USA Rare Earth Stock Experiences Wild Post-Debut Fluctuations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy USAR?
Source: Fool
- Post-Debut Volatility: Since its March 2025 SPAC merger, USA Rare Earth has seen significant stock price fluctuations, currently up approximately 141% from its debut but down about 33% from last October's peak, indicating market uncertainty.
- Market Capitalization: As of now, USA Rare Earth boasts a market cap of around $3.5 billion, yet the company has yet to record any revenue, highlighting the speculative nature of its business model and the balance of potential growth against inherent risks.
- New Refining Contracts: At the beginning of 2026, the company announced contracts to launch new mineral refining operations in France, with a new plant expected to produce 3,750 metric tons of refined material annually, supported by the French government covering up to 45% of equipment costs and reimbursing €130 million in real estate expenses, significantly mitigating initial investment risks.
- Government Support and Investment Outlook: USA Rare Earth recently received a non-binding letter of intent from the U.S. Commerce Department, suggesting potential funding of $1.6 billion, alongside a stake from the U.S. government, reflecting the administration's commitment to enhancing rare-earth mineral sourcing and the company's promising future prospects.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy USAR?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on USAR
Wall Street analysts forecast USAR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for USAR is 22.75 USD with a low forecast of 15.00 USD and a high forecast of 28.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 20.600
Low
15.00
Averages
22.75
High
28.00
Current: 20.600
Low
15.00
Averages
22.75
High
28.00
About USAR
USA Rare Earth, Inc. is a supplier of sintered neo magnets and other rare earth metals. The Company is engaged in developing a NdFeB magnet manufacturing plant in Stillwater, Oklahoma, and intends to establish domestic rare earth and critical minerals supply, extraction, and processing capabilities to both supply its magnet manufacturing plant and market surplus materials to third parties. It is focused on developing domestic rare earth production that offers sustainable and secure domestic supply of materials critical to key industries. Its vertically integrated approach consists of sourcing rare earth elements (REEs), in addition to other critical minerals such as gallium, to producing finished NdFeB magnets. The Company serve a variety of industries, such as defense, robotics, electric vehicles, wind power, appliances, cordless tools and computing and semiconductors. The Company owns, Less Common Metals Ltd., which is a scaled ex-China rare earth metal and alloy manufacturer.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
USA Rare Earth Stock Experiences Wild Post-Debut Fluctuations
- Post-Debut Volatility: Since its March 2025 SPAC merger, USA Rare Earth has seen significant stock price fluctuations, currently up approximately 141% from its debut but down about 33% from last October's peak, indicating market uncertainty.
- Market Capitalization: As of now, USA Rare Earth boasts a market cap of around $3.5 billion, yet the company has yet to record any revenue, highlighting the speculative nature of its business model and the balance of potential growth against inherent risks.
- New Refining Contracts: At the beginning of 2026, the company announced contracts to launch new mineral refining operations in France, with a new plant expected to produce 3,750 metric tons of refined material annually, supported by the French government covering up to 45% of equipment costs and reimbursing €130 million in real estate expenses, significantly mitigating initial investment risks.
- Government Support and Investment Outlook: USA Rare Earth recently received a non-binding letter of intent from the U.S. Commerce Department, suggesting potential funding of $1.6 billion, alongside a stake from the U.S. government, reflecting the administration's commitment to enhancing rare-earth mineral sourcing and the company's promising future prospects.
See More
Mining Stocks: Risks and Opportunities for Investors
- TMC Overview: TMC The Metals Company focuses on collecting polymetallic nodules from the Pacific Ocean, currently valued at $2.7 billion with a 13.45% stock increase to $6.41; despite being pre-revenue, its eco-friendly mining approach may attract long-term investors.
- Importance of MP Materials: MP Materials operates the only large-scale rare-earth mine in the U.S., valued at $11 billion with an 8.49% stock increase to $61.35; it secured a $400 million investment from the Department of Defense and a $500 million partnership with Apple, ensuring stability in the U.S. rare-earth supply chain.
- USA Rare Earth Development: USA Rare Earth controls the Round Top deposit in Texas, valued at $3.2 billion with a 6.02% stock increase to $21.84; although still in the construction phase, it has raised $3.1 billion to support the establishment of a domestic rare-earth supply chain.
- Investment Outlook: While TMC, MP, and USA Rare Earth are all pre-revenue and face market volatility risks, their potential in the rare-earth and battery metal sectors makes them attractive for long-term investors.
See More
Trump Administration Invests in Critical Minerals Sector
- Scale of Government Investment: The Trump administration's equity stakes in at least 10 companies, including USA Rare Earth and MP Materials, represent an unprecedented scale aimed at reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths, potentially altering market competition dynamics.
- Legal Risk Concerns: The lack of a clear legal basis for these investments exposes the Trump administration to lawsuits from competitors and political scrutiny during potential regime changes, increasing operational uncertainties for the involved companies.
