VLCC rates surge as Middle East turmoil sees shipowners withhold tonnage
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Source: SeekingAlpha
Freight Rate Surge: Freight rates for very large crude carriers (VLCC) in the Persian Gulf have surged to their highest levels since early May due to increased tensions between Israel and Iran, with rates rising nearly 60% recently.
Impact on Shipping Market: Shipowners are hesitant to operate in the Gulf, leading to potential additional war risk premiums from marine insurers, which could further escalate freight costs across various regions.
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Analyst Views on FRO
Wall Street analysts forecast FRO stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FRO is 23.45 USD with a low forecast of 14.36 USD and a high forecast of 30.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 28.060
Low
14.36
Averages
23.45
High
30.00
Current: 28.060
Low
14.36
Averages
23.45
High
30.00
About FRO
FRONTLINE PLC is a Cyprus-based company primarily operating in the transportation sector. The Company's main focus is on seaborne transportation of crude oil and refined products. The Company owns and operates a fleet consisting of multiple VLCC, Suezmax and LR2 / Aframax tankers intended for freight of oil and cargo. The Company operates worldwide.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Frontline Sells 8 VLCCs for $831.5M, Expects $486M Net Cash Proceeds
- Strategic Renewal: Frontline plc announces the sale of eight first-generation ECO VLCCs built between 2015 and 2016 for a total of $831.5 million, with delivery scheduled for Q1 2026, which is expected to generate approximately $486 million in net cash proceeds, significantly enhancing the company's liquidity.
- Financial Gains: The transaction is projected to yield a gain of approximately $217.4 million to $226.7 million in Q1 2026, further improving the company's financial performance and supporting future investment plans.
- New Vessel Orders: Concurrently, Frontline has signed an agreement to acquire nine latest-generation scrubber-fitted ECO VLCC newbuilding contracts from its largest shareholder for an aggregate price of $1.224 billion, with deliveries scheduled from Q3 2026 to Q2 2027, enhancing the company's competitive position in the VLCC market.
- Modern Fleet Composition: Upon completion of these transactions, Frontline's fleet will expand to 81 vessels, including 42 VLCCs, 21 Suezmax tankers, and 18 LR2/Aframax tankers, further improving operational efficiency and environmental capabilities.
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Frontline plc Rallies 9.53% as US Seizes Venezuelan Oil
- Significant Stock Surge: Frontline plc's stock jumped 9.53% to close at $23.67 on Wednesday, primarily driven by President Trump's announcement that the US would seize up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned crude oil from Venezuela, indicating a positive outlook for the company's business prospects.
- Investor Confidence Boosted: As one of the world's largest seaborne transporters of crude oil and refined products, Frontline is expected to benefit significantly from the seizure, which has sparked increased buying interest among investors, thereby driving the stock price higher.
- Market Dynamics Shift: The US successfully seized two sanctioned tankers on the same day, including a Russian-flagged oil tanker, and this action, coupled with the arrest of ousted Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife on drug-related charges, has further heightened market attention on Frontline.
- Financial Performance Review: Despite reporting a 33% decline in net income to $40.3 million and an 11.8% drop in revenues to $432.6 million in the third quarter of last year, the current market dynamics may provide opportunities for financial recovery for Frontline moving forward.
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