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S&P Global

A-

maintain

2025-12-02

Reason

The analyst rating from S&P Global for Meituan (03690.HK) is influenced by several factors indicating that the risks to the company's EBITDA recovery are increasing. The primary reasons include: 1. Rising Costs: Meituan is facing increasing costs to maintain its market leadership in local commerce, which may hinder the recovery of its profit margins. 2. Lower EBITDA Margin Forecast: The company’s food delivery segment is expected to have an EBITDA margin in 2026 that is lower than initially forecasted, suggesting a slower recovery than anticipated. 3. Increased Marketing Investment: As subsidies decrease, Meituan may need to invest more in marketing to attract and retain customer loyalty and ensure the quality of rider services, further impacting its costs. 4. Competitive Pressure: The narrowing cost gap in delivery services between Meituan and its main competitor, Alibaba (BABA-W), is likely to increase Meituan's expenses related to maintaining brand recognition and consumer awareness. Overall, these factors contribute to a more cautious outlook on Meituan's financial recovery, leading S&P Global to assign an A- credit rating with a Stable outlook.

S&P Global

A-

Price Target

2025-12-02

maintain

The analyst rating from S&P Global for Meituan (03690.HK) is influenced by several factors indicating that the risks to the company's EBITDA recovery are increasing. The primary reasons include: 1. Rising Costs: Meituan is facing increasing costs to maintain its market leadership in local commerce, which may hinder the recovery of its profit margins. 2. Lower EBITDA Margin Forecast: The company’s food delivery segment is expected to have an EBITDA margin in 2026 that is lower than initially forecasted, suggesting a slower recovery than anticipated. 3. Increased Marketing Investment: As subsidies decrease, Meituan may need to invest more in marketing to attract and retain customer loyalty and ensure the quality of rider services, further impacting its costs. 4. Competitive Pressure: The narrowing cost gap in delivery services between Meituan and its main competitor, Alibaba (BABA-W), is likely to increase Meituan's expenses related to maintaining brand recognition and consumer awareness. Overall, these factors contribute to a more cautious outlook on Meituan's financial recovery, leading S&P Global to assign an A- credit rating with a Stable outlook.

JPMorgan

Neutral

downgrade

$100 -> $95

2025-12-02

Reason

JPMorgan's cautious stance on MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) is based on uncertainties surrounding three key areas: competition in the food delivery business, the sustainability of profits in the in-store business, and the execution of overseas expansion. These factors contribute to weakened financial visibility and increased risk of earnings volatility, prompting the firm to maintain a Neutral rating and lower its target price from HKD100 to HKD95.

JPMorgan

Neutral

Price Target

$100 -> $95

2025-12-02

downgrade

JPMorgan's cautious stance on MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) is based on uncertainties surrounding three key areas: competition in the food delivery business, the sustainability of profits in the in-store business, and the execution of overseas expansion. These factors contribute to weakened financial visibility and increased risk of earnings volatility, prompting the firm to maintain a Neutral rating and lower its target price from HKD100 to HKD95.

China Merchants Securities

Overweight

maintain

$139

2025-12-02

Reason

The analyst rating from China Merchants Securities for MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) is based on the anticipation that the company's earnings will recover next year due to its stable high customer order share. Despite a decline in gross profit and an operating loss in the recent quarter, the firm maintains a positive outlook, projecting that the core local business operating loss will be manageable. They have set a target price of HKD139 and assigned an "Overweight" rating, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.

China Merchants Securities

Overweight

Price Target

$139

2025-12-02

maintain

The analyst rating from China Merchants Securities for MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) is based on the anticipation that the company's earnings will recover next year due to its stable high customer order share. Despite a decline in gross profit and an operating loss in the recent quarter, the firm maintains a positive outlook, projecting that the core local business operating loss will be manageable. They have set a target price of HKD139 and assigned an "Overweight" rating, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.

Daiwa

Buy

to

Buy

downgrade

$170 -> $140

2025-12-01

Reason

The analyst rating for MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) was maintained at "Buy" by Daiwa due to signs of a gradual moderate recovery across various businesses, particularly in the food delivery sector where losses are stabilizing. Despite anticipated losses in new businesses and pressure on profit margins in the in-store segment, the achievement of breakeven in Keeta's Hong Kong operations and confidence in its development in other regions contributed to the positive outlook. However, the target price was reduced from $170 to $140, and EPS estimations for 2026-2027 were lowered by 23-43% due to expected increased investment leading to expanded losses for Keeta next year.

