U.S. Intensifies Competition in Critical Minerals Sector
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2d ago
0mins
Should l Buy MP?
Source: CNBC
- Critical Minerals Strategy: The U.S. government has prioritized critical minerals as a national security issue, launching a strategic stockpile initiative called 'Project Vault' aimed at enhancing supply chain control for electric vehicles and defense systems, thereby elevating the nation's position in global competition.
- Geopolitical Implications: The intensifying competition between the U.S. and China in the critical minerals sector, particularly in rare earths where China holds about 70% of the global market share, necessitates increased U.S. focus on countries like Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela to secure resource supply chains.
- Market Volatility Expectations: While the market has largely shrugged off geopolitical tensions, investors remain optimistic about fiscal stimulus and strong earnings growth, anticipating continued volatility, especially in the critical minerals and alternative investment sectors.
- Investment Opportunities: Following the surge in rare earth mining stocks due to the critical minerals stockpile announcement, investors are encouraged to directly invest in commodities rather than related companies to achieve purer market exposure, indicating a growing interest in mining and alternative investments.
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Analyst Views on MP
Wall Street analysts forecast MP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MP is 76.13 USD with a low forecast of 55.27 USD and a high forecast of 94.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 56.550
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
Current: 56.550
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
About MP
MP Materials Corp. produces specialty materials that are vital inputs for electrification and other advanced technologies. The Company owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility (Mountain Pass) located in California. It is also developing a rare earth metal, alloy and magnet manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas (Independence Facility). The Company’s segments include Materials and Magnetics. The Materials segment operates Mountain Pass, which produces refined rare earth products as well as rare earth concentrate and related products. The Materials segment primarily generates revenue from sales of rare earth concentrate, primarily sold for further distribution to a single, principal customer in China, and sales of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and metal, primarily sold to customers in Japan, South Korea, and broader Asia. The Magnetics segment operates the Independence Facility, where it produces magnetic precursor products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Stock Surge: MP Materials experienced a staggering over 500% increase in stock price in 2025, ending the year with a remarkable 223.8% gain, reflecting strong market demand and investor confidence despite a slight pullback.
- Government Backing: In July 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense acquired a 15% equity stake, becoming the largest shareholder, which underscores the government's commitment to securing rare earth supply chains and further solidifies the company's market position.
- Strategic Partnership: MP Materials entered a landmark $500 billion partnership with Apple to produce rare earth magnets from recycled materials, which is expected to significantly enhance its production capabilities and market share while promoting sustainability.
- Future Outlook: With the commissioning of its heavy rare earth separation facility, MP Materials anticipates achieving a production capacity of 10,000 metric tons of magnets in 2026, marking a successful transition from mining to manufacturing, and suggesting potential for continued stock price appreciation.
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- Critical Minerals Partnership Talks: U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced that the U.S. is negotiating with Mexico to establish a critical minerals partnership that would set minimum prices for essential elements, thereby enhancing the stability of North American supply chains and reducing reliance on China.
- Global Market Implications: Greer emphasized that this partnership is part of the review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, indicating that the world's largest market-oriented economies are committed to developing a new paradigm for preferential trade in critical minerals, which could affect investment strategies in related sectors.
- Investment Trends: The Trump administration has aggressively sought to reduce dependence on China for rare earths, investing in companies like MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, a strategy that could drive rapid growth in the U.S. critical minerals industry.
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- Critical Minerals Strategy: The U.S. government has prioritized critical minerals as a national security issue, launching a strategic stockpile initiative called 'Project Vault' aimed at enhancing supply chain control for electric vehicles and defense systems, thereby elevating the nation's position in global competition.
- Geopolitical Implications: The intensifying competition between the U.S. and China in the critical minerals sector, particularly in rare earths where China holds about 70% of the global market share, necessitates increased U.S. focus on countries like Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela to secure resource supply chains.
- Market Volatility Expectations: While the market has largely shrugged off geopolitical tensions, investors remain optimistic about fiscal stimulus and strong earnings growth, anticipating continued volatility, especially in the critical minerals and alternative investment sectors.
- Investment Opportunities: Following the surge in rare earth mining stocks due to the critical minerals stockpile announcement, investors are encouraged to directly invest in commodities rather than related companies to achieve purer market exposure, indicating a growing interest in mining and alternative investments.
See More
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- Action Plan Details: The U.S. Trade Representative indicated that the collaboration with Mexico will focus on establishing price floors for critical mineral imports and exploring how to implement these minimum prices in agreements with other nations.
- Strategic Partnerships: The cooperation with the EU and Japan will include a strategic partnership on critical minerals, with a memorandum of understanding on supply chain security expected within 30 days, demonstrating commitment from major market-oriented economies to a new trade paradigm.
