The Argument for a Housing Market Recovery in 2026

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

LEN-2.79%

KBH-2.08%

HOV-2.26%

Source: Barron's

Updated: Dec 12 2025

0mins

Source: Barron's

Investor Sentiment: Investors have shown a lack of interest in the housing market this year, indicating a shift in priorities or concerns.
Future Outlook: There is potential for a change in the housing market dynamics by 2026, suggesting a possible resurgence in investor interest.

LEN

$114.71+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on LEN

Wall Street analysts forecast LEN stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LEN is 101.18 USD with a low forecast of 80.00 USD and a high forecast of 122.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

13 Analyst Rating

0 Buy

7 Hold

6 Sell

Moderate Sell

Current: 118.000

Low

80.00

Averages

101.18

High

122.00

Current: 118.000

Low

80.00

Averages

101.18

High

122.00

RBC Capital

Underperform

downgrade

$95 -> $88

2026-01-09

Reason

RBC Capital

Price Target

$95 -> $88

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

downgrade

Underperform

Reason

RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Lennar to $88 from $95 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. Goldman remains cautious into early 2026, with housing affordability still challenging and R&R potentially inflecting later in the year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Nonresidential markets are mixed, key risks include policy changes, rates, and tariffs, and the sector is expected to remain volatile, with homebuilders the most cautious, distribution favored, and building products OEMs offering relatively attractive valuations.

RBC Capital

Underperform

downgrade

$95 -> $88

2026-01-09

Reason

RBC Capital

Price Target

$95 -> $88

2026-01-09

downgrade

Underperform

Reason

RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Lennar to $88 from $95 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. RBC Capital remains cautious into early 2026, with housing affordability still challenging and R&R potentially inflecting later in the year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Nonresidential markets are mixed, key risks include policy changes, rates, and tariffs, and the sector is expected to remain volatile, with homebuilders the most cautious, distribution favored, and building products OEMs offering relatively attractive valuations.

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Citi

Neutral -> Hold

downgrade

$133 -> $113

2026-01-08

Reason

Citi

Price Target

$133 -> $113

2026-01-08

downgrade

Neutral -> Hold

Reason

Citi lowered the firm's price target on Lennar to $113 from $133 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated estimates and targets in the homebuilding and building products group as part of its 2026 outlook. Citi continues to prefer heavy construction materials with exposure to infrastructure over the residential exposed names.

Citizens

Outperform -> Market Perform

downgrade

$NULL

2026-01-07

Reason

Citizens

Price Target

$NULL

2026-01-07

downgrade

Outperform -> Market Perform

Reason

Citizens downgraded Lennar to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target. The firm believes Lennar has at least two more quarters of inventory clearance activity that may result in gross margins, sales volumes, and earnings below consensus estimates. In addition, the company's management changes may be a near-term risk, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

About LEN

Lennar Corporation is a homebuilder and an originator of residential and commercial mortgage loans. The Company is also a provider of title insurance and closing services, and a developer of multifamily rental properties. The Company's segments include Homebuilding East, Homebuilding Central, Homebuilding Texas, Homebuilding West, Financial Services, Multifamily, and Lennar others. Its Homebuilding segments primarily include the construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes, as well as the purchase, development and sale of residential land directly and through its unconsolidated entities. The Company's Financial Services segment primarily provides mortgage financing, title and closing services primarily for buyers of its homes, as well as property and casualty insurance. The Company’s Multifamily segment is involved in the development, construction and property management of multifamily rental properties. its Lennar Other segment includes fund investments.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.