UBS Anticipates MGM CHINA (02282.HK) Property Enhancements Will Support Market Share This Year; Maintains Buy Rating
Market Outlook: MGM CHINA anticipates a mid-single-digit growth in daily average GGR by 2026, driven by a strong premium market.
Property Upgrades: The company is enhancing its properties, including converting 160 rooms into 60 suites and launching a new premium mass area in Cotai by the first half of 2026.
Financial Projections: MGM CHINA expects to maintain a market share of 15-17% and a mid-high 20% EBITDA profit margin, with operating expenses aligned with revenue growth.
Analyst Rating: UBS has rated MGM CHINA as a Buy with a 12-month target price of $18.5, considering recent share price corrections as overdone.
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G Sachs Research: January GGR Exceeds Expectations; 1Q GGR Projected to Increase 17% Year-over-Year
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's January Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) grew by 24% year-on-year to MOP22.6 billion, reaching 91% of the 2019 level, driven by a healthy increase in mainland Chinese visitors.
Impact of Events on Gaming Demand: Goldman Sachs believes that the upcoming Winter Olympic Games will not significantly affect gaming demand, while the World Cup may impact monthly revenue by no more than 5%.
SANDS CHINA LTD Financials: Despite reporting lower-than-expected EBITDA in 4Q25 due to one-off expenses and a shift towards lower-margin segments, Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on SANDS CHINA LTD.
Outlook for Other Companies: Goldman Sachs anticipates solid 4Q25 results for GALAXY ENT and MGM CHINA, with expected EBITDA increases of 28% and 8% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, and reiterates Buy ratings for these stocks.
M Stanley Predicts 18% Year-Over-Year Growth in MO 1Q GGR, Prefers GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD
Macau's GGR Performance: In January 2026, Macau's Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) increased by 24% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, reaching MOP22.6 billion, surpassing market expectations according to Morgan Stanley.
February Growth Expectations: The upcoming Lunar New Year holiday is anticipated to boost February's GGR, with a projected year-on-year growth of 22%.
1Q26 GGR Forecast: Morgan Stanley predicts an 18% year-on-year increase in Macau's GGR for the first quarter of 2026, benefiting from a low base in early 2025.
Stock Recommendations: The broker favors stocks such as Galaxy Entertainment, Sands China, and Melco Resorts, all rated Overweight, while MGM China is rated Neutral and SJM Holdings is rated Underweight.
SANDS CHINA LTD Rises Over 4% Despite Market Trends, Following Strong January GGR from MO
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's January Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) reached MOP22.633 billion, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase and surpassing market expectations by about 5%.
Stock Market Reactions: Major gaming companies like Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment saw their stock prices rise, with Sands China up 4.58% and Galaxy Entertainment up 0.95%, despite initial declines.
Market Forecasts: Analysts from Morgan Stanley and CLSA predict continued growth in Macau's GGR, with expectations of an 18% year-over-year increase in the first quarter and potential upside risks to annual growth forecasts.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling statistics for various companies, indicating varying levels of market confidence, with SJM Holdings showing a notably high short selling ratio of 29.649%.
G Sachs Anticipates 4% Growth in MO Gaming Industry/GALAXY ENT EBITDA, Approximately 30% QoQ in 4Q25
Macau Casino Earnings Outlook: Goldman Sachs anticipates that Macau casino stocks will report a 4% QoQ and 13% YoY increase in EBITDA, despite concerns over rising expenses and competition, as investors focus on profit trends.
GALAXY ENT Projections: The report specifically forecasts GALAXY ENT's 4Q25 EBITDA to rise by 28% QoQ to USD550 million, driven by a higher VIP win rate, and maintains a Buy rating on GALAXY ENT, MGM CHINA, and SANDS CHINA LTD due to attractive valuations.
M Stanley Anticipates Minor Margin Compression for Casinos in Q4 2025, Favors GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD
Macau Gaming Industry Forecast: Morgan Stanley has revised its 4Q25 forecast for Macau's gaming industry downward due to a shift towards high VIP business and rising operating expenses, predicting a slight decrease in profit margins.
EBITDA Growth Expectations: The average adjusted property EBITDA for 4Q25 is expected to grow by 4% quarter-over-quarter and 13% year-over-year, aligning with market consensus.
Stock Ratings and Performance: UBS favors GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD, both rated Overweight, while MGM CHINA has been downgraded to Equalweight due to increased royalty fees, despite a potential recovery in market share.
Market Trends: MGM CHINA underperformed in December but may see some recovery in 4Q25, while SJM HOLDINGS is rated Underweight amid ongoing market challenges.
HSBC Research Raises SANDS CHINA LTD Rating to Buy and Increases MO GGR Growth Projection for This Year
Positive Outlook for Macau's Gaming Industry: HSBC Global Research has upgraded its forecast for Macau's GGR growth from 4% to 8% by 2026, driven by strong mainland travel demand and increasing tourist numbers.
SANDS CHINA Rating Upgrade: The broker has raised SANDS CHINA LTD's rating from Hold to Buy, increasing its target price from HKD18.8 to HKD24, anticipating a 33% earnings growth for 2026.
Top Picks in the Market: HSBC has maintained GALAXY ENT and MGM CHINA as top picks, raising GALAXY ENT's target price from HKD43.5 to HKD47 while keeping its Buy rating, and slightly lowering MGM CHINA's target price from HKD17.3 to HKD17.
