Upwork Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 9th
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1d ago
0mins
Should l Buy UPWK?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Announcement: Upwork (UPWK) is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings on February 9th after market close, with consensus EPS estimated at $0.31, reflecting a 3.3% year-over-year increase, and revenue expected at $197.52 million, up 3.1%, indicating solid growth performance.
- Strong Historical Performance: UPWK has beaten both EPS and revenue estimates 100% of the time over the past two years, showcasing the company's reliability in financial performance and management execution, which boosts investor confidence.
- Positive Estimate Revisions: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen eight upward revisions with no downward adjustments, while revenue estimates have experienced eleven upward revisions, indicating analysts' optimistic outlook on the company's future performance and potential market demand growth.
- Enhanced Market Position: Upwork has been added to ClearBridge Small Cap Strategy's portfolio while exiting Alexander & Baldwin, highlighting its increasing attractiveness among small-cap stocks, and is set to join the S&P SmallCap 600 index, further enhancing its market recognition.
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Analyst Views on UPWK
Wall Street analysts forecast UPWK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for UPWK is 23.33 USD with a low forecast of 17.00 USD and a high forecast of 28.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 18.930
Low
17.00
Averages
23.33
High
28.00
Current: 18.930
Low
17.00
Averages
23.33
High
28.00
About UPWK
Upwork Inc. operates a working marketplace, which connects businesses with independent talent. The Company's independent talent refers to the talent that includes independent professionals and agencies of varying sizes. The Company’s marketplace offerings are designed for clients looking to identify hiring. Its marketplace offerings provide clients with access to independent talent with verified work history on its work marketplace, as well as client feedback. They also receive perks, such as a verified client badge and highlighted job posts. Upwork Payroll is available to clients when they choose to work with talent that they engage through Upwork as employees. With Upwork Payroll, clients have access to third-party staffing providers to employ talent and meet their talent needs through its work marketplace. It offers two lines of service: managed services and enterprise solutions. Its managed services offer a service-led program management and full project lifecycle solution.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Upwork Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations but Q1 Outlook Falls Short
- Revenue Growth: Upwork reported a 4% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4 2025, reaching $198.4 million, surpassing Wall Street's expectations of $197.25 million, indicating resilience in its market position.
- Earnings Performance: The company posted adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.36, comfortably exceeding analysts' estimates of $0.31, reflecting an improvement in profitability.
- Outlook Concerns: Despite a strong 2025 performance, Upwork's forecast for Q1 2026 projects adjusted diluted earnings per share between $0.26 and $0.28, falling short of the $0.32 expected by analysts, which led to a 23% drop in after-hours trading.
- Market Opportunity: CEO Hayden Brown emphasized that the company is positioned to capitalize on a $1.3 trillion market opportunity for flexible digital knowledge work, showcasing its ambitious long-term strategy.
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- Significant AI-Related Growth: In Q4, GSV from AI-related work surpassed $300 million, reflecting over 50% year-over-year growth, which not only enhances Upwork's market competitiveness but also lays a solid foundation for future revenue increases.
- Strong Client Growth: Business Plus clients grew 49% sequentially in Q4, with 38% being new clients, indicating a significant increase in Upwork's penetration in the SMB market, which is expected to further drive revenue growth.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management expects GSV growth in 2026 to range from 4% to 6% and revenue growth from 6% to 8%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 29%, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth and commitment to ongoing investments.
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- Upwork Client Decline: Upwork revealed that active clients at the end of 2025 totaled 785,000, down from 832,000 the previous year, leading to a 22% plunge in shares; additionally, the current quarter revenue guidance of $192 million to $197 million fell short of the $201 million consensus estimate, highlighting weakening market demand.
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- Stable Client Growth: The company ended the quarter with 785,000 active clients, a 4% year-over-year increase, while gross services volume per active client reached $5,129, up 7% year-over-year, indicating positive progress in client retention and service quality.
- Share Buyback Execution: Upwork repurchased 2 million shares for $34 million in Q4, demonstrating confidence in its value, with $64 million remaining in its buyback program as of December 31, 2025, which bolsters investor confidence.
