Tesla Transitions: Phasing Out Flagship Models
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 01 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TSLA?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Flagship Model Phase-Out: Tesla will cease production of the Model S and Model X next quarter, with CEO Elon Musk referring to this as an 'honorable discharge,' indicating a strategic shift away from reliance on premium EV sales.
- Focus on Humanoid Robots: Musk announced that Tesla's future will center on the Optimus humanoid robot, aiming for an ambitious production target of 1 million units annually, despite market skepticism predicting only a 5% chance of release by June 30.
- Revenue Decline Risks: Tesla's revenue has dropped 3% this year, marking its first annual decline in history amid fierce competition from Chinese EV makers, raising concerns about the viability of replacing automotive revenue with Optimus sales.
- Investor Confidence Wavers: With prediction markets showing a grim outlook for Optimus, if these forecasts hold true, Tesla may face a period of maximum uncertainty, prompting investors to reconsider their exposure to Musk's ability to defy expectations.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy TSLA?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to rise
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 381.260
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 381.260
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Tesla Q1 Deliveries Fall Short of Expectations
- Delivery Analysis: Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1, falling short of the consensus estimate of 365,000, although this represents a 6.2% increase from 336,881 vehicles delivered in Q1 2025, indicating some growth potential amid market challenges.
- Production and Deliveries: During the same quarter, Tesla produced 408,386 vehicles, with Model 3/Y deliveries at 341,893 and other models at 16,130, highlighting sustained demand for core models, but the overall shortfall may impact investor confidence.
- Future Outlook: Analysts project Tesla's deliveries to reach 1.69 million in 2026, 1.88 million in 2027, and 2.13 million in 2028, with expectations of surpassing 3 million vehicles by 2030, which could attract investor interest given the long-term growth outlook.
- Market Reaction: Tesla's shares fell 3.3% in premarket trading and are down over 15% in 2026, reflecting market disappointment with the delivery figures, while its market cap stands at $1.39 trillion, indicating cautious sentiment regarding its future performance.
See More
Tesla Faces Continued Weakness in U.S. Demand as Q1 Approaches
- Declining U.S. Registrations: In Q1 2023, Tesla's U.S. vehicle registrations totaled 119,900, reflecting a 12.5% year-over-year decline, indicating persistent weakness in domestic demand that could adversely affect future delivery performance.
- Weak Delivery Expectations: Wall Street anticipates Tesla will report approximately 365,645 global deliveries in Q1, while independent researcher Troy Teslike projects around 375,000 vehicles, both figures falling short of last year's 336,681 deliveries, highlighting diminishing market confidence in Tesla.
- Sales Continue to Drop: Tesla sold 41,300 vehicles in March, down 7.9% year-over-year, although slightly above February's 38,500 units, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines, which underscores ongoing demand challenges in the market.
- Bearish Market Sentiment: According to Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Tesla has remained in the 'bearish' territory over the past week, with investors expressing low expectations for Q1 deliveries, contributing to a 15% decline in TSLA stock year-to-date.
See More
SpaceX Achieves Rocket Recovery, IPO on the Horizon
- Rocket Recovery Milestone: In October 2024, SpaceX successfully landed a previously launched rocket, marking a historic first that signifies a major breakthrough in aerospace technology, likely attracting increased investor interest in the space sector.
- Massive IPO Potential: SpaceX is projected to reach a valuation of $1.75 trillion, and if it goes public, it would become the largest IPO in market history, expected to have a profound impact on space-related stocks, similar to Tesla's influence on the electric vehicle market.
- Stock Price Surge: Following the news of SpaceX's impending IPO, stocks of companies like AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, and Firefly Aerospace surged by 12%, 11.78%, and nearly 20% respectively, reflecting growing market confidence in the space economy.
- Reduced Launch Costs: SpaceX's reusable rocket technology is set to significantly lower launch costs, with traditional launches costing up to $1.5 billion compared to SpaceX's average of $62 million, and further reductions are anticipated, promoting sustainable growth in the aerospace industry.
See More
SpaceX IPO Set to Transform Space Economy
- IPO Buzz Ignites Market: SpaceX's impending IPO could value the company at $1.75 trillion, making it the largest IPO in market history, which is expected to instill confidence in space stocks similarly to how Tesla transformed the EV market.
