Rivian's R2 SUV Set for 2026 Launch, Stock Up 67% in 2025
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 24 2025
0mins
Should l Buy RIVN?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Stock Recovery: Rivian's stock has surged 67% in 2025, reaching $19 on December 12 for the first time since January 2024, indicating market optimism for future growth despite a flat performance over the past three years.
- New Model Anticipation: The company plans to launch the R2 SUV in 2026 with a starting price of $45,000, aiming to penetrate the 'affordable' electric vehicle market, which could be pivotal for its recovery.
- Sales Challenges: Despite a 32% sales increase in Q3, the primary R1 models saw a 36% year-over-year decline in Q1 2025, highlighting intense market competition and demand uncertainty.
- Competitive Analysis: The R2 SUV will face competition from Toyota's bZ, Tesla's Model Y, and Honda's Prologue; if R2 can compete effectively, it may bolster Rivian's long-term investment appeal.
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Analyst Views on RIVN
Wall Street analysts forecast RIVN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RIVN is 17.78 USD with a low forecast of 10.00 USD and a high forecast of 25.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
7 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 14.800
Low
10.00
Averages
17.78
High
25.00
Current: 14.800
Low
10.00
Averages
17.78
High
25.00
About RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc. is an automotive manufacturer, which is engaged in developing and building category-defining electric vehicles (EVs) and accessories, as well as software and services that address the entire lifecycle of the vehicle. The Company’s R1 platform consists of two vehicles: the R1T, a two-row five-passenger pickup truck, and the R1S, a three-row seven-passenger sport utility vehicle (SUV). In the commercial market, the Company offers a Rivian Commercial Vehicle (RCV) platform. The vehicle on this platform is the Electric Delivery Van (EDV), designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon. The Company also offers FleetOS, its proprietary, end-to-end centralized fleet management subscription platform. It also offers a variety of services, including vehicle repair and maintenance, financing, insurance, software subscriptions and FleetOS solutions. Its value-added services include vehicle electrical architecture and software development services, and more.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Rivian Automotive's Rise in the EV Market
- Profitability Improvement: Rivian achieved a gross profit of $24 million in Q3 2025, marking its second consecutive profitable quarter with sales reaching $1.56 billion, a 78% increase year-over-year, indicating strong growth potential in the EV market.
- Technology Innovation Showcase: At the December 2025 Autonomy & AI Day, Rivian unveiled its custom chip and new self-driving technology, which are independent of its partnership with Volkswagen, demonstrating the company's capability for independent technological advancement.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Rivian expects to deliver between 66,000 and 68,000 vehicles in 2026, and while adjusted EBITDA remains negative, the loss is narrowing to between $2 billion and $2.25 billion, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
- Legal Issues Resolved: Although Rivian agreed to pay $250 million to settle a lawsuit from investors, analysts remain optimistic about its future, believing that the $5.8 billion partnership with Volkswagen will provide funding support and enhance its position in the EV market.
See More
Rivian Automotive's Growth Potential Analysis
- Sales Growth Expectations: Rivian anticipates a 27% sales growth in 2026, significantly up from 8% in 2025, primarily driven by the upcoming R2 model priced at $45,000, which will attract more budget-conscious consumers and expand market share.
- Advancements in Autonomous Driving: Rivian plans to achieve full autonomous driving by 2026, supported by the upcoming production of in-house silicon chips and next-gen computers, which will provide substantial growth potential and strengthen its market position in AI.
- Profitability Improvement: With the launch of the R2 model, Rivian is expected to achieve profitability in 2026, as CEO compensation is tied to profitability, indicating a push for scale that will enhance market competitiveness and narrow the valuation gap with peers like Tesla.
- Market Value Appeal: Currently valued at only $18 billion, Rivian's stock appears highly attractive given its future sales growth and AI strategy, making it a compelling buy for investors looking to capitalize on future growth opportunities amid recent price declines.
