U.S. Advances Toward Approval of Deep-Sea Mining in International Waters
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 23 2025
0mins
Source: SeekingAlpha
U.S. Government's Move on Deep-Sea Mining: The U.S. is nearing approval for deep-sea mining in international waters, with public hearings scheduled for applications from The Metals Company, marking a significant step in securing critical minerals like nickel and cobalt.
Environmental and Legal Concerns: The initiative faces strong environmental opposition and legal uncertainties, as it may bypass the International Seabed Authority and could lead to court challenges, while the long-term ecological impacts remain largely unknown.
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Analyst Views on TMC
Wall Street analysts forecast TMC stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 4.620
Low
6.50
Averages
8.33
High
11.00
Current: 4.620
Low
6.50
Averages
8.33
High
11.00
About TMC
TMC the metals company Inc. is a deep-sea minerals exploration company. The Company is focused on the collection and processing of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in international waters of the Clarion Clipperton Zone in the Pacific Ocean (CCZ), located approximately 1,300 nautical miles southwest of San Diego, California. The CCZ is a geological submarine fracture zone of abyssal plains and other formations in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, with a length of around 4,500 miles that spans approximately 1,737,000 square miles. These nodules contain high grades of four metals (nickel, copper, cobalt, manganese) which can be used as feedstock for battery cathode precursors (nickel, cobalt and manganese sulfates, or intermediate nickel-copper-cobalt matte) for electric vehicles (EV) and energy storage markets; copper cathode for EV wiring, energy transmission and other applications, and manganese silicate for manganese alloy production required for steel production.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
TMC's Deep-Sea Mining Prospects Analysis
- Strategic Mineral Value: TMC focuses on harvesting polymetallic nodules rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese, which are crucial for the U.S.; despite strong demand, supply remains weak, highlighting TMC's potential importance in the U.S. supply chain.
- Regulatory Hurdles: Although TMC possesses billions of dollars worth of nodules, it cannot legally harvest them due to a lack of a commercial recovery permit, with the current regulatory impasse limiting its commercialization process and affecting investor confidence.
- Future Outlook: TMC is expected to secure the necessary commercial recovery permit within the next 12 months, potentially transforming it from a speculative venture into a metal company with a defined revenue path, which could significantly enhance its market value.
- Technological Progress: TMC has demonstrated the effectiveness of its nodule collection technology and is advancing a potential processing hub in Brownsville, Texas, indicating the company is laying the groundwork for commercial production, although the market remains cautious about its high valuation of approximately 25 times book value.
See More
Rare Earth Minerals Emerge as Pillars of Global Economy
- Market Growth Potential: The global rare earth elements market was valued at approximately $3.95 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach about $6.28 billion by 2030, implying a solid ~8.6% CAGR, highlighting the industry's strategic importance in electric vehicles and clean energy.
- Geopolitical Impact: With China accounting for roughly 60% of global rare earth production and processing, the U.S. and its allies are aggressively investing in domestic supply chains, creating a multi-year investment cycle that transforms the rare earth sector into a policy-driven growth market.
- SAGA Acquisition Project: SAGA Metals Corp. has signed an agreement to acquire the Wolverine heavy rare earth project in Labrador, which shows mineralization potential similar to Strange Lake and Tanbreez, expected to enhance the company's strategic position in North American supply security and defense priorities.
- Mineralization Potential Confirmation: The 2025 reverse circulation drilling confirmed rare earth mineralization across a 1.7 km × 1.2 km area, with key intercepts showing grades up to 2.03% TREO, indicating significant resource definition potential that supports future drilling and development plans.
See More
TMC The Metals Company Advances in Deep-Sea Mining
- Commercial Permit Progress: TMC is expediting its application for a commercial mining permit, expected to be granted within the next 12 months, which would transform it from a speculative venture into a metal company with a clear revenue path, significantly boosting market confidence.
- Mineral Value Potential: TMC's polymetallic nodule reserves are estimated to be worth billions, with its current stock price at $4.50, approximately 8.5% of its net present value, indicating substantial upside potential if mining operations succeed, attracting investor interest.
- Technology and Infrastructure Development: The company has demonstrated the effectiveness of its nodule collection technology and equipped the vessel
See More
TMC The Metals Company Faces Regulatory Bottleneck
- Mineral Resource Potential: TMC possesses polymetallic nodules worth billions, rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese, all critical to the U.S., yet the lack of a commercial recovery permit hinders its ability to legally harvest these resources, limiting market potential.
- Regulatory Progress Optimism: TMC could secure the necessary commercial recovery permit within the next 12 months, transforming it from a speculative idea into a metal company with a defined revenue path, significantly enhancing its market position.
- Technical Readiness: TMC has demonstrated the effectiveness of its nodule collection technology, equipped on its vessel
See More
Deep-Sea Mining Start-Up Faces Challenges
- Application Progress: TMC's deep-sea mining application received substantial compliance from NOAA, indicating no revisions are needed, yet this does not guarantee final approval, highlighting ongoing regulatory challenges for the company.
- International Cooperation: The agreement between the U.S. and Japan to collaborate on deep-sea mining is a positive development; however, it does not alleviate the near-term challenges TMC faces, indicating significant hurdles remain.
- Financial Status: TMC is currently operating at a loss with no revenue generation, as all expenses are investments towards future deep-sea mining operations, underscoring the high-risk nature of its business model.
- Stock Price Volatility: Despite a 150% increase in stock price over the past year, it has fallen over 50% from its 52-week high, suggesting that market sentiment and news flow significantly impact the stock, necessitating cautious investment strategies.
See More
TMC Stock Volatility and Regulatory Challenges
- Stock Volatility: Although TMC's stock surged over 450% in 2025 to a peak of $11 per share, it has since plummeted to $4.59 as of April 6, indicating significant market uncertainty regarding its future prospects.
