U.S. Defense Department's Cobalt Purchase: The U.S. Defense Department plans to buy cobalt for the first time in decades, seeking up to 7,500 tons over five years, with a contract value of up to $500 million.
Rising Demand and Market Impact: Cobalt demand has surged due to its use in batteries and defense applications, with the requested volume representing about one-sixth of non-Chinese alloy-grade cobalt supply, indicating significant market implications.
Supplier Limitations and Pricing: Eligible suppliers for this purchase are limited to Vale SA, Sumitomo Metal Mining, and Glencore, with fixed price proposals required for delivery over five years.
Challenges in Stockpiling Strategy: A study highlights that the U.S. lacks a coherent strategy for stockpiling critical minerals like cobalt, emphasizing challenges in storage, infrastructure needs, and expertise required for effective management.
Wall Street analysts forecast VALE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VALE is 13.93 USD with a low forecast of 12.00 USD and a high forecast of 15.50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast VALE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VALE is 13.93 USD with a low forecast of 12.00 USD and a high forecast of 15.50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 15.740
Low
12.00
Averages
13.93
High
15.50
Current: 15.740
Low
12.00
Averages
13.93
High
15.50
Scotiabank
Outperform -> Sector Perform
downgrade
$14 -> $15
2026-01-08
Reason
Scotiabank
Price Target
$14 -> $15
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
downgrade
Outperform -> Sector Perform
Reason
As previously reported, Scotiabank downgraded Vale to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $15, up from $14. The iron ore market may face downward pressure as more supply is coming from top producers and from the new Simandou mine in Guinea, says the analyst, who views the seaborne iron market as at risk of oversupply in late 2026.
Scotiabank
Outperform -> Sector Perform
downgrade
$15
2026-01-08
Reason
Scotiabank
Price Target
$15
2026-01-08
downgrade
Outperform -> Sector Perform
Reason
Scotiabank downgraded Vale to Sector Perform from Outperform with a $15 price target.
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Barclays
Overweight
maintain
2026-01-08
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
2026-01-08
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Barclays raised the firm's price target on Vale to $15.50 from $14.50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is "constructive" on the European miners, seeing upside risks for copper and precious metals amid expectations a Federal Reserve easing cycle.
Wells Fargo
Timna Tanners
Equal Weight
maintain
$12 -> $13
2025-12-23
Reason
Wells Fargo
Timna Tanners
Price Target
$12 -> $13
2025-12-23
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners raised the firm's price target on Vale to $13 from $12 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm says supply constraints can support copper and aluminum prices, especially through Q3 2026. Wells also points out that steep power costs and copper switching especially boost aluminum.
About VALE
Vale SA, formerly Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, is a Brazil-based metal and mining company which is primarily engaged in producing iron ore and nickel. The Company also produces iron ore pellets, copper, platinum group metals (PGMs), gold, silver and cobalt. Vale is engaged in greenfield mineral exploration in five countries and operates logistics systems in Brazil and other regions in the world, including railroads, maritime terminals and ports, which are integrated with mining operations. In addition, Vale has distribution centers to support the delivery of iron ore worldwide. Vale has numerous subsidiaries, including Vale Logistica Uruguay SA, Vale Holdings BV, Vale Overseas Ltd. The Company’s operations abroad cover approximately 30 countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
