U.S. Regulators Crack Down on Political Prediction Markets
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 17 2026
0mins
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Regulatory Crackdown: The CFTC and Justice Department are investigating suspicious betting in political prediction markets, demanding information from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, indicating a swift regulatory response to the influx of capital targeting political volatility.
- Insider Trading Risks: The arrest of U.S. Army special forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke last month for profiting $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on the overthrow of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro highlights the potential for insider trading in prediction markets.
- Market Volatility Impact: Investigators are also examining a spike in oil bets placed just minutes before President Trump's announcement to delay military strikes on Iran, which caused significant swings in energy and stock markets, illustrating the direct impact of political events on market dynamics.
- Compliance Controversy: While Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC, it does not require users to provide employer information, and Polymarket does not verify user identities at all, relying instead on blockchain records to detect unusual trading activity, leading to concerns about market trust and calls for improved record-keeping to maintain market integrity.
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About POLA
Polar Power, Inc. is a provider of direct current (DC) advanced power and cooling systems. The Company’s product portfolio includes standard products for telecom, military, renewable energy, marine, automotive, residential, commercial, oil field and mining applications. Its systems can be configured to operate on any energy source, including photovoltaics, diesel, LPG (propane and butane), and renewable fuels. Its telecom power solutions offer installation, permitting, site leases, and operation. Its military solutions provide power solutions for robotics, drones, communications, hybrid propulsion, and other applications. Its mobile rapid battery charging technology enables on-demand roadside charging for electric vehicles. Its combined heat and power (CHP) residential systems offer vehicle charging and integrated home power systems via natural gas or propane feedstocks. Its micro/nano-grid solutions provide lower-cost energy in bad-grid or no-grid environments.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Google Engineer Charged with Insider Trading
- Insider Trading Charges: The U.S. Justice Department has charged Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo with using insider information to manipulate bets on the prediction market Polymarket, earning $1.2 million in profits, highlighting a serious threat to market integrity.
- High-Risk Bets: Spagnuolo placed a bet on November 27 that indie pop musician D4vd would top Google's most-searched list, despite the market assigning a near-zero probability to this outcome, revealing his misuse of internal information and raising concerns about regulatory oversight in prediction markets.
- Violation of Company Policy: Google stated that Spagnuolo's actions constitute a serious breach of company policy, leading to his suspension, which indicates the company's zero-tolerance stance on insider trading and may impact its reputation among the public and investors.
- Legal Consequences: U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton emphasized the commitment to prosecuting corporate insiders who profit from confidential business information, indicating that the government will continue to intensify its crackdown on insider trading, potentially leading to stricter market regulations.
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- Participation Restrictions: The guidance advises employees to refrain from trading in prediction markets involving JPMorgan to prevent perceptions of misuse of nonpublic information, reflecting the company's strong focus on protecting internal information.
- Market Growth Surge: Prediction market trading volume surged from approximately $16 billion in 2024 to an expected $240 billion by 2026, marking a 370% increase, indicating rapid growth in this sector and drawing regulatory scrutiny.
- Industry Impact: JPMorgan's guidance may influence other Wall Street firms to adopt similar compliance measures regarding prediction market trading, signaling that the rules governing this emerging market are still being refined.
See More
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- Increased Betting Activity: A total of $18.81 million has been wagered on this contract, making it one of the most popular on Polymarket, which highlights the heightened interest and engagement of investors in oil price fluctuations.
- Escalating Geopolitical Tensions: Trump's warning to Iran that “the clock is ticking” and the potential severe consequences of inaction have intensified market concerns about oil prices, prompting investors to increase their bets on rising oil prices.
- Market Response Evident: WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.83% to $107.39 per barrel, while shares of the United States Oil Fund (USO) increased by 3.66%, reflecting a strong market reaction to the anticipated rise in oil prices, despite the fund's 80% decline since the onset of the war.
See More
U.S. Regulators Crack Down on Political Prediction Markets
- Regulatory Crackdown: The CFTC and Justice Department are investigating suspicious betting in political prediction markets, demanding information from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, indicating a swift regulatory response to the influx of capital targeting political volatility.
- Insider Trading Risks: The arrest of U.S. Army special forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke last month for profiting $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on the overthrow of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro highlights the potential for insider trading in prediction markets.
- Market Volatility Impact: Investigators are also examining a spike in oil bets placed just minutes before President Trump's announcement to delay military strikes on Iran, which caused significant swings in energy and stock markets, illustrating the direct impact of political events on market dynamics.
- Compliance Controversy: While Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC, it does not require users to provide employer information, and Polymarket does not verify user identities at all, relying instead on blockchain records to detect unusual trading activity, leading to concerns about market trust and calls for improved record-keeping to maintain market integrity.
See More
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- Investigation Impact: The recent closure of a Department of Justice investigation into Powell had previously hindered some officials from supporting Warsh's nomination, highlighting the intricate political dynamics surrounding changes in Fed leadership.
- Cryptocurrency Stance: Although Warsh has labeled some crypto projects as fraudulent and worthless, he disclosed investments in crypto-native projects like Polymarket and Solana earlier this year, indicating a nuanced position on digital assets.
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- Transmission Characteristics: The Andes virus, a strain of hantavirus, is the only known virus capable of limited human-to-human transmission, with a fatality rate of up to 40%, posing significant public health challenges due to the lack of vaccines or antiviral treatments.
- Global Tracing Efforts: With approximately 30 passengers disembarked before the outbreak was confirmed, health officials across various countries are conducting contact tracing, underscoring the complexity of the situation and the need for international cooperation.