- Regulatory Approval Progress: TMC is awaiting approval from the NOAA and recently received an encouraging update from the White House, indicating that the company is in 'substantial compliance,' paving the way for potential commercial operations.
- Severe Financial Condition: By the end of 2025, TMC had $117.6 million in cash, yet its operating losses exceeded $140 million last year, reflecting major challenges in profitability and a significant increase in losses compared to the previous year.
- Environmental and Technological Concerns: While TMC claims its mining methods are 80% less environmentally impactful than others, scientists and environmentalists express concerns about potential negative consequences of deep-sea mining, and no company has successfully conducted commercial harvesting of metals from the deep sea, heightening investment risks.
See More
TMC's Deep-Sea Mining Prospects Analysis
- Strategic Mineral Value: TMC focuses on harvesting polymetallic nodules rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese, which are crucial for the U.S.; despite strong demand, supply remains weak, highlighting TMC's potential importance in the U.S. supply chain.
- Regulatory Hurdles: Although TMC possesses billions of dollars worth of nodules, it cannot legally harvest them due to a lack of a commercial recovery permit, with the current regulatory impasse limiting its commercialization process and affecting investor confidence.
- Future Outlook: TMC is expected to secure the necessary commercial recovery permit within the next 12 months, potentially transforming it from a speculative venture into a metal company with a defined revenue path, which could significantly enhance its market value.
- Technological Progress: TMC has demonstrated the effectiveness of its nodule collection technology and is advancing a potential processing hub in Brownsville, Texas, indicating the company is laying the groundwork for commercial production, although the market remains cautious about its high valuation of approximately 25 times book value.
See More
Rare Earth Minerals Emerge as Pillars of Global Economy
- Market Growth Potential: The global rare earth elements market was valued at approximately $3.95 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach about $6.28 billion by 2030, implying a solid ~8.6% CAGR, highlighting the industry's strategic importance in electric vehicles and clean energy.
- Geopolitical Impact: With China accounting for roughly 60% of global rare earth production and processing, the U.S. and its allies are aggressively investing in domestic supply chains, creating a multi-year investment cycle that transforms the rare earth sector into a policy-driven growth market.
- SAGA Acquisition Project: SAGA Metals Corp. has signed an agreement to acquire the Wolverine heavy rare earth project in Labrador, which shows mineralization potential similar to Strange Lake and Tanbreez, expected to enhance the company's strategic position in North American supply security and defense priorities.
- Mineralization Potential Confirmation: The 2025 reverse circulation drilling confirmed rare earth mineralization across a 1.7 km × 1.2 km area, with key intercepts showing grades up to 2.03% TREO, indicating significant resource definition potential that supports future drilling and development plans.
See More
TMC The Metals Company Advances in Deep-Sea Mining
- Commercial Permit Progress: TMC is expediting its application for a commercial mining permit, expected to be granted within the next 12 months, which would transform it from a speculative venture into a metal company with a clear revenue path, significantly boosting market confidence.
- Mineral Value Potential: TMC's polymetallic nodule reserves are estimated to be worth billions, with its current stock price at $4.50, approximately 8.5% of its net present value, indicating substantial upside potential if mining operations succeed, attracting investor interest.
- Technology and Infrastructure Development: The company has demonstrated the effectiveness of its nodule collection technology and equipped the vessel
See More
TMC The Metals Company Faces Regulatory Bottleneck
- Mineral Resource Potential: TMC possesses polymetallic nodules worth billions, rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese, all critical to the U.S., yet the lack of a commercial recovery permit hinders its ability to legally harvest these resources, limiting market potential.
- Regulatory Progress Optimism: TMC could secure the necessary commercial recovery permit within the next 12 months, transforming it from a speculative idea into a metal company with a defined revenue path, significantly enhancing its market position.
- Technical Readiness: TMC has demonstrated the effectiveness of its nodule collection technology, equipped on its vessel
See More
Deep-Sea Mining Start-Up Faces Challenges
- Application Progress: TMC's deep-sea mining application received substantial compliance from NOAA, indicating no revisions are needed, yet this does not guarantee final approval, highlighting ongoing regulatory challenges for the company.
- International Cooperation: The agreement between the U.S. and Japan to collaborate on deep-sea mining is a positive development; however, it does not alleviate the near-term challenges TMC faces, indicating significant hurdles remain.
- Financial Status: TMC is currently operating at a loss with no revenue generation, as all expenses are investments towards future deep-sea mining operations, underscoring the high-risk nature of its business model.
- Stock Price Volatility: Despite a 150% increase in stock price over the past year, it has fallen over 50% from its 52-week high, suggesting that market sentiment and news flow significantly impact the stock, necessitating cautious investment strategies.
See More
TMC Stock Volatility and Regulatory Challenges
- Stock Volatility: Although TMC's stock surged over 450% in 2025 to a peak of $11 per share, it has since plummeted to $4.59 as of April 6, indicating significant market uncertainty regarding its future prospects.
- Regulatory Approval Progress: TMC is awaiting approval from the NOAA and recently received an encouraging update from the White House, indicating that the company is in 'substantial compliance,' paving the way for potential commercial operations.
- Severe Financial Condition: By the end of 2025, TMC had $117.6 million in cash, yet its operating losses exceeded $140 million last year, reflecting major challenges in profitability and a significant increase in losses compared to the previous year.
- Environmental and Technological Concerns: While TMC claims its mining methods are 80% less environmentally impactful than others, scientists and environmentalists express concerns about potential negative consequences of deep-sea mining, and no company has successfully conducted commercial harvesting of metals from the deep sea, heightening investment risks.
See More
