TransAlta Upgraded to Outperform, Stock Rises 6.5%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 24 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Rating Upgrade: National Bank Financial upgraded TransAlta (TAC) from Sector Perform to Outperform with a C$22 price target, anticipating several catalysts that could drive the stock higher.
- Project Value Reevaluation: The analyst noted that the recent 22% pullback in TAC's stock no longer reflects the value of its upcoming US$600M Keephills data center project and Centralia gas conversion, with Alberta power prices expected to recover to the mid-C$70s to mid-C$80s per MWh range.
- EBITDA Growth Outlook: At its investor day, TransAlta outlined a path to double-digit EBITDA growth through 2029, supported by an expected Alberta net load growth of 900-1,300 MW, which could push pool prices to $85-$120/MWh and drive EBITDA to $1.35B-$1.8B.
- Enhanced Financial Flexibility: The anticipated increase in free cash flow and growing debt capacity should further support TransAlta's financial flexibility to pursue a diverse mix of greenfield, brownfield, and accretive M&A opportunities, enhancing its competitive position in the market.
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Analyst Views on TAC
Wall Street analysts forecast TAC stock price to rise
7 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 12.960
Low
12.96
Averages
17.38
High
19.44
Current: 12.960
Low
12.96
Averages
17.38
High
19.44
About TAC
TransAlta Corporation owns, operates, and develops a diverse fleet of electrical power generation assets in Canada, the United States and Australia. It provides municipalities, medium and large industries, businesses, and utility customers with affordable, energy-efficient, and reliable power. Its portfolio includes hydro, wind, solar, battery storage, natural gas, and thermal power. Its segments include Hydro, Wind & Solar, Gas, Energy Transition, Energy Marketing, and Corporate. It has over 88 energy assets in the portfolio. It has a diversified fleet of hydro, wind, solar, natural gas, and cogeneration generates over 9,000 megawatts of electricity. It delivers renewable energy solutions for large-scale commercial partners, including technology companies. It operates a fleet of electrical power generation assets, including Antrim Wind Project, Lakeswind Facility, Old Town Wind Project, White Rock East Project, Mass Solar Project, Fortescue River Gas Pipeline, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
TransAlta Acquires Natural Gas Peaking Facilities
- Acquisition Announcement: TransAlta has announced an agreement to acquire two natural gas peaking facilities, which will further enhance its investment portfolio in renewable energy and is expected to boost the company's generation capacity and market competitiveness.
- Market Expansion: This acquisition will enable TransAlta to provide more power during peak demand periods, addressing the growing energy needs while optimizing its asset allocation to respond to market fluctuations.
- Financial Impact: By acquiring these two facilities, TransAlta is expected to achieve stable cash flows in the coming years, enhancing its financial stability and supporting its long-term growth strategy.
- Strategic Significance: This transaction marks a significant step for TransAlta in the energy transition, demonstrating the company's commitment to achieving sustainability goals through diversified energy sources.
See More
TransAlta Acquires Colorado Gas Facilities for $1B
- Acquisition Overview: TransAlta has agreed to acquire two natural gas-fired peaking facilities totaling 318 MW in Colorado from Blackstone for $1 billion, including the assumption of $750 million in debt, resulting in a 3.8% drop in post-market stock price.
- Financing Strategy: To fund the acquisition, TransAlta plans to raise $250 million in equity through a concurrent common share offering totaling $350 million, which includes a 15% underwriters' over-allotment option, ensuring full financing for the equity component of the deal.
- Asset Revenue Expectations: The acquired facilities are expected to contribute approximately $80 million per year in adjusted EBITDA, with Mountain Peak Power having been operational since September 2025 and Canyon Peak Power expected to achieve commercial operation in Q3 2026, thereby enhancing the company's revenue base.
- Strategic Implications: CEO Joel Hunter stated that this acquisition adds high-quality, low-risk assets in a core market, further solidifying TransAlta's leadership position in the energy transition sector.
See More
TransAlta Acquires 318 MW Natural Gas Peaking Facilities for $1 Billion
- Acquisition Overview: TransAlta has announced a $1 billion acquisition of Mountain Peak Power and Canyon Peak Power, two natural gas peaking facilities with a total capacity of 318 MW, expected to add approximately $80 million in Adjusted EBITDA annually, significantly enhancing the company's financial performance.
