SPS Commerce Shares Drop 21% Following Q3 Results and Weak Outlook
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 31 2025
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Source: NASDAQ.COM
Stock Performance: SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) shares fell 21.58% to $81.47 after disappointing third-quarter 2025 financial results, despite achieving its 98th consecutive quarter of revenue growth.
Future Outlook: The company warned of moderated growth ahead and provided guidance below expectations, citing macro-economic challenges and slowing retail supply-chain activity as significant risks.
Revenue Composition: Approximately 96% of SPSC's total revenue is recurring, indicating a stable revenue base, but management emphasized the need for cautious execution and tighter cost control moving forward.
Trading Activity: The stock opened at $107.20, reached a high of $110.50, and a low of $80.75, with trading volume significantly increasing to over 3.1 million shares, surpassing the three-month average of 0.9 million.
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Analyst Views on SPSC
Wall Street analysts forecast SPSC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SPSC is 99.13 USD with a low forecast of 80.00 USD and a high forecast of 110.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 88.950
Low
80.00
Averages
99.13
High
110.00
Current: 88.950
Low
80.00
Averages
99.13
High
110.00
About SPSC
SPS Commerce, Inc. is a provider of retail supply chain cloud services, connecting trading partners around the globe to optimize supply chain operations for all retail partners. The Company supports data-driven partnerships with innovative cloud technology and customer-obsessed service that focuses on retail, grocery, distribution, supply, manufacturing, and logistics firms. The Company's products include Fulfillment, Analytics, and Other products. Fulfillment products offer a comprehensive solution designed to streamline supply chain operations. The Analytics products simplifies managing sell-through data from our customers business partners by handling data acquisition, cleansing, normalization, and delivery. Its Other products offer complementary products, such as assortment and community. In addition to these offerings, it also provides one-time services such as professional services and testing and certification.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Activist Investor Pushes for Sale of SPS Commerce
- Investor Engagement: Activist investor Irenic Capital Management has taken a stake in SPS Commerce (SPSC) and is urging the supply chain software maker to explore sale options, indicating a strong interest in the company's future direction.
- Management Interaction: According to a Bloomberg report, Irenic has engaged with SPS Commerce's board and management, suggesting a desire to drive strategic changes through proactive dialogue to enhance shareholder value.
- Stock Price Volatility: SPS Commerce shares fell 2% on Thursday, with a total decline of over 50% in the past year, reflecting market concerns about the company's current operational status and the context of activist involvement.
- Competitive Pressure: Prior to Irenic's involvement, another activist investor, Anson Funds Management, disclosed its stake in SPS and called for the ousting of the CEO, further intensifying pressure on the company's governance and strategic direction.
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TRAN Capital Management Fully Divests SPS Commerce Stake for $15.37 Million
- Complete Divestiture: TRAN Capital Management sold its entire stake of 147,591 shares in SPS Commerce during Q4 2026, with a transaction value of $15.37 million, indicating a potential loss of confidence in the stock's future performance, which may affect market perception.
- Position Change: The divestiture resulted in a net position change of $15.37 million for TRAN, reflecting a reassessment of market prospects, particularly as SPS's stock has fallen over 50% from its peak, suggesting caution among investors.
- Top Holdings Analysis: Following the sale of SPS, TRAN's top holdings include Nvidia ($60.95 million), Talen Energy ($59.99 million), and Amazon ($59.51 million), indicating a strategic shift towards technology and energy sectors, likely in pursuit of more stable returns.
- Market Performance: As of January 21, 2026, SPS Commerce shares were priced at $91.13, down 53% year-over-year, facing pressure in the competitive supply chain management sector, prompting investors to closely monitor its future sales growth and strategic direction.
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