- Space Stocks Surge: Following the IPO news, shares of AST SpaceMobile rose by 12%, Rocket Lab by 11.78%, and Firefly Aerospace by nearly 20%, reflecting a growing optimism and investment enthusiasm in the space sector.
- Significant Cost Reductions: SpaceX's reusable rocket technology has dramatically cut launch costs from approximately $2.1 billion for the Space Shuttle to around $62 million, with expectations for further reductions, enhancing the economic viability of space travel.
- Investment Opportunities in Smaller Firms: As SpaceX's IPO approaches, interest in smaller space companies is rising, encouraging investors to consider these firms ahead of the IPO to capitalize on the anticipated growth in the space economy.
See More
Ford Credit's Profit-Driving Potential
- Profit Source: Ford Credit, while generating only about 5% of the company's revenue annually, contributes 15% to 20% of profits, with last year's earnings before taxes reaching $2.6 billion and returning $1.7 billion in cash to Ford, supporting growth in electric vehicles and other initiatives.
- Leasing Risks: Ford Credit finances customer sales and leases, and is projected to face significant risks from off-lease EVs with residual values lower than expected, potentially crippling profitability, especially with nearly 800,000 EVs expected to come off lease by 2028.
- Market Dynamics: By the end of 2026, EVs are expected to make up 15% of off-lease used vehicles, up from just 7.7% in Q1 2023, indicating rapid changes in the EV market and its potential impact on Ford Credit.
- Industry Loss Estimates: Experts predict that the resale value of off-lease EVs will be around $10,000 less than projected, leading to an estimated industry-wide loss of about $8 billion in 2028, posing challenges for Ford and its competitors Tesla and General Motors.
See More
Ford Credit Faces EV Residual Value Crisis
- Profitability Overview: Ford Credit has recorded only one annual loss in the past two decades, in 2008, and while it typically generates about 5% of the company's revenue, it contributes 15% to 20% of profits, highlighting its significance as a profit engine.
- EV Residual Value Risk: With nearly 800,000 EVs expected to flood the market by 2028, industry experts predict these vehicles will resell for about $10,000 less than projected, potentially leading to an industry-wide loss of approximately $8 billion, posing significant financial pressure on Ford Credit.
- Leasing Market Dynamics: Ford's performance in the EV leasing market is relatively weak, with only 52,000 EV leases last year compared to 228,000 for Tesla and 102,000 for General Motors, which may impact Ford's future profitability due to market share disparities.
- Investor Watchpoint: Although the current situation is less severe than the 2008 crisis, the residual value issues of EVs warrant close attention from investors, as they could unexpectedly affect Ford's financial health in the coming years.
See More
Tesla Q1 Deliveries Fall Short of Expectations
- Delivery Analysis: Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1, falling short of the consensus estimate of 365,000, although this represents a 6.2% increase from 336,881 vehicles delivered in Q1 2025, indicating some growth potential amid market challenges.
- Production and Deliveries: During the same quarter, Tesla produced 408,386 vehicles, with Model 3/Y deliveries at 341,893 and other models at 16,130, highlighting sustained demand for core models, but the overall shortfall may impact investor confidence.
- Future Outlook: Analysts project Tesla's deliveries to reach 1.69 million in 2026, 1.88 million in 2027, and 2.13 million in 2028, with expectations of surpassing 3 million vehicles by 2030, which could attract investor interest given the long-term growth outlook.
- Market Reaction: Tesla's shares fell 3.3% in premarket trading and are down over 15% in 2026, reflecting market disappointment with the delivery figures, while its market cap stands at $1.39 trillion, indicating cautious sentiment regarding its future performance.
See More
Tesla Faces Continued Weakness in U.S. Demand as Q1 Approaches
- Declining U.S. Registrations: In Q1 2023, Tesla's U.S. vehicle registrations totaled 119,900, reflecting a 12.5% year-over-year decline, indicating persistent weakness in domestic demand that could adversely affect future delivery performance.
- Weak Delivery Expectations: Wall Street anticipates Tesla will report approximately 365,645 global deliveries in Q1, while independent researcher Troy Teslike projects around 375,000 vehicles, both figures falling short of last year's 336,681 deliveries, highlighting diminishing market confidence in Tesla.