Daiwa

Buy

to

Buy

Price Target

$170 -> $140

2025-12-01

downgrade

The analyst rating for MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) was maintained at "Buy" by Daiwa due to signs of a gradual moderate recovery across various businesses, particularly in the food delivery sector where losses are stabilizing. Despite anticipated losses in new businesses and pressure on profit margins in the in-store segment, the achievement of breakeven in Keeta's Hong Kong operations and confidence in its development in other regions contributed to the positive outlook. However, the target price was reduced from $170 to $140, and EPS estimations for 2026-2027 were lowered by 23-43% due to expected increased investment leading to expanded losses for Keeta next year.

Goldman Sachs

Buy

downgrade

$139 -> $120

2025-12-01

Reason

The analyst rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) was maintained as a Buy despite a reduction in the 12-month target price from HKD139 to HKD120. This decision was influenced by a lower-than-expected loss reported in their 3Q25 results and a revised forecast for long-term food delivery EBIT per order, as well as a change in the P/E multiple for in-store, hotel, and travel segments. The broker expressed confidence in Meituan's overall leadership in local services, and noted that the stock has underperformed year-to-date, with a favorable skew in their valuation scenarios (+48% bull, +17% base, -25% bear) compared to the current share price.

Goldman Sachs

Buy

Price Target

$139 -> $120

2025-12-01

downgrade

The analyst rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) was maintained as a Buy despite a reduction in the 12-month target price from HKD139 to HKD120. This decision was influenced by a lower-than-expected loss reported in their 3Q25 results and a revised forecast for long-term food delivery EBIT per order, as well as a change in the P/E multiple for in-store, hotel, and travel segments. The broker expressed confidence in Meituan's overall leadership in local services, and noted that the stock has underperformed year-to-date, with a favorable skew in their valuation scenarios (+48% bull, +17% base, -25% bear) compared to the current share price.

Citi

Neutral

downgrade

$135 -> $120

2025-12-01

Reason

The analyst rating for MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) from Morgan Stanley is reiterated as Overweight due to several positive indicators. The report highlights that MEITUAN-W is showing initial signs of bottoming out, suggesting it may have passed its worst business period. Additionally, the narrowing of on-demand retail losses and the company's market position and unit economic efficiency are expected to mitigate the impact of competition from rivals like Douyin. Furthermore, the successful breakeven of MEITUAN-W's Hong Kong business (Keeta) ahead of schedule supports a positive outlook. Despite a reduction in the target price from HKD 135 to HKD 120, the overall assessment remains optimistic.

Citi

Neutral

Price Target

$135 -> $120

2025-12-01

downgrade

The analyst rating for MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) from Morgan Stanley is reiterated as Overweight due to several positive indicators. The report highlights that MEITUAN-W is showing initial signs of bottoming out, suggesting it may have passed its worst business period. Additionally, the narrowing of on-demand retail losses and the company's market position and unit economic efficiency are expected to mitigate the impact of competition from rivals like Douyin. Furthermore, the successful breakeven of MEITUAN-W's Hong Kong business (Keeta) ahead of schedule supports a positive outlook. Despite a reduction in the target price from HKD 135 to HKD 120, the overall assessment remains optimistic.

Citi Research

Citi

Neutral

downgrade

$117 -> $115

2025-12-01

Reason

The analyst rating for MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) was kept at Neutral due to several factors highlighted in the report. The expectation that core local commerce (CLC) and operating losses will persist into 4Q25, along with ongoing intense competition, contributed to this rating. While food delivery losses are anticipated to improve quarter-over-quarter, the retail and in-store business is expected to decline, with operating profit margins slipping due to the macroeconomic environment and intensified competition. Additionally, the long-term outlook for MEITUAN-W's user growth and profit margins is highly dependent on competitors' actions and strategies. As a result, the target price was also lowered from $117 to $115.

Citi Research

Neutral

Price Target

$117 -> $115

2025-12-01

downgrade

The analyst rating for MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) was kept at Neutral due to several factors highlighted in the report. The expectation that core local commerce (CLC) and operating losses will persist into 4Q25, along with ongoing intense competition, contributed to this rating. While food delivery losses are anticipated to improve quarter-over-quarter, the retail and in-store business is expected to decline, with operating profit margins slipping due to the macroeconomic environment and intensified competition. Additionally, the long-term outlook for MEITUAN-W's user growth and profit margins is highly dependent on competitors' actions and strategies. As a result, the target price was also lowered from $117 to $115.

