On the company's Q4 earnings call, UPS (UPS) discussed 2026 and the last two quarters of its six-quarter glide down of Amazon (AMZN) volume. "In total, for the full year, we intend to glide down another 1 million pieces per day of Amazon volume. Along with this reduction in volume, we will continue to reconfigure our U.S. network and take out variable, semi-variable, and fixed costs. Looking at the variable costs associated with the Amazon volume decline, in 2026, we plan to reduce total operational hours by approximately 25 million hours. In terms of semi-variable costs, we expect to reduce operational positions by up to 30,000. This will be accomplished through attrition, and we expect to offer a second voluntary separation program for full-time drivers. And in the fixed cost bucket, we have identified 24 buildings for closure in the first half of the year, and we're evaluating additional buildings to be closed later in the year. Plus, we plan to further deploy automation across the network. Pulling it all together, we are targeting $3B in savings related to the Amazon glide down," an executive from the shipper stated.
Wall Street analysts forecast UPS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for UPS is 107.06 USD with a low forecast of 80.00 USD and a high forecast of 126.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast UPS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for UPS is 107.06 USD with a low forecast of 80.00 USD and a high forecast of 126.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 106.970
Low
80.00
Averages
107.06
High
126.00
Current: 106.970
Low
80.00
Averages
107.06
High
126.00
Evercore ISI
analyst
In Line
maintain
$94 -> $113
2026-01-21
Reason
Evercore ISI
analyst
Price Target
$94 -> $113
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
maintain
In Line
Reason
Evercore ISI raised the firm's price target on UPS to $113 from $94 and keeps an In Line rating on the shares. Mixed macro conditions are influencing revenue projections with cost initiatives being crucial for EPS growth, notes the analyst in a preview, adding that upcoming Q4 earnings are "expected to hold steady."
BofA
Underperform -> Neutral
upgrade
$99 -> $114
2026-01-09
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$99 -> $114
2026-01-09
upgrade
Underperform -> Neutral
Reason
BofA upgraded UPS to Neutral from Underperform with a price target of $114, up from $99. The company is moving past a "horrible year" where it began severance of 50% of Amazon volumes over an 18-month period, ended its relationship with the USPS for last mile of SurePost and had de minimis volumes lost over an Executive Order and tariff rule changes, the analyst noted.
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Bernstein
David Vernon
Outperform
maintain
$122 -> $125
2026-01-09
Reason
Bernstein
David Vernon
Price Target
$122 -> $125
2026-01-09
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Bernstein analyst David Vernon raised the firm's price target on UPS to $125 from $122 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm believes dividend risk is overstated as margins improve and believes future growth is likely levered to higher return markets.
Wolfe Research
Outperform -> Peer Perform
downgrade
2026-01-08
Reason
Wolfe Research
Price Target
2026-01-08
downgrade
Outperform -> Peer Perform
Reason
Wolfe Research downgraded UPS to Peer Perform from Outperform without a price target. The firm cites valuation for the downgrade with the shares above its prior price target. The downgrade of part of the firm's 2026 outlook.
About UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc. provides a range of integrated logistics solutions for customers in more than 200 countries and territories. Its U.S. Domestic Package segment offers a range of United States domestic air and ground package transportation services. Its air portfolio offers time-definite, same-day, next-day, two-day and three-day delivery alternatives as well as air cargo services. Its ground network enables customers to ship using its day-definite ground service. UPS SurePost provides residential ground service for customers with non-urgent, lightweight residential shipments. Its International Package segment consists of small package operations in Europe, Indian sub-continent, Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America and Asia. It offers a selection of guaranteed day- and time-definite international shipping services. Its supply chain solutions consist of forwarding, logistics, customized third-party logistics and specialized cold chain transportation solutions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