- Sales Continue to Drop: Tesla sold 41,300 vehicles in March, down 7.9% year-over-year, although slightly above February's 38,500 units, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines, which underscores ongoing demand challenges in the market.
- Bearish Market Sentiment: According to Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Tesla has remained in the 'bearish' territory over the past week, with investors expressing low expectations for Q1 deliveries, contributing to a 15% decline in TSLA stock year-to-date.
See More
SpaceX Achieves Rocket Recovery, IPO on the Horizon
- Rocket Recovery Milestone: In October 2024, SpaceX successfully landed a previously launched rocket, marking a historic first that signifies a major breakthrough in aerospace technology, likely attracting increased investor interest in the space sector.
- Massive IPO Potential: SpaceX is projected to reach a valuation of $1.75 trillion, and if it goes public, it would become the largest IPO in market history, expected to have a profound impact on space-related stocks, similar to Tesla's influence on the electric vehicle market.
- Stock Price Surge: Following the news of SpaceX's impending IPO, stocks of companies like AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, and Firefly Aerospace surged by 12%, 11.78%, and nearly 20% respectively, reflecting growing market confidence in the space economy.
- Reduced Launch Costs: SpaceX's reusable rocket technology is set to significantly lower launch costs, with traditional launches costing up to $1.5 billion compared to SpaceX's average of $62 million, and further reductions are anticipated, promoting sustainable growth in the aerospace industry.
See More
SpaceX IPO Set to Transform Space Economy
- IPO Buzz Ignites Market: SpaceX's impending IPO could value the company at $1.75 trillion, making it the largest IPO in market history, which is expected to instill confidence in space stocks similarly to how Tesla transformed the EV market.
- Space Stocks Surge: Following the IPO news, shares of AST SpaceMobile rose by 12%, Rocket Lab by 11.78%, and Firefly Aerospace by nearly 20%, reflecting a growing optimism and investment enthusiasm in the space sector.
- Significant Cost Reductions: SpaceX's reusable rocket technology has dramatically cut launch costs from approximately $2.1 billion for the Space Shuttle to around $62 million, with expectations for further reductions, enhancing the economic viability of space travel.
- Investment Opportunities in Smaller Firms: As SpaceX's IPO approaches, interest in smaller space companies is rising, encouraging investors to consider these firms ahead of the IPO to capitalize on the anticipated growth in the space economy.
See More
Ford Credit's Profit-Driving Potential
- Profit Source: Ford Credit, while generating only about 5% of the company's revenue annually, contributes 15% to 20% of profits, with last year's earnings before taxes reaching $2.6 billion and returning $1.7 billion in cash to Ford, supporting growth in electric vehicles and other initiatives.
- Leasing Risks: Ford Credit finances customer sales and leases, and is projected to face significant risks from off-lease EVs with residual values lower than expected, potentially crippling profitability, especially with nearly 800,000 EVs expected to come off lease by 2028.
- Market Dynamics: By the end of 2026, EVs are expected to make up 15% of off-lease used vehicles, up from just 7.7% in Q1 2023, indicating rapid changes in the EV market and its potential impact on Ford Credit.
- Industry Loss Estimates: Experts predict that the resale value of off-lease EVs will be around $10,000 less than projected, leading to an estimated industry-wide loss of about $8 billion in 2028, posing challenges for Ford and its competitors Tesla and General Motors.
See More
Ford Credit Faces EV Residual Value Crisis
- Profitability Overview: Ford Credit has recorded only one annual loss in the past two decades, in 2008, and while it typically generates about 5% of the company's revenue, it contributes 15% to 20% of profits, highlighting its significance as a profit engine.
- EV Residual Value Risk: With nearly 800,000 EVs expected to flood the market by 2028, industry experts predict these vehicles will resell for about $10,000 less than projected, potentially leading to an industry-wide loss of approximately $8 billion, posing significant financial pressure on Ford Credit.
- Leasing Market Dynamics: Ford's performance in the EV leasing market is relatively weak, with only 52,000 EV leases last year compared to 228,000 for Tesla and 102,000 for General Motors, which may impact Ford's future profitability due to market share disparities.
- Investor Watchpoint: Although the current situation is less severe than the 2008 crisis, the residual value issues of EVs warrant close attention from investors, as they could unexpectedly affect Ford's financial health in the coming years.
See More
