Shell Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations Amid Buyback and Dividend Increase
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy SHEL?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Decline: Shell (SHEL) reported a Q4 adjusted net income of $3.26 billion, an 11% year-over-year drop that fell short of the $3.5 billion analyst consensus, indicating that a 2% production increase was insufficient to enhance profitability, potentially raising scrutiny on CEO Wael Sawan.
- Shareholder Returns: Despite disappointing earnings, Shell maintained its $3.5 billion quarterly buyback program and raised its dividend by 4% to $0.372 per share, resulting in shareholder payouts totaling 52% of operating cash flow over the last four quarters, exceeding the company's target range of 40%-50%.
- Rising Operating Costs: Analysts expressed concerns over Shell's increasing operating expenses, suggesting that the sustainability of the buyback program could be jeopardized without improved financial performance, which may impact investor confidence moving forward.
- Declining Reserve Life: Shell's reserve life decreased from 8.9 years in 2024 to 7.8 years, primarily due to asset sales in Nigeria and oil sands, leading analysts to anticipate increased scrutiny regarding Shell's M&A reserve replacement strategy.
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Analyst Views on SHEL
Wall Street analysts forecast SHEL stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SHEL is 74.27 USD with a low forecast of 41.75 USD and a high forecast of 91.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 78.790
Low
41.75
Averages
74.27
High
91.00
Current: 78.790
Low
41.75
Averages
74.27
High
91.00
About SHEL
Shell plc is an international energy company engaged in the principal aspects of the energy and petrochemical industries. The Company's segments include Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, Renewables and Energy Solutions, and Corporate. The Integrated Gas segment includes liquefied natural gas (LNG), conversion of natural gas into gas-to-liquids (GTL) fuels and other products. It includes natural gas and liquids exploration and extraction, and the operation of the upstream and midstream infrastructure. The Upstream segment includes exploration and extraction of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. It also markets and transports oil and gas and operates the infrastructure necessary to deliver them to the market. The Marketing segment comprises the Mobility, Lubricants, and Sectors & Decarbonization businesses. The Chemicals and Products segment includes chemicals manufacturing plants with their own marketing network, and refineries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Shell Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations Amid Buyback and Dividend Increase
- Earnings Decline: Shell (SHEL) reported a Q4 adjusted net income of $3.26 billion, an 11% year-over-year drop that fell short of the $3.5 billion analyst consensus, indicating that a 2% production increase was insufficient to enhance profitability, potentially raising scrutiny on CEO Wael Sawan.
- Shareholder Returns: Despite disappointing earnings, Shell maintained its $3.5 billion quarterly buyback program and raised its dividend by 4% to $0.372 per share, resulting in shareholder payouts totaling 52% of operating cash flow over the last four quarters, exceeding the company's target range of 40%-50%.
- Rising Operating Costs: Analysts expressed concerns over Shell's increasing operating expenses, suggesting that the sustainability of the buyback program could be jeopardized without improved financial performance, which may impact investor confidence moving forward.
- Declining Reserve Life: Shell's reserve life decreased from 8.9 years in 2024 to 7.8 years, primarily due to asset sales in Nigeria and oil sands, leading analysts to anticipate increased scrutiny regarding Shell's M&A reserve replacement strategy.
See More
U.S. Stock Futures Fluctuate Amid Tech Stock Rotation
- Market Volatility: U.S. stock futures fluctuated between gains and losses on Thursday, with the S&P 500 dipping 0.01% and the Dow Jones falling 0.23%, reflecting market caution ahead of upcoming corporate earnings reports.
- Earnings Focus: Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is set to report earnings after the bell, with analysts expecting $1.97 per share on revenue of $211.32 billion, which could significantly influence market sentiment depending on the results.
- Jobless Claims Insight: The latest weekly jobless claims report will be released on Thursday morning, and market participants will closely monitor this data to assess the durability of the U.S. labor market, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
- Bond Yield Trends: The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.27%, while the two-year bond stood at 3.55%, indicating market expectations regarding interest rate policies, with the CME Group's FedWatch tool showing a 90.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in March.
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Shell Reports Weak Q4 2025 Earnings Amid Lower Crude Prices
- Weak Earnings Report: Shell's adjusted earnings for Q4 2025 came in at $1.14 per ADS, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.63, yet the overall profit marked the lowest in nearly five years, reflecting pressures from lower crude prices and unfavorable tax adjustments.