- Capital Allocation Risks: Government equity stakes raise concerns about capital misallocation, as funds may flow to less competitive companies, which could adversely affect the overall health of the market and investor confidence.
- Corporate Silence: Despite some executives expressing distaste for government intervention, most corporate leaders remain silent, fearing that public opposition could strain relations with the administration and negatively impact shareholder interests.
See More
Trump Administration Increases Investments in Critical Minerals
- Surge in Investments: The Trump administration has made unprecedented equity investments in at least 10 companies over the past year, including critical minerals and chipmakers, aiming to build a domestic supply chain and reduce reliance on China, indicating a proactive government role in economic strategy.
- U.S. Steel Golden Share: The administration secured a golden share in U.S. Steel as a condition for approving Nippon Steel's acquisition, granting the president veto power over key business decisions, which ensures stability and growth in the U.S. steel industry, reflecting direct government intervention in vital sectors.
- Strategic Deal with MP Materials: The Defense Department struck a landmark deal with MP Materials, investing $400 million in preferred stock with rights to purchase additional shares, positioning the Pentagon as the largest single shareholder and further solidifying U.S. dominance in the rare earth mining sector.
- L3Harris and Defense Partnership: L3Harris announced a proposed partnership with the U.S. government, where the Pentagon will invest $1 billion in its rocket motor business, with plans for an IPO in the second half of 2026, allowing the Pentagon's investment to convert into common equity, enhancing the capital base of the defense industry.
See More
USA Rare Earth Seizes Strategic Opportunity Amid Supply Chain Urgency
- Market Dependency Issue: According to the International Energy Agency, China accounted for 59% of global rare earth mining, 91% of refining, and 94% of permanent magnet production in 2024, highlighting the U.S.'s uncomfortable reliance on China for rare earth metals, where a policy shift could severely impact the American economy.
- Control of Key Resources: USA Rare Earth’s Round Top Deposit is one of the largest polymetallic bodies in the U.S., containing at least 15 rare earth elements and lithium, with heavy rare earth elements critical for permanent magnet production, positioning the company for significant market potential.
- Production Capacity Development: The company is constructing a magnet factory in Oklahoma and investing in its R&D lab in Colorado to identify the most cost-effective extraction and production techniques, laying the groundwork for future large-scale production.
- Funding and Market Outlook: By 2026, USA Rare Earth has raised approximately $3.1 billion for the development of the Round Top mine and the magnet factory, including $1.6 billion in loans and federal grants, and if large-scale production is achieved, it could attract major clients like Ford, GM, and the Department of Defense, significantly boosting revenue.
See More
Nvidia's $2 Billion Investment in CoreWeave Highlights AI Infrastructure Needs
- Significant Investment: Nvidia's announcement of a $2 billion investment in CoreWeave, purchasing shares at approximately $87 each, represents a 6.5% discount from last Friday's closing price, resulting in a more than 10% surge in CoreWeave's stock, indicating strong market demand for AI infrastructure.
- Deepening Strategic Partnership: The collaboration between Nvidia and CoreWeave aims to meet the extraordinary demand for Nvidia's AI factories, with plans to build 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030, and this investment will accelerate that process, further solidifying Nvidia's leadership in the AI sector.
- Liquidity Crisis Concerns: While Nvidia's investment is seen as support for CoreWeave, critics note that CoreWeave may be facing cash flow shortages and debt burdens, suggesting that Nvidia's investment could be a move to mitigate the risk of its partner's potential bankruptcy.
- Market Outlook Analysis: As AI technology rapidly evolves, Nvidia's investment is not only a lifeline for CoreWeave but also a strategic positioning within the entire AI ecosystem, reflecting the company's forward-thinking approach in future market competition.
See More
USA Rare Earth Stock Experiences Wild Post-Debut Fluctuations
- Post-Debut Volatility: Since its March 2025 SPAC merger, USA Rare Earth has seen significant stock price fluctuations, currently up approximately 141% from its debut but down about 33% from last October's peak, indicating market uncertainty.
- Market Capitalization: As of now, USA Rare Earth boasts a market cap of around $3.5 billion, yet the company has yet to record any revenue, highlighting the speculative nature of its business model and the balance of potential growth against inherent risks.
- New Refining Contracts: At the beginning of 2026, the company announced contracts to launch new mineral refining operations in France, with a new plant expected to produce 3,750 metric tons of refined material annually, supported by the French government covering up to 45% of equipment costs and reimbursing €130 million in real estate expenses, significantly mitigating initial investment risks.
- Government Support and Investment Outlook: USA Rare Earth recently received a non-binding letter of intent from the U.S. Commerce Department, suggesting potential funding of $1.6 billion, alongside a stake from the U.S. government, reflecting the administration's commitment to enhancing rare-earth mineral sourcing and the company's promising future prospects.
See More
Mining Stocks: Risks and Opportunities for Investors
- TMC Overview: TMC The Metals Company focuses on collecting polymetallic nodules from the Pacific Ocean, currently valued at $2.7 billion with a 13.45% stock increase to $6.41; despite being pre-revenue, its eco-friendly mining approach may attract long-term investors.