See More
Rivian Earnings Forecast and Stock Volatility Analysis
- Earnings Expectations: Wall Street analysts forecast Rivian to report a loss of 81 cents per share on revenue of $1.26 billion, a significant decline from last year's loss of 46 cents per share and revenue of $1.73 billion, indicating ongoing market challenges and pressure on profitability.
- Volatility Analysis: The volatility skew in the options chain shows that call implied volatility is notably higher than put implied volatility, suggesting increased market confidence in potential upside, although overall market sentiment remains cautious, which could influence investor decisions.
- Price Projections: The Black-Scholes model estimates that Rivian's stock price may range between $13.22 and $16.44 by the February 13 expiration, reflecting uncertainty in future price movements while also presenting potential trading opportunities for investors.
- Trading Strategy: Given the current market sentiment and stock volatility, investors are advised to consider the 15.50/16.00 bull call spread, which could yield a maximum payout of 163% if Rivian's stock surpasses the $16 strike, indicating an enticing opportunity amid risk-reward considerations.
See More
High-Volume Earnings Reports This Week from Tech and Consumer Sectors
- Earnings Schedule: This week features a high volume of earnings reports from technology, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors, with RIVN stock showing notable movement ahead of its earnings release, indicating investor sentiment.
- Monday.com and Pagaya Reports: On Monday, work management SaaS provider Monday.com and fintech company Pagaya released their earnings before the market opened, with expectations that their results will reflect broader industry trends.
- Coinbase Earnings Expectations: On Thursday, Coinbase is expected to report earnings of 68 cents per share and quarterly revenue of $1.86 billion, despite facing a projected 33% drop in transaction revenue, raising investor interest in its growing stablecoin and subscription services.
- Nebius Group Forecast: Also on Thursday, Nebius Group is projected to report a loss of $1.14 per share and revenue of $246.05 million, with analysts expressing caution, reflecting concerns over cloud service demand in the current market environment.
See More
Rivian R2 SUV Undergoes Cold Weather Testing Ahead of Launch
- Cold Weather Testing: Rivian is conducting cold weather testing for its new R2 SUV in Fairbanks, Alaska, to ensure the electric vehicle performs well in sub-zero conditions ahead of its anticipated launch in the first half of this year.
- Battery Capability Validation: This cold weather testing is crucial for validating the EV's battery performance, which could help position the more affordable R2 as a competitor to Tesla's Model Y.
- Price Advantage: With a starting price near $45,000, the Rivian R2 qualifies for Canada's EV rebate, enhancing its appeal in a market characterized by prolonged sub-zero winters.
- Market Rebound: Following an eleven-day losing streak, Rivian shares are expected to trade positively for a second day, reflecting market optimism regarding the new model's potential impact.
See More
Movers: Hims & Hers, Novo Nordisk, Micron, Kroger, STMicroelectronics, Nvidia, and Others
- Stock Market Trends: Stock futures were declining on Monday as investors expressed concerns about the sustainability of a recent relief rally.
- Investor Sentiment: There is a prevailing uncertainty among investors regarding the market's ability to maintain upward momentum following last week's gains.
See More
Rivian Automotive's Rise in the EV Market
- Profitability Improvement: Rivian achieved a gross profit of $24 million in Q3 2025, marking its second consecutive profitable quarter with sales reaching $1.56 billion, a 78% increase year-over-year, indicating strong growth potential in the EV market.
- Technology Innovation Showcase: At the December 2025 Autonomy & AI Day, Rivian unveiled its custom chip and new self-driving technology, which are independent of its partnership with Volkswagen, demonstrating the company's capability for independent technological advancement.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Rivian expects to deliver between 66,000 and 68,000 vehicles in 2026, and while adjusted EBITDA remains negative, the loss is narrowing to between $2 billion and $2.25 billion, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
- Legal Issues Resolved: Although Rivian agreed to pay $250 million to settle a lawsuit from investors, analysts remain optimistic about its future, believing that the $5.8 billion partnership with Volkswagen will provide funding support and enhance its position in the EV market.
