Trip.com Group Faces SAMR Investigation Under Anti-Monopoly Law, Operations Normal

The analyst rating for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) was maintained as a "Buy" and the target price was raised from USD 76 to USD 83 due to several positive factors. The company reported a year-over-year revenue increase of 15.5% in its 3Q25 total revenue, which was 1% higher than both the broker's and market expectations. Additionally, TRIP.COM-S achieved a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 6.1 billion, exceeding CMBI's expectations by 5%. The significant one-off gain from the sale of MakeMyTrip shares also contributed to a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 19.2 billion, which was substantially above the market expectation of RMB 5.6 billion. These results indicate strong operating leverage and overall better-than-expected financial performance, justifying the positive rating and increased target price.

The analyst rating for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) is based on the company's strong 3Q25 financial performance, which exceeded market expectations with a 16% increase in revenue and a 12% growth in non-GAAP operating profit year-over-year. This growth reflects significant progress in traffic acquisition in both domestic and international markets. Despite potential impacts from recent tensions between China and Japan on outbound business, the overall effect on TRIP.COM-S' revenue is considered relatively limited, as evidenced by the experience of reduced Chinese tourism to Thailand. Consequently, BOCI has reiterated a Buy rating and raised the target price from HKD630 to HKD638.

The analyst rating for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) has been maintained as "Outperform" due to several positive factors highlighted in the CLSA research report. The company's 3Q25 results exceeded expectations, with total revenue and adjusted EBIT increasing by 15.5% and 11.7% year-over-year, respectively. Additionally, significant growth in outbound and international travel businesses—over 20% and 60% year-over-year—was noted, driven by increased popularity of long-distance travel during peak seasons. Furthermore, CLSA raised its 2025 full-year adjusted earnings forecast by 80% to account for strong performance in 4Q25 and the proceeds from the sale of MakeMyTrip shares. Consequently, the target price for TRIP.COM-S was increased from USD 75 to USD 82.