- Importance of MP Materials: MP Materials operates the only large-scale rare-earth mine in the U.S., valued at $11 billion with an 8.49% stock increase to $61.35; it secured a $400 million investment from the Department of Defense and a $500 million partnership with Apple, ensuring stability in the U.S. rare-earth supply chain.
- USA Rare Earth Development: USA Rare Earth controls the Round Top deposit in Texas, valued at $3.2 billion with a 6.02% stock increase to $21.84; although still in the construction phase, it has raised $3.1 billion to support the establishment of a domestic rare-earth supply chain.
- Investment Outlook: While TMC, MP, and USA Rare Earth are all pre-revenue and face market volatility risks, their potential in the rare-earth and battery metal sectors makes them attractive for long-term investors.
See More
Trump Administration Invests in Critical Minerals Sector
- Scale of Government Investment: The Trump administration's equity stakes in at least 10 companies, including USA Rare Earth and MP Materials, represent an unprecedented scale aimed at reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths, potentially altering market competition dynamics.
- Legal Risk Concerns: The lack of a clear legal basis for these investments exposes the Trump administration to lawsuits from competitors and political scrutiny during potential regime changes, increasing operational uncertainties for the involved companies.
- Capital Allocation Risks: Government equity stakes raise concerns about capital misallocation, as funds may flow to less competitive companies, which could adversely affect the overall health of the market and investor confidence.
- Corporate Silence: Despite some executives expressing distaste for government intervention, most corporate leaders remain silent, fearing that public opposition could strain relations with the administration and negatively impact shareholder interests.
See More
Trump Administration Increases Investments in Critical Minerals
- Surge in Investments: The Trump administration has made unprecedented equity investments in at least 10 companies over the past year, including critical minerals and chipmakers, aiming to build a domestic supply chain and reduce reliance on China, indicating a proactive government role in economic strategy.
- U.S. Steel Golden Share: The administration secured a golden share in U.S. Steel as a condition for approving Nippon Steel's acquisition, granting the president veto power over key business decisions, which ensures stability and growth in the U.S. steel industry, reflecting direct government intervention in vital sectors.
- Strategic Deal with MP Materials: The Defense Department struck a landmark deal with MP Materials, investing $400 million in preferred stock with rights to purchase additional shares, positioning the Pentagon as the largest single shareholder and further solidifying U.S. dominance in the rare earth mining sector.
- L3Harris and Defense Partnership: L3Harris announced a proposed partnership with the U.S. government, where the Pentagon will invest $1 billion in its rocket motor business, with plans for an IPO in the second half of 2026, allowing the Pentagon's investment to convert into common equity, enhancing the capital base of the defense industry.
See More
USA Rare Earth Seizes Strategic Opportunity Amid Supply Chain Urgency
- Market Dependency Issue: According to the International Energy Agency, China accounted for 59% of global rare earth mining, 91% of refining, and 94% of permanent magnet production in 2024, highlighting the U.S.'s uncomfortable reliance on China for rare earth metals, where a policy shift could severely impact the American economy.
- Control of Key Resources: USA Rare Earth’s Round Top Deposit is one of the largest polymetallic bodies in the U.S., containing at least 15 rare earth elements and lithium, with heavy rare earth elements critical for permanent magnet production, positioning the company for significant market potential.
- Production Capacity Development: The company is constructing a magnet factory in Oklahoma and investing in its R&D lab in Colorado to identify the most cost-effective extraction and production techniques, laying the groundwork for future large-scale production.
- Funding and Market Outlook: By 2026, USA Rare Earth has raised approximately $3.1 billion for the development of the Round Top mine and the magnet factory, including $1.6 billion in loans and federal grants, and if large-scale production is achieved, it could attract major clients like Ford, GM, and the Department of Defense, significantly boosting revenue.
See More
Nvidia's $2 Billion Investment in CoreWeave Highlights AI Infrastructure Needs
- Significant Investment: Nvidia's announcement of a $2 billion investment in CoreWeave, purchasing shares at approximately $87 each, represents a 6.5% discount from last Friday's closing price, resulting in a more than 10% surge in CoreWeave's stock, indicating strong market demand for AI infrastructure.
- Deepening Strategic Partnership: The collaboration between Nvidia and CoreWeave aims to meet the extraordinary demand for Nvidia's AI factories, with plans to build 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030, and this investment will accelerate that process, further solidifying Nvidia's leadership in the AI sector.
- Liquidity Crisis Concerns: While Nvidia's investment is seen as support for CoreWeave, critics note that CoreWeave may be facing cash flow shortages and debt burdens, suggesting that Nvidia's investment could be a move to mitigate the risk of its partner's potential bankruptcy.
- Market Outlook Analysis: As AI technology rapidly evolves, Nvidia's investment is not only a lifeline for CoreWeave but also a strategic positioning within the entire AI ecosystem, reflecting the company's forward-thinking approach in future market competition.
See More