See More
Rivian Automotive's Growth Potential Analysis
- Sales Growth Expectations: Rivian anticipates a 27% sales growth in 2026, significantly up from 8% in 2025, primarily driven by the upcoming R2 model priced at $45,000, which will attract more budget-conscious consumers and expand market share.
- Advancements in Autonomous Driving: Rivian plans to achieve full autonomous driving by 2026, supported by the upcoming production of in-house silicon chips and next-gen computers, which will provide substantial growth potential and strengthen its market position in AI.
- Profitability Improvement: With the launch of the R2 model, Rivian is expected to achieve profitability in 2026, as CEO compensation is tied to profitability, indicating a push for scale that will enhance market competitiveness and narrow the valuation gap with peers like Tesla.
- Market Value Appeal: Currently valued at only $18 billion, Rivian's stock appears highly attractive given its future sales growth and AI strategy, making it a compelling buy for investors looking to capitalize on future growth opportunities amid recent price declines.
See More
Rivian Earnings Forecast and Stock Volatility Analysis
- Earnings Expectations: Wall Street analysts forecast Rivian to report a loss of 81 cents per share on revenue of $1.26 billion, a significant decline from last year's loss of 46 cents per share and revenue of $1.73 billion, indicating ongoing market challenges and pressure on profitability.
- Volatility Analysis: The volatility skew in the options chain shows that call implied volatility is notably higher than put implied volatility, suggesting increased market confidence in potential upside, although overall market sentiment remains cautious, which could influence investor decisions.
- Price Projections: The Black-Scholes model estimates that Rivian's stock price may range between $13.22 and $16.44 by the February 13 expiration, reflecting uncertainty in future price movements while also presenting potential trading opportunities for investors.
- Trading Strategy: Given the current market sentiment and stock volatility, investors are advised to consider the 15.50/16.00 bull call spread, which could yield a maximum payout of 163% if Rivian's stock surpasses the $16 strike, indicating an enticing opportunity amid risk-reward considerations.
See More
High-Volume Earnings Reports This Week from Tech and Consumer Sectors
- Earnings Schedule: This week features a high volume of earnings reports from technology, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors, with RIVN stock showing notable movement ahead of its earnings release, indicating investor sentiment.
- Monday.com and Pagaya Reports: On Monday, work management SaaS provider Monday.com and fintech company Pagaya released their earnings before the market opened, with expectations that their results will reflect broader industry trends.
- Coinbase Earnings Expectations: On Thursday, Coinbase is expected to report earnings of 68 cents per share and quarterly revenue of $1.86 billion, despite facing a projected 33% drop in transaction revenue, raising investor interest in its growing stablecoin and subscription services.
- Nebius Group Forecast: Also on Thursday, Nebius Group is projected to report a loss of $1.14 per share and revenue of $246.05 million, with analysts expressing caution, reflecting concerns over cloud service demand in the current market environment.
See More
Rivian R2 SUV Undergoes Cold Weather Testing Ahead of Launch
- Cold Weather Testing: Rivian is conducting cold weather testing for its new R2 SUV in Fairbanks, Alaska, to ensure the electric vehicle performs well in sub-zero conditions ahead of its anticipated launch in the first half of this year.
- Battery Capability Validation: This cold weather testing is crucial for validating the EV's battery performance, which could help position the more affordable R2 as a competitor to Tesla's Model Y.
- Price Advantage: With a starting price near $45,000, the Rivian R2 qualifies for Canada's EV rebate, enhancing its appeal in a market characterized by prolonged sub-zero winters.
- Market Rebound: Following an eleven-day losing streak, Rivian shares are expected to trade positively for a second day, reflecting market optimism regarding the new model's potential impact.
See More
Movers: Hims & Hers, Novo Nordisk, Micron, Kroger, STMicroelectronics, Nvidia, and Others
- Stock Market Trends: Stock futures were declining on Monday as investors expressed concerns about the sustainability of a recent relief rally.
- Investor Sentiment: There is a prevailing uncertainty among investors regarding the market's ability to maintain upward momentum following last week's gains.
See More
