US May Job Report Expected to Slow Down
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 51 minutes ago
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Job Growth Expectations: Dow Jones estimates that May's nonfarm payrolls will increase by 90,000, although this reflects a decline from April's 115,000 and March's 185,000, indicating resilience in the labor market.
- Market Expectation Shifts: Kalshi traders assign a 56% probability that the May job report will exceed Wall Street forecasts, with a 49% chance of adding over 100,000 new jobs, suggesting increased market confidence in job growth.
- Stable Unemployment Rate: RBC Economics anticipates 99,000 new jobs added with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, indicating stability despite limited overall job creation, as the average monthly gain over the past six months has been 55,000.
- Wage Growth Trends: Dow Jones expects hourly earnings to rise by 3.4% annually in May, slightly down from last month's 3.6%, while month-over-month growth is projected at 0.3%, higher than last month's 0.2%, reflecting ongoing wage growth sustainability.
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Analyst Views on RY
Wall Street analysts forecast RY stock price to fall
11 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 189.530
Low
158.37
Averages
168.73
High
177.08
Current: 189.530
Low
158.37
Averages
168.73
High
177.08
About RY
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) is a global financial institution. Its business includes Personal & Commercial Banking, Wealth Management, Capital Markets, and Insurance. The Personal & Commercial Banking comprises its personal banking operations and certain retail investment businesses in Canada, the Caribbean and the United States, as well as its commercial and corporate banking operations in Canada and the Caribbean. Wealth Management provides a full suite of investment, trust and other wealth management solutions for businesses. Capital Markets provides public and private companies, institutional investors, governments and central banks globally with a range of capital markets products and services across its two main business lines: corporate and investment banking and global markets. Insurance offers a range of life, health, home, auto, travel, wealth and reinsurance advice and solutions, as well as creditor and business insurance services to individual, business and group clients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
US May Job Report Expected to Slow Down
- Job Growth Expectations: Dow Jones estimates that May's nonfarm payrolls will increase by 90,000, although this reflects a decline from April's 115,000 and March's 185,000, indicating resilience in the labor market.
- Market Expectation Shifts: Kalshi traders assign a 56% probability that the May job report will exceed Wall Street forecasts, with a 49% chance of adding over 100,000 new jobs, suggesting increased market confidence in job growth.
- Stable Unemployment Rate: RBC Economics anticipates 99,000 new jobs added with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, indicating stability despite limited overall job creation, as the average monthly gain over the past six months has been 55,000.
- Wage Growth Trends: Dow Jones expects hourly earnings to rise by 3.4% annually in May, slightly down from last month's 3.6%, while month-over-month growth is projected at 0.3%, higher than last month's 0.2%, reflecting ongoing wage growth sustainability.
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- Outstanding Earnings: Royal Bank of Canada reported second-quarter earnings of $5.5 billion and adjusted earnings of $5.6 billion, marking the second-highest quarterly performance in its history, reflecting strong financial health and market competitiveness.
- Record Capital Markets Income: Capital markets net income reached $1.5 billion, up 23% year-over-year, indicating robust performance in global markets and investment banking, further solidifying the bank's leadership position in the financial services industry.
- Wealth Management Growth: Assets under administration in wealth management surpassed $1 trillion in Canada and nearly $800 billion in the U.S., demonstrating strong client trust and market demand, which is expected to drive future revenue growth.
- Dividend and Buyback Plans: The bank increased its dividend by $0.12, a 14% year-over-year increase, and announced plans to repurchase up to 45 million common shares, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns and confidence in future growth.
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- Revenue Growth: Total revenue for the quarter reached C$17.5B, exceeding the C$17.3B consensus, despite a decline from C$18.0B in the previous quarter, it reflects a 12% increase from C$15.7B a year ago, showcasing strong performance in capital markets and wealth management.
- Net Interest Income Performance: Net interest income stood at C$8.51B, exceeding the consensus of C$8.41B, although it dipped from C$8.59B in Q1, it increased by 5% from C$8.06B in Q2 last year, demonstrating the robustness of personal and commercial banking operations.
- Lower Credit Loss Provisions: Provisions for credit losses were C$912M, below the C$1.07B consensus, and down from C$1.09B in Q1 and C$1.42B a year ago, indicating effective credit risk management and improvements in asset quality.
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Multiple Companies Announce Cash Dividend Plans
- SEI Investments Dividend: On May 27, 2026, SEI Investments' Board declared a semi-annual cash dividend of $0.52 per share, payable on June 16, 2026, enhancing shareholder returns and attracting investor interest.
- TD Bank Dividend: The Toronto-Dominion Bank announced a cash dividend of $1.12 per share for the quarter ending July 31, 2026, payable after this date, aiming to reward shareholders and boost market confidence, with a record date of July 10, 2026.
- Universal Health Services Dividend: Universal Health Services' Board voted to pay a cash dividend of $0.20 per share on June 18, 2026, enhancing shareholder value, with a record date of June 8, 2026.
- CTO Realty Growth Dividend: CTO Realty Growth declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.38 per share, representing an annualized yield of approximately 7.4%, demonstrating commitment to shareholders, payable on June 30, 2026, with a record date of June 11, 2026.
