Rivian's Q4 Earnings Preview: Key Insights

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

RIVN-3.05%

Source: Fool

Updated: 7h ago

0mins

Source: Fool

Declining Deliveries: Rivian's Q4 deliveries fell 31% year-over-year to 9,745 vehicles, primarily due to customers rushing to purchase ahead of the tax credit removal, highlighting the company's vulnerability to market demand fluctuations.
Tax Credit Impact: Rivian vehicles are ineligible for tax credits in 2025 due to failure to meet domestic battery sourcing requirements, exacerbating sales pressure in the high-end market and impacting future revenue growth.
Software and Services Growth: Despite declining deliveries, Rivian's Q3 software and services revenue surged 324% year-over-year to $416 million, indicating the company's potential in diversifying its business model, particularly through its joint venture with Volkswagen.
Uncertain Future Outlook: Given the tax credit removal, Rivian's Q4 earnings are expected to fall short of the strong Q3 results, prompting investors to focus on the company's long-term potential rather than short-term price fluctuations amid future market challenges.

RIVN

$15.27+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on RIVN

Wall Street analysts forecast RIVN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RIVN is 17.78 USD with a low forecast of 10.00 USD and a high forecast of 25.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

18 Analyst Rating

8 Buy

7 Hold

3 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 15.750

Low

10.00

Averages

17.78

High

25.00

Current: 15.750

Low

10.00

Averages

17.78

High

25.00

Piper Sandler

Neutral

maintain

$14 -> $20

2026-01-08

Reason

Piper Sandler

Price Target

$14 -> $20

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Rivian to $20 from $14 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Discussing the outlook for 2026, the firm says it expects North American sales to fall 1.2% in 2026 due to persistent concerns regarding affordability. Lower sales should have a downward impact on production, but this may be blunted by re-shoring and fewer imports. In Europe, Piper expects sales to revert to growth in 2026, driven by an influx of cheap Chinese vehicles and rising government support. The firm further expects production to remain flat, due to weakening demand for domestic cars and lower exports. In China, Piper sees sales falling 3.0% in 2026 due to macro weakness and expiring subsidies. Continued export growth should partially offset the effect of lower demand on production, which it has as falling 1.8% year-over-year in 2026.

Goldman Sachs

Neutral

maintain

$16 -> $18

2026-01-05

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$16 -> $18

2026-01-05

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Rivian to $18 from $16 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Rivian's Q4 deliveries were 9.7K, down 26% quarter over quarter and 31% year over year, slightly below the firm's estimate, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Goldman believes key focus items going forward will be on the R2, and with its autonomy efforts.

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Morgan Stanley

Underweight

maintain

$12

2026-01-02

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$12

2026-01-02

maintain

Underweight

Reason

Morgan Stanley reiterated an Underweight rating and $12 price target on Rivian after the company announced a 31% year-over-year decline Q4 deliveries. All eyes are now on Q4 earnings and 2026 guidance, particularly the R2 ramp, and the firm maintains its cautious view on demand in 2026 following the expiration of the EV tax credit and the evolving tech hardware roadmap, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm added that the introduction of LiDAR in late 2026 for advanced levels of autonomy may yield a demand air-pocket for most of 2026 as customers wait for Rivian's latest gen tech platform.

Wedbush

Daniel Ives

Outperform

maintain

$16 -> $25

2025-12-19

Reason

Wedbush

Daniel Ives

Price Target

$16 -> $25

2025-12-19

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives raised the firm's price target on Rivian to $25 from $16 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm believes 2026 represents a significant year for the company with the launch of R2 in the first half of 2026 expected to drive improving delivery metrics and improvements to its autonomy roadmap to tap into alternative revenue sources while strategically managing its cost structure given rising tariff risks and investments in its business.

About RIVN

Rivian Automotive, Inc. is an automotive manufacturer, which is engaged in developing and building category-defining electric vehicles (EVs) and accessories, as well as software and services that address the entire lifecycle of the vehicle. The Company’s R1 platform consists of two vehicles: the R1T, a two-row five-passenger pickup truck, and the R1S, a three-row seven-passenger sport utility vehicle (SUV). In the commercial market, the Company offers a Rivian Commercial Vehicle (RCV) platform. The vehicle on this platform is the Electric Delivery Van (EDV), designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon. The Company also offers FleetOS, its proprietary, end-to-end centralized fleet management subscription platform. It also offers a variety of services, including vehicle repair and maintenance, financing, insurance, software subscriptions and FleetOS solutions. Its value-added services include vehicle electrical architecture and software development services, and more.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.