- Revenue and Cash Flow: The company's revenue stood at $64.09 billion, falling short of analysts' forecast of $64.61 billion, although operational cash flow reached $9.4 billion, the overall profitability was impacted by declining marketing margins and rising operating costs.
- Shareholder Return Plan: Shell announced a $3.5 billion share buyback program and increased its dividend by 4% to 37.2 cents per share, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns despite financial pressures.
- Future Outlook: Shell expects Integrated Gas production to range between 920,000 to 980,000 boe/d in Q1 2026, and despite market challenges, management remains optimistic about future capital expenditures and operational performance.
See More
Shell Declares $0.744 Per ADS Dividend Amid Missed Earnings Estimates
- Dividend Declaration: Shell has declared a dividend of $0.744 per ADS, a move aimed at maintaining investor confidence and providing stable cash flow despite facing market pressures and missing earnings expectations.
- Earnings Miss: The company's financial report indicates that both revenue and profit fell short of market expectations, reflecting uncertainties in the global energy market and challenges in cost control, which could impact future investment decisions.
- Outlook Initiation: Shell has initiated its outlook for Q1 and FY26, and while current performance is disappointing, the company aims to improve future financial results through strategic adjustments and market adaptability.
- Green Hydrogen Projects: Shell's green hydrogen initiatives in the EU are viewed as another failing investment, as ongoing expenditures raise questions about the feasibility and profitability of these projects, potentially affecting its strategic positioning in the renewable energy sector.
See More
Shell Declares Quarterly Dividend and $3.5B Buyback Program
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: Shell declares a quarterly dividend of $0.372 per share, with ADS holders receiving $0.744 per ADS, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to stable cash flow and shareholder returns.
- Dividend Payment Schedule: The dividend for ordinary shareholders will be payable on March 30, with a record date of February 20 and an ex-dividend date of February 19, ensuring timely returns for investors and bolstering confidence in the stock.
- Share Buyback Program: Shell initiates a $3.5 billion share buyback program expected to be completed within three months, aimed at enhancing earnings per share and rewarding shareholders, indicating the company's confidence in its future financial health.
- Future Outlook: The buyback program is set to conclude before the company's Q1 2026 results announcement, signaling Shell's positive outlook on future performance while providing additional returns to shareholders.
See More
Shell Reports Significant Q4 Profit Increase Amid Revenue Decline
- Significant Profit Growth: Shell's pre-tax income for Q4 reached $6.898 billion, a substantial increase from last year's $4.205 billion, indicating strong profitability despite a slight revenue decline.
- Earnings Per Share Surge: Net income attributable to shareholders skyrocketed from $928 million ($0.15 per share) last year to $4.134 billion ($0.71 per share), reflecting successful strategies in cost control and market demand.
- Share Buyback Initiative: Shell announced a $3.5 billion share buyback program expected to be completed before the Q1 2026 results, aimed at enhancing shareholder returns and boosting market confidence.
- Future Production Outlook: The company projects Q1 Integrated Gas production to be approximately 920,000 to 980,000 boe/d, with LNG liquefaction volumes expected to be around 7.4 to 8.0 million tonnes, indicating ongoing growth potential in future markets.
See More
Shell Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations Amid Buyback and Dividend Increase
- Earnings Decline: Shell (SHEL) reported a Q4 adjusted net income of $3.26 billion, an 11% year-over-year drop that fell short of the $3.5 billion analyst consensus, indicating that a 2% production increase was insufficient to enhance profitability, potentially raising scrutiny on CEO Wael Sawan.
- Shareholder Returns: Despite disappointing earnings, Shell maintained its $3.5 billion quarterly buyback program and raised its dividend by 4% to $0.372 per share, resulting in shareholder payouts totaling 52% of operating cash flow over the last four quarters, exceeding the company's target range of 40%-50%.
- Rising Operating Costs: Analysts expressed concerns over Shell's increasing operating expenses, suggesting that the sustainability of the buyback program could be jeopardized without improved financial performance, which may impact investor confidence moving forward.
- Declining Reserve Life: Shell's reserve life decreased from 8.9 years in 2024 to 7.8 years, primarily due to asset sales in Nigeria and oil sands, leading analysts to anticipate increased scrutiny regarding Shell's M&A reserve replacement strategy.