- Cautious Outlook: The company expects Q1 revenue between $192 million and $197 million, below the market estimate of $200.83 million, and its full-year revenue guidance is also slightly below analyst expectations, leading to a 22.35% drop in shares during after-hours trading.
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- Share Repurchase Program: Upwork returned $136 million to shareholders through its repurchase program in 2025, acquiring 9.3 million shares, including 2 million shares for $34 million in Q4, demonstrating confidence in its value and commitment to shareholders.
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- Earnings Performance: The company posted adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.36, comfortably exceeding analysts' estimates of $0.31, reflecting an improvement in profitability.
- Outlook Concerns: Despite a strong 2025 performance, Upwork's forecast for Q1 2026 projects adjusted diluted earnings per share between $0.26 and $0.28, falling short of the $0.32 expected by analysts, which led to a 23% drop in after-hours trading.
- Market Opportunity: CEO Hayden Brown emphasized that the company is positioned to capitalize on a $1.3 trillion market opportunity for flexible digital knowledge work, showcasing its ambitious long-term strategy.
See More
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- Successful Business Transformation: Upwork completed a three-year transformation in 2025, reporting over $4 billion in Gross Services Volume (GSV), $788 million in revenue, and $226 million in adjusted EBITDA, all at record levels, demonstrating the company's leadership in the AI era.
- Significant AI-Related Growth: In Q4, GSV from AI-related work surpassed $300 million, reflecting over 50% year-over-year growth, which not only enhances Upwork's market competitiveness but also lays a solid foundation for future revenue increases.
- Strong Client Growth: Business Plus clients grew 49% sequentially in Q4, with 38% being new clients, indicating a significant increase in Upwork's penetration in the SMB market, which is expected to further drive revenue growth.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management expects GSV growth in 2026 to range from 4% to 6% and revenue growth from 6% to 8%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 29%, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth and commitment to ongoing investments.
See More
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- Upwork Client Decline: Upwork revealed that active clients at the end of 2025 totaled 785,000, down from 832,000 the previous year, leading to a 22% plunge in shares; additionally, the current quarter revenue guidance of $192 million to $197 million fell short of the $201 million consensus estimate, highlighting weakening market demand.
- Chegg Performance Decline: Chegg's fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $12.9 million, a significant 65% drop year-over-year, with revenue at $72.7 million, down 49%, causing a 5% decline in shares; this stark performance decline underscores the challenges facing the online education sector.
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See More
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- Stable Client Growth: The company ended the quarter with 785,000 active clients, a 4% year-over-year increase, while gross services volume per active client reached $5,129, up 7% year-over-year, indicating positive progress in client retention and service quality.
- Share Buyback Execution: Upwork repurchased 2 million shares for $34 million in Q4, demonstrating confidence in its value, with $64 million remaining in its buyback program as of December 31, 2025, which bolsters investor confidence.
- Cautious Outlook: The company expects Q1 revenue between $192 million and $197 million, below the market estimate of $200.83 million, and its full-year revenue guidance is also slightly below analyst expectations, leading to a 22.35% drop in shares during after-hours trading.
See More
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- Adjusted EBITDA Growth: The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $52.9 million, a 5% increase from $50.2 million in Q4 2024, while the full-year adjusted EBITDA reached $225.6 million, up 35% from $167.6 million in 2024, reflecting significant improvements in profitability.
- Cash Flow Performance: Operating cash flow for Q4 was $63.7 million, a substantial increase from $38.6 million in Q4 2024, with total cash flow for 2025 at $248.3 million, a 62% rise compared to 2024, showcasing effective cash flow management.
- Share Repurchase Program: Upwork returned $136 million to shareholders through its repurchase program in 2025, acquiring 9.3 million shares, including 2 million shares for $34 million in Q4, demonstrating confidence in its value and commitment to shareholders.
See More
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- Roblox Options Trading: Concurrently, Roblox Corp (RBLX) recorded an options trading volume of 94,882 contracts today, translating to approximately 9.5 million shares, or about 60.4% of its average daily trading volume of 15.7 million shares over the past month, reflecting active market engagement.
- Focus on Put Options: Particularly, the $25 strike put option expiring on December 18, 2026, had a trading volume of 13,003 contracts today, representing approximately 1.3 million underlying shares, indicating a cautious outlook from investors on the stock's future performance.
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