See More
Google Engineer Charged with Insider Trading
- Insider Trading Charges: The U.S. Justice Department has charged Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo with using insider information to manipulate bets on the prediction market Polymarket, earning $1.2 million in profits, highlighting a serious threat to market integrity.
- High-Risk Bets: Spagnuolo placed a bet on November 27 that indie pop musician D4vd would top Google's most-searched list, despite the market assigning a near-zero probability to this outcome, revealing his misuse of internal information and raising concerns about regulatory oversight in prediction markets.
- Violation of Company Policy: Google stated that Spagnuolo's actions constitute a serious breach of company policy, leading to his suspension, which indicates the company's zero-tolerance stance on insider trading and may impact its reputation among the public and investors.
- Legal Consequences: U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton emphasized the commitment to prosecuting corporate insiders who profit from confidential business information, indicating that the government will continue to intensify its crackdown on insider trading, potentially leading to stricter market regulations.
See More
JPMorgan's Caution on Prediction Markets
- Compliance Guidance Issued: JPMorgan has issued compliance guidance to its 320,000 employees regarding prediction markets, emphasizing the need for caution when engaging with these platforms, particularly concerning insider trading risks, highlighting the firm's commitment to compliance issues.
- Participation Restrictions: The guidance advises employees to refrain from trading in prediction markets involving JPMorgan to prevent perceptions of misuse of nonpublic information, reflecting the company's strong focus on protecting internal information.
- Market Growth Surge: Prediction market trading volume surged from approximately $16 billion in 2024 to an expected $240 billion by 2026, marking a 370% increase, indicating rapid growth in this sector and drawing regulatory scrutiny.
- Industry Impact: JPMorgan's guidance may influence other Wall Street firms to adopt similar compliance measures regarding prediction market trading, signaling that the rules governing this emerging market are still being refined.
See More
Trump's Escalating Rhetoric Fuels Oil Price Predictions
- Surge in Oil Price Predictions: Amid escalating threats from Trump towards Iran, the Polymarket platform shows a rise in the probability of WTI crude oil exceeding $110 this month from 59% to 63% for the May 2026 contract, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors regarding future oil prices.
- Increased Betting Activity: A total of $18.81 million has been wagered on this contract, making it one of the most popular on Polymarket, which highlights the heightened interest and engagement of investors in oil price fluctuations.
- Escalating Geopolitical Tensions: Trump's warning to Iran that “the clock is ticking” and the potential severe consequences of inaction have intensified market concerns about oil prices, prompting investors to increase their bets on rising oil prices.
- Market Response Evident: WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.83% to $107.39 per barrel, while shares of the United States Oil Fund (USO) increased by 3.66%, reflecting a strong market reaction to the anticipated rise in oil prices, despite the fund's 80% decline since the onset of the war.
See More
U.S. Regulators Crack Down on Political Prediction Markets
- Regulatory Crackdown: The CFTC and Justice Department are investigating suspicious betting in political prediction markets, demanding information from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, indicating a swift regulatory response to the influx of capital targeting political volatility.
- Insider Trading Risks: The arrest of U.S. Army special forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke last month for profiting $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on the overthrow of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro highlights the potential for insider trading in prediction markets.
- Market Volatility Impact: Investigators are also examining a spike in oil bets placed just minutes before President Trump's announcement to delay military strikes on Iran, which caused significant swings in energy and stock markets, illustrating the direct impact of political events on market dynamics.
- Compliance Controversy: While Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC, it does not require users to provide employer information, and Polymarket does not verify user identities at all, relying instead on blockchain records to detect unusual trading activity, leading to concerns about market trust and calls for improved record-keeping to maintain market integrity.
See More
Kevin Warsh Confirmed as Next Fed Chair
- Appointment Confirmation: The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new chair of the Federal Reserve with a vote of 54-45, marking a transition in leadership amid President Trump's pressure on current chair Jerome Powell.
- Investigation Impact: The recent closure of a Department of Justice investigation into Powell had previously hindered some officials from supporting Warsh's nomination, highlighting the intricate political dynamics surrounding changes in Fed leadership.
- Cryptocurrency Stance: Although Warsh has labeled some crypto projects as fraudulent and worthless, he disclosed investments in crypto-native projects like Polymarket and Solana earlier this year, indicating a nuanced position on digital assets.
- Market Reaction: Following Warsh's confirmation, Bitcoin's price remained stable around $79,500, suggesting a measured market response to the new chair, with pro-crypto Senator Cynthia Lummis welcoming the development as a positive step for American businesses and digital asset holders.
See More
Cruise Ship Outbreak Sparks Global Concern
- Outbreak Overview: Three deaths and eight infections aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship have prompted health officials in multiple countries to trace scattered passengers, highlighting the potential risk of a wider outbreak.
- Market Reaction: On Polymarket, traders have wagered on the likelihood of hantavirus becoming a pandemic in 2026, with the current probability at 9%, a significant drop from over 40% earlier this week, reflecting market uncertainty regarding the outbreak's trajectory.
- Transmission Characteristics: The Andes virus, a strain of hantavirus, is the only known virus capable of limited human-to-human transmission, with a fatality rate of up to 40%, posing significant public health challenges due to the lack of vaccines or antiviral treatments.
- Global Tracing Efforts: With approximately 30 passengers disembarked before the outbreak was confirmed, health officials across various countries are conducting contact tracing, underscoring the complexity of the situation and the need for international cooperation.
See More
