Vail Resorts (MTN) Warns Full-Year Earnings Will Miss Expectations Amid 20% Drop in Skier Visits
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 15 2026
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Source: Benzinga
- Skier Visits Plummet: As of January 4, skier visits at North American destination resorts fell by 20% year-over-year, leading to significant declines in ski school and dining revenues by 14.9% and 15.9%, respectively, which exerted considerable pressure on overall company revenue.
- 30-Year Low Snowfall: Vail Resorts' CEO noted that snowfall in the western U.S. was about 50% below the historical 30-year average, resulting in only 11% of terrain open in December, further impacting customer skiing experiences and company earnings.
- EBITDA Outlook Downgraded: Vail now expects its fiscal 2026 EBITDA to come in below the low end of the guidance range issued on September 29, indicating a cautious outlook for future earnings, particularly under adverse weather conditions.
- Weak Market Performance: MTN shares are currently trading at $141.71, 2.6% below the 20-day simple moving average, indicating a bearish trend in the short term, with a 22.8% decline in stock price over the past 12 months, reflecting ongoing market challenges.
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Analyst Views on MTN
Wall Street analysts forecast MTN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MTN is 169.54 USD with a low forecast of 145.00 USD and a high forecast of 234.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 132.970
Low
145.00
Averages
169.54
High
234.00
Current: 132.970
Low
145.00
Averages
169.54
High
234.00
About MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc. is a network of destination and close-to-home ski resorts in the world including Vail Mountain, Breckenridge, Park City Mountain, Whistler Blackcomb, Stowe, and 32 additional resorts across North America; Andermatt-Sedrun and Crans-Montana Mountain Resort in Switzerland; and Perisher, Hotham, and Falls Creek in Australia - all available on the Company's Epic Pass. The Company's segments include Mountain, Lodging and Real Estate. It also provides ancillary services, primarily including ski school, dining and retail/rental operations. The Company owns and/or manages a collection of elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand, a portfolio of vacation rentals, condominiums and branded hotels located in close proximity to its mountain destinations, as well as the Grand Teton Lodge Company in Jackson Hole, Wyo. The Company operates more than 250 retail and rental locations across North America. It owns, develops and sells real estate in and around its resort communities.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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