See More
U.S. Stock Futures Fluctuate Amid Tech Stock Rotation
- Market Volatility: U.S. stock futures fluctuated between gains and losses on Thursday, with the S&P 500 dipping 0.01% and the Dow Jones falling 0.23%, reflecting market caution ahead of upcoming corporate earnings reports.
- Earnings Focus: Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is set to report earnings after the bell, with analysts expecting $1.97 per share on revenue of $211.32 billion, which could significantly influence market sentiment depending on the results.
- Jobless Claims Insight: The latest weekly jobless claims report will be released on Thursday morning, and market participants will closely monitor this data to assess the durability of the U.S. labor market, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
- Bond Yield Trends: The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.27%, while the two-year bond stood at 3.55%, indicating market expectations regarding interest rate policies, with the CME Group's FedWatch tool showing a 90.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in March.
See More
Shell Reports Weak Q4 2025 Earnings Amid Lower Crude Prices
- Weak Earnings Report: Shell's adjusted earnings for Q4 2025 came in at $1.14 per ADS, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.63, yet the overall profit marked the lowest in nearly five years, reflecting pressures from lower crude prices and unfavorable tax adjustments.
- Revenue and Cash Flow: The company's revenue stood at $64.09 billion, falling short of analysts' forecast of $64.61 billion, although operational cash flow reached $9.4 billion, the overall profitability was impacted by declining marketing margins and rising operating costs.
- Shareholder Return Plan: Shell announced a $3.5 billion share buyback program and increased its dividend by 4% to 37.2 cents per share, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns despite financial pressures.
- Future Outlook: Shell expects Integrated Gas production to range between 920,000 to 980,000 boe/d in Q1 2026, and despite market challenges, management remains optimistic about future capital expenditures and operational performance.
See More
Shell Declares $0.744 Per ADS Dividend Amid Missed Earnings Estimates
- Dividend Declaration: Shell has declared a dividend of $0.744 per ADS, a move aimed at maintaining investor confidence and providing stable cash flow despite facing market pressures and missing earnings expectations.
- Earnings Miss: The company's financial report indicates that both revenue and profit fell short of market expectations, reflecting uncertainties in the global energy market and challenges in cost control, which could impact future investment decisions.
- Outlook Initiation: Shell has initiated its outlook for Q1 and FY26, and while current performance is disappointing, the company aims to improve future financial results through strategic adjustments and market adaptability.
- Green Hydrogen Projects: Shell's green hydrogen initiatives in the EU are viewed as another failing investment, as ongoing expenditures raise questions about the feasibility and profitability of these projects, potentially affecting its strategic positioning in the renewable energy sector.
See More
Shell Declares Quarterly Dividend and $3.5B Buyback Program
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: Shell declares a quarterly dividend of $0.372 per share, with ADS holders receiving $0.744 per ADS, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to stable cash flow and shareholder returns.
- Dividend Payment Schedule: The dividend for ordinary shareholders will be payable on March 30, with a record date of February 20 and an ex-dividend date of February 19, ensuring timely returns for investors and bolstering confidence in the stock.
- Share Buyback Program: Shell initiates a $3.5 billion share buyback program expected to be completed within three months, aimed at enhancing earnings per share and rewarding shareholders, indicating the company's confidence in its future financial health.
- Future Outlook: The buyback program is set to conclude before the company's Q1 2026 results announcement, signaling Shell's positive outlook on future performance while providing additional returns to shareholders.
See More
Shell Reports Significant Q4 Profit Increase Amid Revenue Decline
- Significant Profit Growth: Shell's pre-tax income for Q4 reached $6.898 billion, a substantial increase from last year's $4.205 billion, indicating strong profitability despite a slight revenue decline.
- Earnings Per Share Surge: Net income attributable to shareholders skyrocketed from $928 million ($0.15 per share) last year to $4.134 billion ($0.71 per share), reflecting successful strategies in cost control and market demand.
- Share Buyback Initiative: Shell announced a $3.5 billion share buyback program expected to be completed before the Q1 2026 results, aimed at enhancing shareholder returns and boosting market confidence.
- Future Production Outlook: The company projects Q1 Integrated Gas production to be approximately 920,000 to 980,000 boe/d, with LNG liquefaction volumes expected to be around 7.4 to 8.0 million tonnes, indicating ongoing growth potential in future markets.
See More
