULL
to
Buy
upgrade
$135 -> $140
2025-11-20
Reason
Nomura upgraded Baidu (BIDU.US) to a Buy rating primarily due to the growth potential of its chip design subsidiary, Kunlunxin (KLX), which is recognized as a leading domestic chip designer. The firm highlighted the favorable market conditions for KLX, particularly in light of restrictions on overseas procurement of advanced chips, positioning KLX to benefit from the increasing demand for AI technologies. Additionally, Baidu's significant increase in subscription revenue from its AI high-performance computing facility, which surged by 128% in the third quarter, further bolstered Nomura's positive outlook. The broker projected substantial revenue growth for KLX in the coming years, estimating revenues of RMB2.6 billion and RMB5.4 billion for FY2025 and FY2026, respectively. However, it was noted that Baidu's advertising business remains weak, and while new initiatives are being implemented, they are not expected to sufficiently reverse the downward trend in that segment.
Nomura
NULL
to
Buy
Price Target
$135 -> $140
2025-11-20
upgrade
Nomura upgraded Baidu (BIDU.US) to a Buy rating primarily due to the growth potential of its chip design subsidiary, Kunlunxin (KLX), which is recognized as a leading domestic chip designer. The firm highlighted the favorable market conditions for KLX, particularly in light of restrictions on overseas procurement of advanced chips, positioning KLX to benefit from the increasing demand for AI technologies. Additionally, Baidu's significant increase in subscription revenue from its AI high-performance computing facility, which surged by 128% in the third quarter, further bolstered Nomura's positive outlook. The broker projected substantial revenue growth for KLX in the coming years, estimating revenues of RMB2.6 billion and RMB5.4 billion for FY2025 and FY2026, respectively. However, it was noted that Baidu's advertising business remains weak, and while new initiatives are being implemented, they are not expected to sufficiently reverse the downward trend in that segment.
CMSI
CMSI
maintain
2025-11-18
Reason
The analyst rating for Alibaba (BABA-W, 09988.HK) is a Buy, as reiterated by CMSI. The reasons for this rating include:
1. Launch of Qianwen APP: Alibaba has officially launched its flagship AI application, which is positioned as a powerful AI assistant with features like conversational interaction, intelligent writing, and a multimodal camera.
2. Competitive Advantage: CMSI believes that Alibaba's self-built full-ecosystem product system and its free strategy provide a competitive edge over models like ChatGPT, which rely on third-party applications.
3. Strong Execution and Business Synergy: The company's strong execution capabilities and business synergy contribute to its position as a core beneficiary in the AI sector.
4. Full-Stack Technical Product System: Alibaba's comprehensive technical product system enhances its competitive position in the market.
5. Focus on User Growth: There is an emphasis on monitoring daily active user growth, which is crucial for the app's success and overall business performance.
Overall, these factors lead CMSI to consider Alibaba a top pick in the market.
CMSI
Price Target
2025-11-18
maintain
The analyst rating for Alibaba (BABA-W, 09988.HK) is a Buy, as reiterated by CMSI. The reasons for this rating include:
1. Launch of Qianwen APP: Alibaba has officially launched its flagship AI application, which is positioned as a powerful AI assistant with features like conversational interaction, intelligent writing, and a multimodal camera.
2. Competitive Advantage: CMSI believes that Alibaba's self-built full-ecosystem product system and its free strategy provide a competitive edge over models like ChatGPT, which rely on third-party applications.
3. Strong Execution and Business Synergy: The company's strong execution capabilities and business synergy contribute to its position as a core beneficiary in the AI sector.
4. Full-Stack Technical Product System: Alibaba's comprehensive technical product system enhances its competitive position in the market.
5. Focus on User Growth: There is an emphasis on monitoring daily active user growth, which is crucial for the app's success and overall business performance.
Overall, these factors lead CMSI to consider Alibaba a top pick in the market.
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Equalweight -> Underweight
downgrade
$28
2025-11-10
Reason
Morgan Stanley downgraded JD.com from Equalweight to Underweight due to several factors. The primary reason is the waning effect of China's trade-in subsidies, which have previously benefited JD.com but are now becoming less impactful. Additionally, JD.com's revenue growth is expected to slow significantly, with projections of only 5.6% year-over-year growth in 4Q25 and further decline to 4.4% next year. This slowdown, combined with anticipated losses from new business ventures, is expected to reduce the company's operating leverage and negatively impact long-term profit margins and return on equity (ROE).
Morgan Stanley
Equalweight -> Underweight
Price Target
$28
2025-11-10
downgrade
Morgan Stanley downgraded JD.com from Equalweight to Underweight due to several factors. The primary reason is the waning effect of China's trade-in subsidies, which have previously benefited JD.com but are now becoming less impactful. Additionally, JD.com's revenue growth is expected to slow significantly, with projections of only 5.6% year-over-year growth in 4Q25 and further decline to 4.4% next year. This slowdown, combined with anticipated losses from new business ventures, is expected to reduce the company's operating leverage and negatively impact long-term profit margins and return on equity (ROE).
Macquarie
Macquarie
Outperform
downgrade
2025-10-13
Reason
The analyst rating from Macquarie is based on several key factors:
1. Growth in Cloud Business: Macquarie predicts that Alibaba's cloud business will continue to accelerate growth in the current fiscal year, which is a positive indicator for the company's future performance.
2. Diversified Monetization Opportunities: The report highlights that Alibaba has more diversified monetization opportunities, suggesting potential for long-term margin expansion.
3. Robust User Traffic and Transaction Volume: Despite potential short-term losses due to rapid e-commerce activities, Macquarie expects user traffic and transaction volume trends to remain strong.
4. Valuation Comparison: The broker believes that the market's current assumption of Alibaba Cloud's valuation contribution (15-20%) is too conservative compared to Amazon Web Services (AWS), which accounts for over 50% of Amazon's equity value. This indicates that there is potential for Alibaba to narrow the valuation gap with its US peers.
Overall, these factors led Macquarie to reiterate an Outperform rating on BABA-W, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects and market position.
Macquarie
Outperform
Price Target
2025-10-13
downgrade
The analyst rating from Macquarie is based on several key factors:
1. Growth in Cloud Business: Macquarie predicts that Alibaba's cloud business will continue to accelerate growth in the current fiscal year, which is a positive indicator for the company's future performance.
2. Diversified Monetization Opportunities: The report highlights that Alibaba has more diversified monetization opportunities, suggesting potential for long-term margin expansion.
3. Robust User Traffic and Transaction Volume: Despite potential short-term losses due to rapid e-commerce activities, Macquarie expects user traffic and transaction volume trends to remain strong.
4. Valuation Comparison: The broker believes that the market's current assumption of Alibaba Cloud's valuation contribution (15-20%) is too conservative compared to Amazon Web Services (AWS), which accounts for over 50% of Amazon's equity value. This indicates that there is potential for Alibaba to narrow the valuation gap with its US peers.
Overall, these factors led Macquarie to reiterate an Outperform rating on BABA-W, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects and market position.
Valuation Metrics
Forward PE
5Y Average PE
12.96
Current PE
20.20
Overvalued PE
18.46
Undervalued PE
7.45
Forward EV/EBITDA
N/A
5Y Average EV/EBITDA
9.94
Current EV/EBITDA
0.00
Overvalued EV/EBITDA
14.89
Undervalued EV/EBITDA
4.98
Forward PS
N/A
5Y Average PS
2.13
Current PS
0.00
Overvalued PS
3.07
Undervalued PS
1.18
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