- Policy Center Shift: The Trump administration has prioritized critical minerals in its trade and industrial policies to reduce dependence on China, enhancing domestic supply chain security through a national critical mineral stockpile and equity investments in related companies.
See More
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- Significance: This event highlights the importance of securing a stable supply of critical minerals for national security and economic growth.
- Participants: The meeting is expected to involve discussions among key stakeholders, including government officials and industry leaders.
See More
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- Stock Surge: MP Materials experienced a staggering over 500% increase in stock price in 2025, ending the year with a remarkable 223.8% gain, reflecting strong market demand and investor confidence despite a slight pullback.
- Government Backing: In July 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense acquired a 15% equity stake, becoming the largest shareholder, which underscores the government's commitment to securing rare earth supply chains and further solidifies the company's market position.
- Strategic Partnership: MP Materials entered a landmark $500 billion partnership with Apple to produce rare earth magnets from recycled materials, which is expected to significantly enhance its production capabilities and market share while promoting sustainability.
- Future Outlook: With the commissioning of its heavy rare earth separation facility, MP Materials anticipates achieving a production capacity of 10,000 metric tons of magnets in 2026, marking a successful transition from mining to manufacturing, and suggesting potential for continued stock price appreciation.
See More
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Robots on the Rise: The development of robots is advancing rapidly, suggesting a potential future where they play a significant role in society.
Implications of Robot Integration: The increasing presence of robots raises questions about their impact on various aspects of life, including work and daily activities.
See More
U.S.-Mexico Minerals Partnership and Fed Hearing Insights
- Fed Hearing Controversy: Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina stated that while he believes Fed Chair Jerome Powell made a significant error in judgment during last year's congressional hearing, he does not think Powell committed any crimes, which may influence market confidence in Fed policies.
- Critical Minerals Partnership Talks: U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced that the U.S. is negotiating with Mexico to establish a critical minerals partnership that would set minimum prices for essential elements, thereby enhancing the stability of North American supply chains and reducing reliance on China.
- Global Market Implications: Greer emphasized that this partnership is part of the review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, indicating that the world's largest market-oriented economies are committed to developing a new paradigm for preferential trade in critical minerals, which could affect investment strategies in related sectors.
- Investment Trends: The Trump administration has aggressively sought to reduce dependence on China for rare earths, investing in companies like MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, a strategy that could drive rapid growth in the U.S. critical minerals industry.
See More
U.S. Intensifies Competition in Critical Minerals Sector
- Critical Minerals Strategy: The U.S. government has prioritized critical minerals as a national security issue, launching a strategic stockpile initiative called 'Project Vault' aimed at enhancing supply chain control for electric vehicles and defense systems, thereby elevating the nation's position in global competition.
- Geopolitical Implications: The intensifying competition between the U.S. and China in the critical minerals sector, particularly in rare earths where China holds about 70% of the global market share, necessitates increased U.S. focus on countries like Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela to secure resource supply chains.
- Market Volatility Expectations: While the market has largely shrugged off geopolitical tensions, investors remain optimistic about fiscal stimulus and strong earnings growth, anticipating continued volatility, especially in the critical minerals and alternative investment sectors.
- Investment Opportunities: Following the surge in rare earth mining stocks due to the critical minerals stockpile announcement, investors are encouraged to directly invest in commodities rather than related companies to achieve purer market exposure, indicating a growing interest in mining and alternative investments.
See More
US Collaborates with Mexico and Others on Critical Mineral Price Floors
- Critical Minerals Collaboration: The U.S. is partnering with Mexico, the EU, and Japan to implement minimum pricing for critical minerals within the next 60 days, addressing global market distortions and enhancing North American supply chain resilience.
- Action Plan Details: The U.S. Trade Representative indicated that the collaboration with Mexico will focus on establishing price floors for critical mineral imports and exploring how to implement these minimum prices in agreements with other nations.
- Strategic Partnerships: The cooperation with the EU and Japan will include a strategic partnership on critical minerals, with a memorandum of understanding on supply chain security expected within 30 days, demonstrating commitment from major market-oriented economies to a new trade paradigm.
- Policy Center Shift: The Trump administration has prioritized critical minerals in its trade and industrial policies to reduce dependence on China, enhancing domestic supply chain security through a national critical mineral stockpile and equity investments in related companies.
See More
MP Stock Plummets Amid Vance and Rubio's Discussion on Critical Minerals
- Event Announcement: Secretary of State Marco Rubio is hosting the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday.
- Focus of the Meeting: The ministerial aims to address issues related to critical minerals, which are essential for various industries and technologies.
- Significance: This event highlights the importance of securing a stable supply of critical minerals for national security and economic growth.
- Participants: The meeting is expected to involve discussions among key stakeholders, including government officials and industry leaders.
See More