- Cash Flow Growth Potential: The acquisition is projected to increase TransAlta's Free Cash Flow by about $33 million per year, with potential upside from availability incentive payments, thereby strengthening the company's competitive position in the Western U.S. market.
- Optimized Financing Structure: The transaction includes the assumption of $750 million in debt and $250 million in equity financing, the latter to be raised through a $350 million bought deal, expected to close on June 9, 2026, ensuring sufficient funding for the acquisition.
- Strategic Market Positioning: This acquisition expands TransAlta's footprint into Colorado, a region anticipated to offer substantial growth opportunities, while enhancing the company's contract duration and market contractedness, thereby improving overall business risk management capabilities.
See More
Analysis of TAC Dividend Expectations and Stock Performance
- Dividend Yield Analysis: TAC's current estimated annualized dividend yield stands at 2.01%, and while dividends are not always predictable, historical data can help assess the likelihood of continued dividends, influencing investor return expectations.
- Price Volatility Range: The 52-week low for TAC is $9.52 per share, with a high of $17.8754, and the latest trade price is $13.89, indicating stability within its price range that may affect investor buying decisions.
- ETF Holding Proportion: According to ETF Channel, TAC comprises 2.04% of the SPDR S&P Kensho Clean Power ETF (CNRG), which is up about 1.1% on the day, suggesting increased market interest in clean energy that could positively impact TAC's stock price.
- Intraday Trading Performance: On Friday, TransAlta Corp shares fell approximately 0.5%, reflecting short-term market sentiment fluctuations, prompting investors to monitor market dynamics for strategic adjustments.
See More
TransAlta Reports Strong Q1 Earnings Amid Leadership Changes
- Earnings Highlights: TransAlta reported Q1 adjusted EPS of C$0.60, significantly up from C$0.10 last year, indicating strong profitability growth despite a challenging pricing environment.
- Revenue and Cash Flow: While Q1 revenue was C$565M, down from C$758M a year ago, free cash flow remained robust at C$102M, demonstrating the company's resilience in cash management.
- Segment Performance: Adjusted EBITDA for hydro, wind, and solar fell to C$35M, C$95M, and C$93M respectively, reflecting market challenges, yet the company maintains its FY26 adjusted EBITDA outlook of C$950M to C$1.05B.
- Leadership Changes: Following Joel Hunter's transition from CFO to President and CEO, Mike Politeski and Grant Arnold were appointed as new CFO and Chief Commercial Officer on May 1 and May 6, 2026, respectively, indicating ongoing strategic adjustments and optimization within the company.
See More
TransAlta Scheduled to Announce Q1 Earnings on May 6
- Earnings Announcement Timing: TransAlta is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings report on May 6 before the market opens, with investors closely monitoring its performance to assess future profitability and market positioning.
- Market Expectations: The consensus EPS estimate for TransAlta stands at -$0.01, indicating a cautious market sentiment regarding the company's current financial health, which may impact investor confidence.
- Historical Performance Data: Historical earnings data for TransAlta will provide investors with crucial insights into the company's performance trends over recent quarters, enabling more informed investment decisions.
- Analyst Call Preparations: The company will also conduct a shareholder/analyst call, with prepared remarks aimed at providing deeper insights into its strategic direction and future outlook, thereby enhancing investor understanding of its operations.
See More
TransAlta Acquires Natural Gas Peaking Facilities
- Acquisition Announcement: TransAlta has announced an agreement to acquire two natural gas peaking facilities, which will further enhance its investment portfolio in renewable energy and is expected to boost the company's generation capacity and market competitiveness.
- Market Expansion: This acquisition will enable TransAlta to provide more power during peak demand periods, addressing the growing energy needs while optimizing its asset allocation to respond to market fluctuations.
- Financial Impact: By acquiring these two facilities, TransAlta is expected to achieve stable cash flows in the coming years, enhancing its financial stability and supporting its long-term growth strategy.
- Strategic Significance: This transaction marks a significant step for TransAlta in the energy transition, demonstrating the company's commitment to achieving sustainability goals through diversified energy sources.
See More
TransAlta Acquires Colorado Gas Facilities for $1B
- Acquisition Overview: TransAlta has agreed to acquire two natural gas-fired peaking facilities totaling 318 MW in Colorado from Blackstone for $1 billion, including the assumption of $750 million in debt, resulting in a 3.8% drop in post-market stock price.