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Royal Bank of Canada Announces Quarterly Dividend Increase
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- Share Buyback Plan: The company intends to repurchase up to 45 million common shares for cancellation, a move that not only helps boost earnings per share but also demonstrates confidence in its stock value, potentially attracting more investors.
- Record Date for Shareholders: The dividend will be payable on August 24, with a record date of July 27 and an ex-dividend date also on July 27, providing investors with a clear timeline to participate in the dividend.
- Market Reaction Expectations: With the announcement of the dividend and buyback plan, the market is optimistic about Royal Bank of Canada's stock performance, expecting further price increases and enhanced overall market confidence in the bank.
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US May Job Report Expected to Slow Down
- Job Growth Expectations: Dow Jones estimates that May's nonfarm payrolls will increase by 90,000, although this reflects a decline from April's 115,000 and March's 185,000, indicating resilience in the labor market.
- Market Expectation Shifts: Kalshi traders assign a 56% probability that the May job report will exceed Wall Street forecasts, with a 49% chance of adding over 100,000 new jobs, suggesting increased market confidence in job growth.
- Stable Unemployment Rate: RBC Economics anticipates 99,000 new jobs added with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, indicating stability despite limited overall job creation, as the average monthly gain over the past six months has been 55,000.
- Wage Growth Trends: Dow Jones expects hourly earnings to rise by 3.4% annually in May, slightly down from last month's 3.6%, while month-over-month growth is projected at 0.3%, higher than last month's 0.2%, reflecting ongoing wage growth sustainability.
See More
Royal Bank (RY) Q2 2026 Earnings Transcript
See More
Royal Bank of Canada Reports Record Second Quarter Earnings
- Outstanding Earnings: Royal Bank of Canada reported second-quarter earnings of $5.5 billion and adjusted earnings of $5.6 billion, marking the second-highest quarterly performance in its history, reflecting strong financial health and market competitiveness.
- Record Capital Markets Income: Capital markets net income reached $1.5 billion, up 23% year-over-year, indicating robust performance in global markets and investment banking, further solidifying the bank's leadership position in the financial services industry.
- Wealth Management Growth: Assets under administration in wealth management surpassed $1 trillion in Canada and nearly $800 billion in the U.S., demonstrating strong client trust and market demand, which is expected to drive future revenue growth.
- Dividend and Buyback Plans: The bank increased its dividend by $0.12, a 14% year-over-year increase, and announced plans to repurchase up to 45 million common shares, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns and confidence in future growth.
See More
Royal Bank of Canada Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates Driven by Revenue Growth
- Earnings Beat: Royal Bank of Canada's Q2 adjusted EPS of C$3.90 surpassed analyst expectations of C$3.79, although it fell from C$4.08 in Q1, it rose from C$3.12 a year ago, indicating sustained profitability improvements.
- Revenue Growth: Total revenue for the quarter reached C$17.5B, exceeding the C$17.3B consensus, despite a decline from C$18.0B in the previous quarter, it reflects a 12% increase from C$15.7B a year ago, showcasing strong performance in capital markets and wealth management.
- Net Interest Income Performance: Net interest income stood at C$8.51B, exceeding the consensus of C$8.41B, although it dipped from C$8.59B in Q1, it increased by 5% from C$8.06B in Q2 last year, demonstrating the robustness of personal and commercial banking operations.
- Lower Credit Loss Provisions: Provisions for credit losses were C$912M, below the C$1.07B consensus, and down from C$1.09B in Q1 and C$1.42B a year ago, indicating effective credit risk management and improvements in asset quality.
See More
Multiple Companies Announce Cash Dividend Plans
- SEI Investments Dividend: On May 27, 2026, SEI Investments' Board declared a semi-annual cash dividend of $0.52 per share, payable on June 16, 2026, enhancing shareholder returns and attracting investor interest.
- TD Bank Dividend: The Toronto-Dominion Bank announced a cash dividend of $1.12 per share for the quarter ending July 31, 2026, payable after this date, aiming to reward shareholders and boost market confidence, with a record date of July 10, 2026.
- Universal Health Services Dividend: Universal Health Services' Board voted to pay a cash dividend of $0.20 per share on June 18, 2026, enhancing shareholder value, with a record date of June 8, 2026.
- CTO Realty Growth Dividend: CTO Realty Growth declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.38 per share, representing an annualized yield of approximately 7.4%, demonstrating commitment to shareholders, payable on June 30, 2026, with a record date of June 11, 2026.
See More
Royal Bank of Canada Announces Quarterly Dividend Increase
- Dividend Increase: Royal Bank of Canada declares a quarterly dividend of CAD 1.76 per share, reflecting a 7.3% increase from the previous CAD 1.64, indicating strong profitability and cash flow, which enhances investor confidence.
- Share Buyback Plan: The company intends to repurchase up to 45 million common shares for cancellation, a move that not only helps boost earnings per share but also demonstrates confidence in its stock value, potentially attracting more investors.
- Record Date for Shareholders: The dividend will be payable on August 24, with a record date of July 27 and an ex-dividend date also on July 27, providing investors with a clear timeline to participate in the dividend.
- Market Reaction Expectations: With the announcement of the dividend and buyback plan, the market is optimistic about Royal Bank of Canada's stock performance, expecting further price increases and enhanced overall market confidence in the bank.
See More
