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HSBC Research Projects 6.7% Shareholder Return for MIDEA GROUP (00300.HK) This Year, Raises Target Price to $110

Citi Research: Chinese Consumption Sector Prioritizes Sustainable Profit Growth; Recommended Stocks Include ANTA SPORTS, HAIDILAO, POP MART, and More

3.0

01-07aastocks

G Sachs Publishes EPS CAGR Projections for Top 10 Private Companies in China (Table)

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Sinolink Securities Predicts Record Profits for Electrolytic Aluminum Sector, Anticipates Aluminum Sector to Emerge as a High-Quality Asset

4.5

01-02aastocks

HSI Rises 707 Points on First Trading Day of 2026; BIDU-SW Jumps 9% During Tech Surge

Money Flow

Over the past 66 trading days, overall net money flow is 122.38M, with retail investors contributing 10.01M and major investors adding 62.99M.

Net Buy $ Volume

Net Sell $ Volume

HSBC

HSBC Global Research

maintain

$109 -> $110

2026-01-26

Reason

The analyst rating for MIDEA GROUP was maintained at "Buy" due to several factors. Despite a year-over-year decline of about 24% in air conditioner sales in mainland China for 4Q25, the company is expected to perform slightly better than industry expectations because its sales have outperformed the industry average, aided by merger and acquisition projects. Looking ahead to 2026, while domestic demand for home appliances may be impacted by the withdrawal of subsidies and high base effects, the Group is predicted to maintain mid-single-digit growth. Additionally, estimated shareholder returns for 2026/2027 are projected to rise to 6.7% and 7%, respectively. Consequently, the broker raised its target prices for MIDEA GROUP's shares, reinforcing the positive outlook.

HSBC

Price Target

$109 -> $110

2026-01-26

maintain

The analyst rating for MIDEA GROUP was maintained at "Buy" due to several factors. Despite a year-over-year decline of about 24% in air conditioner sales in mainland China for 4Q25, the company is expected to perform slightly better than industry expectations because its sales have outperformed the industry average, aided by merger and acquisition projects. Looking ahead to 2026, while domestic demand for home appliances may be impacted by the withdrawal of subsidies and high base effects, the Group is predicted to maintain mid-single-digit growth. Additionally, estimated shareholder returns for 2026/2027 are projected to rise to 6.7% and 7%, respectively. Consequently, the broker raised its target prices for MIDEA GROUP's shares, reinforcing the positive outlook.

CLSA

downgrade

$90 -> $95

2026-01-21

Reason

The analyst rating for MIDEA GROUP was set at "Outperform" due to several factors highlighted in the CLSA research report. The report noted an increase in ex-factory prices, suggesting that the average selling price across the industry is expected to rise. Despite acknowledging weak domestic demand and lowering net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 1-3%, the broker raised the target price for MIDEA GROUP's H-shares from $90 to $95, based on a historical average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.5x. Additionally, there is potential for overseas sales to exceed expectations due to OEM orders, contributing to a more optimistic outlook for the company.

CLSA

Price Target

$90 -> $95

2026-01-21

downgrade

The analyst rating for MIDEA GROUP was set at "Outperform" due to several factors highlighted in the CLSA research report. The report noted an increase in ex-factory prices, suggesting that the average selling price across the industry is expected to rise. Despite acknowledging weak domestic demand and lowering net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 1-3%, the broker raised the target price for MIDEA GROUP's H-shares from $90 to $95, based on a historical average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.5x. Additionally, there is potential for overseas sales to exceed expectations due to OEM orders, contributing to a more optimistic outlook for the company.

Goldman Sachs

maintain

$103

2025-12-19

Reason

The analyst rating from Goldman Sachs is based on the expectation that despite the current slowdown in China's appliance market, there may be improvement in 2026 due to the likely continuation of the consumer good trade-in policy. This outlook leads Goldman Sachs to maintain a bullish stance on MIDEA GROUP and HISENSE HA, both of which hold a Buy rating. The report highlights the challenges faced in November, including a significant year-over-year decline in retail sales and factory shipments, but suggests that the long-term prospects could be more favorable.

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$103

2025-12-19

maintain

The analyst rating from Goldman Sachs is based on the expectation that despite the current slowdown in China's appliance market, there may be improvement in 2026 due to the likely continuation of the consumer good trade-in policy. This outlook leads Goldman Sachs to maintain a bullish stance on MIDEA GROUP and HISENSE HA, both of which hold a Buy rating. The report highlights the challenges faced in November, including a significant year-over-year decline in retail sales and factory shipments, but suggests that the long-term prospects could be more favorable.

CMBI

Equalweight

maintain

2025-12-12

Reason

CMBI has issued an Equalweight rating for China's 2026 discretionary consumption sector due to a cautious outlook influenced by several headwinds. These include the retreat of national and delivery subsidies, a slowdown in export momentum, and job reductions linked to the widespread application of AI. While the broker anticipates overall retail sales growth to be around 3.5%, slightly slower than the previous year's 4%, they also recognize some positive factors such as the delayed Spring Festival, extended holidays, potential recovery in the real estate sector, and a thriving stock market. However, they expect stock prices in the discretionary consumption sector to face pressure in the first half of 2026, with a potential rebound in the second half. The report categorizes investment opportunities into different types of consumption, favoring survival, compensatory, and hedging/defensive consumption, while being less optimistic about large-scale consumption.

CMBI

Equalweight

Price Target

2025-12-12

maintain

CMBI has issued an Equalweight rating for China's 2026 discretionary consumption sector due to a cautious outlook influenced by several headwinds. These include the retreat of national and delivery subsidies, a slowdown in export momentum, and job reductions linked to the widespread application of AI. While the broker anticipates overall retail sales growth to be around 3.5%, slightly slower than the previous year's 4%, they also recognize some positive factors such as the delayed Spring Festival, extended holidays, potential recovery in the real estate sector, and a thriving stock market. However, they expect stock prices in the discretionary consumption sector to face pressure in the first half of 2026, with a potential rebound in the second half. The report categorizes investment opportunities into different types of consumption, favoring survival, compensatory, and hedging/defensive consumption, while being less optimistic about large-scale consumption.

HSBC Global Research

Buy

maintain

$109

2025-10-02

Reason

The analyst rating from HSBC Global Research is a "Buy" due to MIDEA GROUP's optimistic outlook for its 2H25 results, with expectations of double-digit revenue growth for the full year. The analysts anticipate a 10% year-over-year increase in 3Q25 revenue and mid to high single-digit growth in net profit, despite losses from acquisitions in 1H25. Excluding those acquisitions, the net profit growth is expected to outpace revenue growth, reinforcing the positive outlook and justifying the target price of HKD109.

HSBC Global Research

Buy

Price Target

$109

2025-10-02

maintain

The analyst rating from HSBC Global Research is a "Buy" due to MIDEA GROUP's optimistic outlook for its 2H25 results, with expectations of double-digit revenue growth for the full year. The analysts anticipate a 10% year-over-year increase in 3Q25 revenue and mid to high single-digit growth in net profit, despite losses from acquisitions in 1H25. Excluding those acquisitions, the net profit growth is expected to outpace revenue growth, reinforcing the positive outlook and justifying the target price of HKD109.

Valuation Metrics

Forward PE

5Y Average PE

12.62

Current PE

0.04

Overvalued PE

16.09

Undervalued PE

9.15

Forward EV/EBITDA

N/A

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

10.41

Current EV/EBITDA

0.00

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

12.69

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

8.13

Forward PS

N/A

5Y Average PS

1.19

Current PS

0.00

Overvalued PS

1.43

Undervalued PS

0.94

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