- Financing Strategy: To fund the acquisition, TransAlta plans to raise $250 million in equity through a concurrent common share offering totaling $350 million, which includes a 15% underwriters' over-allotment option, ensuring full financing for the equity component of the deal.
- Asset Revenue Expectations: The acquired facilities are expected to contribute approximately $80 million per year in adjusted EBITDA, with Mountain Peak Power having been operational since September 2025 and Canyon Peak Power expected to achieve commercial operation in Q3 2026, thereby enhancing the company's revenue base.
- Strategic Implications: CEO Joel Hunter stated that this acquisition adds high-quality, low-risk assets in a core market, further solidifying TransAlta's leadership position in the energy transition sector.
See More
TransAlta Acquires 318 MW Natural Gas Peaking Facilities for $1 Billion
- Acquisition Overview: TransAlta has announced a $1 billion acquisition of Mountain Peak Power and Canyon Peak Power, two natural gas peaking facilities with a total capacity of 318 MW, expected to add approximately $80 million in Adjusted EBITDA annually, significantly enhancing the company's financial performance.
- Cash Flow Growth Potential: The acquisition is projected to increase TransAlta's Free Cash Flow by about $33 million per year, with potential upside from availability incentive payments, thereby strengthening the company's competitive position in the Western U.S. market.
- Optimized Financing Structure: The transaction includes the assumption of $750 million in debt and $250 million in equity financing, the latter to be raised through a $350 million bought deal, expected to close on June 9, 2026, ensuring sufficient funding for the acquisition.
- Strategic Market Positioning: This acquisition expands TransAlta's footprint into Colorado, a region anticipated to offer substantial growth opportunities, while enhancing the company's contract duration and market contractedness, thereby improving overall business risk management capabilities.
See More
Analysis of TAC Dividend Expectations and Stock Performance
- Dividend Yield Analysis: TAC's current estimated annualized dividend yield stands at 2.01%, and while dividends are not always predictable, historical data can help assess the likelihood of continued dividends, influencing investor return expectations.
- Price Volatility Range: The 52-week low for TAC is $9.52 per share, with a high of $17.8754, and the latest trade price is $13.89, indicating stability within its price range that may affect investor buying decisions.
- ETF Holding Proportion: According to ETF Channel, TAC comprises 2.04% of the SPDR S&P Kensho Clean Power ETF (CNRG), which is up about 1.1% on the day, suggesting increased market interest in clean energy that could positively impact TAC's stock price.
- Intraday Trading Performance: On Friday, TransAlta Corp shares fell approximately 0.5%, reflecting short-term market sentiment fluctuations, prompting investors to monitor market dynamics for strategic adjustments.
See More
TransAlta Reports Strong Q1 Earnings Amid Leadership Changes
- Earnings Highlights: TransAlta reported Q1 adjusted EPS of C$0.60, significantly up from C$0.10 last year, indicating strong profitability growth despite a challenging pricing environment.
- Revenue and Cash Flow: While Q1 revenue was C$565M, down from C$758M a year ago, free cash flow remained robust at C$102M, demonstrating the company's resilience in cash management.
- Segment Performance: Adjusted EBITDA for hydro, wind, and solar fell to C$35M, C$95M, and C$93M respectively, reflecting market challenges, yet the company maintains its FY26 adjusted EBITDA outlook of C$950M to C$1.05B.
- Leadership Changes: Following Joel Hunter's transition from CFO to President and CEO, Mike Politeski and Grant Arnold were appointed as new CFO and Chief Commercial Officer on May 1 and May 6, 2026, respectively, indicating ongoing strategic adjustments and optimization within the company.
See More
TransAlta Scheduled to Announce Q1 Earnings on May 6
- Earnings Announcement Timing: TransAlta is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings report on May 6 before the market opens, with investors closely monitoring its performance to assess future profitability and market positioning.
- Market Expectations: The consensus EPS estimate for TransAlta stands at -$0.01, indicating a cautious market sentiment regarding the company's current financial health, which may impact investor confidence.
- Historical Performance Data: Historical earnings data for TransAlta will provide investors with crucial insights into the company's performance trends over recent quarters, enabling more informed investment decisions.
- Analyst Call Preparations: The company will also conduct a shareholder/analyst call, with prepared remarks aimed at providing deeper insights into its strategic direction and future outlook, thereby enhancing investor understanding of its operations.
See More