Earnings Growth Expectations: Despite the positive outlook, JPMorgan expects Macau casinos' 4Q earnings growth to lag behind GGR, leading to downgrades for SJM HOLDINGS and Melco Resorts & Entertainment.
G Sachs Research: January GGR Exceeds Expectations; 1Q GGR Projected to Increase 17% Year-over-Year
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's January Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) grew by 24% year-on-year to MOP22.6 billion, reaching 91% of the 2019 level, driven by a healthy increase in mainland Chinese visitors.
Impact of Events on Gaming Demand: Goldman Sachs believes that the upcoming Winter Olympic Games will not significantly affect gaming demand, while the World Cup may impact monthly revenue by no more than 5%.
SANDS CHINA LTD Financials: Despite reporting lower-than-expected EBITDA in 4Q25 due to one-off expenses and a shift towards lower-margin segments, Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on SANDS CHINA LTD.
Outlook for Other Companies: Goldman Sachs anticipates solid 4Q25 results for GALAXY ENT and MGM CHINA, with expected EBITDA increases of 28% and 8% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, and reiterates Buy ratings for these stocks.
M Stanley Predicts 18% Year-Over-Year Growth in MO 1Q GGR, Prefers GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD
Macau's GGR Performance: In January 2026, Macau's Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) increased by 24% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, reaching MOP22.6 billion, surpassing market expectations according to Morgan Stanley.
February Growth Expectations: The upcoming Lunar New Year holiday is anticipated to boost February's GGR, with a projected year-on-year growth of 22%.
1Q26 GGR Forecast: Morgan Stanley predicts an 18% year-on-year increase in Macau's GGR for the first quarter of 2026, benefiting from a low base in early 2025.
Stock Recommendations: The broker favors stocks such as Galaxy Entertainment, Sands China, and Melco Resorts, all rated Overweight, while MGM China is rated Neutral and SJM Holdings is rated Underweight.
SANDS CHINA LTD Rises Over 4% Despite Market Trends, Following Strong January GGR from MO
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's January Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) reached MOP22.633 billion, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase and surpassing market expectations by about 5%.
Stock Market Reactions: Major gaming companies like Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment saw their stock prices rise, with Sands China up 4.58% and Galaxy Entertainment up 0.95%, despite initial declines.
Market Forecasts: Analysts from Morgan Stanley and CLSA predict continued growth in Macau's GGR, with expectations of an 18% year-over-year increase in the first quarter and potential upside risks to annual growth forecasts.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling statistics for various companies, indicating varying levels of market confidence, with SJM Holdings showing a notably high short selling ratio of 29.649%.
G Sachs Anticipates 4% Growth in MO Gaming Industry/GALAXY ENT EBITDA, Approximately 30% QoQ in 4Q25
Macau Casino Earnings Outlook: Goldman Sachs anticipates that Macau casino stocks will report a 4% QoQ and 13% YoY increase in EBITDA, despite concerns over rising expenses and competition, as investors focus on profit trends.
GALAXY ENT Projections: The report specifically forecasts GALAXY ENT's 4Q25 EBITDA to rise by 28% QoQ to USD550 million, driven by a higher VIP win rate, and maintains a Buy rating on GALAXY ENT, MGM CHINA, and SANDS CHINA LTD due to attractive valuations.
M Stanley Anticipates Minor Margin Compression for Casinos in Q4 2025, Favors GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD
Macau Gaming Industry Forecast: Morgan Stanley has revised its 4Q25 forecast for Macau's gaming industry downward due to a shift towards high VIP business and rising operating expenses, predicting a slight decrease in profit margins.
EBITDA Growth Expectations: The average adjusted property EBITDA for 4Q25 is expected to grow by 4% quarter-over-quarter and 13% year-over-year, aligning with market consensus.
Stock Ratings and Performance: UBS favors GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD, both rated Overweight, while MGM CHINA has been downgraded to Equalweight due to increased royalty fees, despite a potential recovery in market share.
Market Trends: MGM CHINA underperformed in December but may see some recovery in 4Q25, while SJM HOLDINGS is rated Underweight amid ongoing market challenges.
HSBC Research Raises SANDS CHINA LTD Rating to Buy and Increases MO GGR Growth Projection for This Year
Positive Outlook for Macau's Gaming Industry: HSBC Global Research has upgraded its forecast for Macau's GGR growth from 4% to 8% by 2026, driven by strong mainland travel demand and increasing tourist numbers.
SANDS CHINA Rating Upgrade: The broker has raised SANDS CHINA LTD's rating from Hold to Buy, increasing its target price from HKD18.8 to HKD24, anticipating a 33% earnings growth for 2026.
Top Picks in the Market: HSBC has maintained GALAXY ENT and MGM CHINA as top picks, raising GALAXY ENT's target price from HKD43.5 to HKD47 while keeping its Buy rating, and slightly lowering MGM CHINA's target price from HKD17.3 to HKD17.
Earnings Growth Expectations: Despite the positive outlook, JPMorgan expects Macau casinos' 4Q earnings growth to lag behind GGR, leading to downgrades for SJM HOLDINGS and Melco Resorts & Entertainment.
