Vail Resorts (MTN) Warns EBITDA May Fall Below $842M Due to Warm Weather
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 15 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Visitor Decline: As of January 4, Vail Resorts reported a 20% drop in skier visits compared to last year, leading to a 15% decline in ski school and dining revenue, and a 6% drop in retail/rental revenue, highlighting the significant negative impact of unseasonably warm weather on business.
- EBITDA Warning: Management cautioned that if weather conditions do not normalize by mid-February, the EBITDA for the 2025/2026 ski season could fall below the low end of $842 million guidance, reflecting the potential financial threat posed by climate variability.
- Historic Low Snowfall: The snowfall at Vail's western U.S. resorts was only half of the 30-year average, with Rocky Mountain snowfall down 60%, severely limiting terrain openings and negatively impacting visitation and ancillary spending.
- Regional Disparities: While the eastern snowfall provided favorable skiing conditions that somewhat mitigated the impact of poor conditions out west, overall business remains challenged, particularly in regions like Tahoe and Whistler.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy MTN?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on MTN
Wall Street analysts forecast MTN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MTN is 169.54 USD with a low forecast of 145.00 USD and a high forecast of 234.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 132.970
Low
145.00
Averages
169.54
High
234.00
Current: 132.970
Low
145.00
Averages
169.54
High
234.00
About MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc. is a network of destination and close-to-home ski resorts in the world including Vail Mountain, Breckenridge, Park City Mountain, Whistler Blackcomb, Stowe, and 32 additional resorts across North America; Andermatt-Sedrun and Crans-Montana Mountain Resort in Switzerland; and Perisher, Hotham, and Falls Creek in Australia - all available on the Company's Epic Pass. The Company's segments include Mountain, Lodging and Real Estate. It also provides ancillary services, primarily including ski school, dining and retail/rental operations. The Company owns and/or manages a collection of elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand, a portfolio of vacation rentals, condominiums and branded hotels located in close proximity to its mountain destinations, as well as the Grand Teton Lodge Company in Jackson Hole, Wyo. The Company operates more than 250 retail and rental locations across North America. It owns, develops and sells real estate in and around its resort communities.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
U.S. Policy Affects Canadian Tourist Trends
- Visitor Decline Trend: U.S. ski resorts report a sharp drop in Canadian visitors, particularly in the New England region, despite excellent snowfall this winter, indicating a direct impact of policy on tourism.
- Canadian Tourist Reaction: Inntopia data reveals that Canadian bookings tend to drop significantly within 48 hours following any controversial geopolitical statement by President Trump, reflecting their dissatisfaction and resistance to U.S. policies.
- Sense of Betrayal: Tom Foley, Inntopia's director of business intelligence, states that Canadians feel betrayed by a longtime friend, exacerbating their resistance to U.S. ski resorts and affecting tourism stability.
- Impact on Las Vegas: There is also a notable decline in Canadian tourists visiting Las Vegas compared to last year, further demonstrating the negative impact of U.S. policies on tourism across other popular destinations.
Continue Reading
Morgan Stanley CEO Predicts Strong M&A Activity in 2026
- Optimistic M&A Outlook: Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick forecasts a prosperous year for M&A and capital markets in 2026, driven by interest rate cuts and geopolitical volatility, with the five major banks reporting a 15% increase in trading revenue for 2025, marking the largest jump in five years.
- Walmart International CEO Resignation: Walmart International CEO Kathryn McLay announced her resignation at the end of the month, despite an 11% sales growth in overseas markets, highlighting potential strategic shifts following her failure to secure the group CEO role.
- Taiwan Trade Agreement Signed: President Trump confirmed a trade deal with Taiwan, reducing tariffs on imports from 20% to 15%, with Taiwanese tech firms pledging at least $250 billion in U.S. investments, aiming to enhance U.S. semiconductor self-sufficiency.
- Decline in Skier Visits: Vail Resorts reported a 20% drop in skier visits compared to last year, and despite a 6.26% dividend yield, analysts suggest management should consider cutting dividends to strengthen the balance sheet.
Continue Reading