Nomura

Buy

to

Neutral

downgrade

$123 -> $107

2025-12-01

Reason

The analyst rating downgrade from Nomura, which changed Meituan from Buy to Neutral, is primarily due to the persistent and escalating competition in China's food delivery market. The report highlights that Meituan is expected to face ongoing competitive pressure across its food delivery and in-store services, which may keep its food delivery profitability fragile in the coming quarters. Additionally, the in-store segment, which is currently Meituan's only profitable business, is projected to experience reduced profitability due to competitors like Douyin engaging in aggressive subsidy strategies to capture market share. This competitive landscape has led Meituan's management to lower its long-term profit margin guidance for the in-store segment, prompting Nomura to significantly reduce its operating profit forecasts for FY2025/26 by 65% and 58%, respectively, and consequently lower the target price from HK$123 to HK$107.

Nomura

Buy

to

Neutral

Price Target

$123 -> $107

2025-12-01

downgrade

The analyst rating downgrade from Nomura, which changed Meituan from Buy to Neutral, is primarily due to the persistent and escalating competition in China's food delivery market. The report highlights that Meituan is expected to face ongoing competitive pressure across its food delivery and in-store services, which may keep its food delivery profitability fragile in the coming quarters. Additionally, the in-store segment, which is currently Meituan's only profitable business, is projected to experience reduced profitability due to competitors like Douyin engaging in aggressive subsidy strategies to capture market share. This competitive landscape has led Meituan's management to lower its long-term profit margin guidance for the in-store segment, prompting Nomura to significantly reduce its operating profit forecasts for FY2025/26 by 65% and 58%, respectively, and consequently lower the target price from HK$123 to HK$107.

CLSA

Outperform

downgrade

$143 -> $135

2025-11-13

Reason

The analyst rating from CLSA for MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) is maintained at "Outperform" despite the anticipated challenges. The reasons for this rating include: 1. Revenue Projections: CLSA expects a slight decline in core local commerce revenue due to intense competition, but total revenue growth is still projected at 4% year-on-year. 2. Loss Estimates: While a significant loss of RMB16.3 billion is anticipated for 3Q25, the expectation that this loss will narrow in 4Q25 suggests potential for recovery. 3. Adjusted Profit Forecasts: Although CLSA has lowered its adjusted net profit forecasts for the upcoming years, the overall outlook remains positive enough to justify an "Outperform" rating. 4. Target Price Adjustment: The target price was reduced from $143 to $135, indicating a cautious but still optimistic view on the stock's future performance. Overall, the rating reflects a belief in the company's long-term potential despite short-term challenges.

CLSA

Outperform

Price Target

$143 -> $135

2025-11-13

downgrade

The analyst rating from CLSA for MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) is maintained at "Outperform" despite the anticipated challenges. The reasons for this rating include: 1. Revenue Projections: CLSA expects a slight decline in core local commerce revenue due to intense competition, but total revenue growth is still projected at 4% year-on-year. 2. Loss Estimates: While a significant loss of RMB16.3 billion is anticipated for 3Q25, the expectation that this loss will narrow in 4Q25 suggests potential for recovery. 3. Adjusted Profit Forecasts: Although CLSA has lowered its adjusted net profit forecasts for the upcoming years, the overall outlook remains positive enough to justify an "Outperform" rating. 4. Target Price Adjustment: The target price was reduced from $143 to $135, indicating a cautious but still optimistic view on the stock's future performance. Overall, the rating reflects a belief in the company's long-term potential despite short-term challenges.

BofA Securities

Buy

to

Neutral

downgrade

$136 -> $105

2025-10-28

Reason

The analyst rating for MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) was downgraded to Neutral by BofA Securities due to more intense and prolonged competition than previously expected, which necessitated a readjustment of the profit recovery timeline. The persistent investments by competitors such as BABA-W and JD-SW have forced Meituan to adopt defensive strategies, impacting short-term margins. The downgrade reflects increased profit volatility, prompting a more cautious stance until the competitive landscape stabilizes. Despite this, the broker maintains confidence in Meituan's solid execution and long-term market leadership.

BofA Securities

Buy

to

Neutral

Price Target

$136 -> $105

2025-10-28

downgrade

The analyst rating for MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) was downgraded to Neutral by BofA Securities due to more intense and prolonged competition than previously expected, which necessitated a readjustment of the profit recovery timeline. The persistent investments by competitors such as BABA-W and JD-SW have forced Meituan to adopt defensive strategies, impacting short-term margins. The downgrade reflects increased profit volatility, prompting a more cautious stance until the competitive landscape stabilizes. Despite this, the broker maintains confidence in Meituan's solid execution and long-term market leadership.

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