Sunoco Looks Attractive: Analyst Cites Pullback, Upcoming Guidance As Catalysts
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 07 2024
0mins
Should l Buy SUN?
Source: Business Insider
- Upgrade of Sunoco LP: Stifel analyst upgraded Sunoco LP to Buy from Hold with a price target of $62.00.
- Attractive Re-entry Point: Sunoco's unit price dropped by 13% since mid-February, making it an attractive re-entry point according to the analyst.
- Anticipated Guidance Impact: Management's upcoming guidance around second-quarter FY24 earnings could boost the unit price.
- 2024 Outlook Update: The guidance is expected to provide an update on the 2024 outlook for Sunoco's legacy business, NuStar assets, and potential synergies.
- Financial Estimates and Investment Opportunities: Akyol estimates EBITDA for FY24 and FY25, and investors can access the stock through InfraCap MLP ETF and Global X MLP ETF.
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Analyst Views on SUN
Wall Street analysts forecast SUN stock price to fall
6 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 66.910
Low
57.00
Averages
63.67
High
70.00
Current: 66.910
Low
57.00
Averages
63.67
High
70.00
About SUN
Sunoco LP is an energy infrastructure and fuel distribution master limited partnership operating across 32 countries and territories in North America, the Greater Caribbean, and Europe. Its midstream operations include a network of approximately 14,000 miles of pipeline and over 160 terminals. Its Fuel Distribution segment supplies motor fuel to independently operated dealer stations, distributors, commission agents and other consumers. Its Pipeline Systems segment includes an integrated pipeline and terminal network comprised of refined products, crude oil and ammonia pipelines and terminals. Through its Terminals segment, it operates four transmix processing facilities and 83 terminals. Its terminals provide storage and distribution services to support our fuel distribution business and other third-party customers. Its Refinery segment is composed of the Burnaby Refinery, which is responsible for the refining of fuel products and engaged in renewable business activities.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Significant Earnings Growth: Energy Transfer generated over $4.9 billion in adjusted EBITDA in Q1, marking a 20% year-over-year increase, which highlights the company's enhanced profitability under strong market conditions and boosts investor confidence.
- Robust Cash Flow: The company reported $2.7 billion in distributable cash flow for the first quarter, a 17% increase year-over-year, which not only covered nearly $1.2 billion in distributions to investors but also provided ample funding for future expansion initiatives.
- Favorable Market Conditions: The ongoing supply disruptions due to the war in the Middle East have benefited Energy Transfer, leading to record U.S. hydrocarbon exports and significant increases in natural gas liquids and crude oil transportation volumes, which rose by 19% and 8%, respectively, further solidifying its market position.
- Optimistic Outlook: The company raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $18.2 billion and $18.6 billion, up from the previous forecast of $17.45 billion to $17.85 billion, reflecting strong confidence in future growth and ongoing expansion plans.
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- Strong Adjusted EBITDA: In Q1 2026, Sunoco LP reported adjusted EBITDA of $867 million, excluding approximately $9 million in one-time transaction expenses, demonstrating robust financial performance that is expected to further bolster investor confidence.
- European Expansion Achievement: The completion of the TanQuid acquisition on January 16 positions Sunoco as Germany's largest independent terminal operator with a network of 16 assets, marking continued growth in the European market and anticipated increases in market share and competitiveness.
- Distribution Growth Target: The company declared a distribution of $0.9899 per unit, with a trailing 12-month coverage ratio of 1.9x, aiming for at least a 5% multi-year distribution growth rate, reflecting confidence in future cash flows and a stable financial strategy.
- Acquisition Plan Progress: Management indicated plans to complete over $500 million in bolt-on acquisitions in 2026, with these acquisitions expected to be immediately accretive while maintaining leverage around the long-term target of 4x, showcasing a positive outlook for future growth.
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- Financial Overview: In Q1 2026, Energy Transfer LP reported net income of $1.25 billion, a slight decrease from $1.32 billion in Q1 2025, indicating competitive pressures, while net income per unit stood at $0.35, reflecting stable profitability.
- Adjusted EBITDA Growth: Adjusted EBITDA reached $4.94 billion, a 20% increase from $4.10 billion in Q1 2025, demonstrating significant progress in cost control and operational efficiency, thereby enhancing future investment capacity.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company expects to invest between $5.5 billion and $5.9 billion in growth capital for 2026, with $1.53 billion spent in Q1, showcasing confidence in future expansion, particularly in natural gas and LNG sectors.
- Operational Data Highlights: In Q1, NGL and refined product transportation volumes increased by 19%, setting a new record, indicating the company's successful enhancement of transport capacity amid rising market demand, further solidifying its leadership position in the energy market.
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- Strong Performance: Sunoco LP reported a Q1 GAAP EPS of $2.85, beating expectations by $1.13, indicating a significant improvement in profitability and reflecting the company's robust market performance.
- Revenue Surge: The company achieved revenues of $10.69 billion in Q1, a 106.4% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $500 million, which underscores strong sales growth and market share expansion, further solidifying its market position.
- Adjusted EBITDA: The adjusted EBITDA stood at $867 million, excluding one-time transaction-related expenses, showcasing the company's success in operational efficiency and cost control, thereby enhancing its financial health.
- Dividend Increase: Sunoco raised its quarterly distribution by 6.25%, with the Q1 2026 distribution representing over a 10% increase compared to Q1 2025, which not only boosts investor confidence but also reflects the company's optimistic outlook on future cash flows.
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- Earnings Announcement: Sunoco LP is set to announce its Q1 2023 earnings on May 5 before market open, with consensus EPS estimated at $0.25 and revenue expected to reach $10.19 billion, indicating significant market interest in the company's performance.
- Performance Expectations: Over the past year, Sunoco LP has exceeded EPS estimates 50% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, reflecting the company's relative stability in managing market expectations.
- Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates saw one upward revision with no downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced one downward revision, suggesting fluctuating market confidence in the company's future revenue.
- Financing Strategy: Sunoco LP plans to issue $1.2 billion in senior notes maturing in 2031 and 2034, aimed at strengthening the company's capital structure and supporting future growth strategies.
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India's Sun Pharma Chair: The chair of Sun Pharmaceutical Industries has announced a deal with Organo, which presents new opportunities for product launches.
Geographic Expansion: This partnership allows Sun Pharma to explore product launches in geographic areas where it currently has no presence.
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