CLSA's Earnings Prediction: CLSA forecasts that SJM HOLDINGS will report weak 4Q25 results, with a projected 30% year-over-year decline in adjusted EBITDA to HKD696 million due to pressure on market share and profit margins.
Target Price Adjustment: CLSA has lowered its target price for SJM HOLDINGS from HKD3 to HKD2.9 while maintaining an Outperform rating, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's performance.
Investor Focus Areas: Investors are expected to pay close attention to SJM HOLDINGS' market share, balance sheet strength, and the timing of dividend resumption following the acquisition of L'Arc Macau.
Short Selling Activity: The report notes a short selling amount of $3.76 million for SJM HOLDINGS, with a short selling ratio of 21.785%, reflecting market skepticism about the company's near-term performance.
Wall Street analysts forecast 00880 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00880 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 00880 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00880 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 2.330
Low
Averages
High
Current: 2.330
Low
Averages
High
HSBC Global Research
HSBC Global Research
Hold
maintain
$2.6
Al Analysis
2025-11-13
Reason
HSBC Global Research
HSBC Global Research
Price Target
$2.6
Al Analysis
2025-11-13
maintain
Hold
Reason
The analyst rating for SJM Holdings (00880.HK) is maintained at "Hold" by HSBC Global Research due to the following reasons:
1. Performance in Line with Expectations: The company's 3Q25 results were broadly in line with expectations, indicating stability in its financial performance.
2. Self-Operated Casinos Outperforming: The performance of self-operated casinos exceeded expectations, which is a positive sign for the company's core operations.
3. Weak Satellite Casino Results: The overall performance was offset by weaker results from satellite casinos, which have seen a decrease in market share from 5.1% to 3.9% as the company winds down this segment.
4. Potential for Market Share Recovery: A new agreement allowing SJM Holdings to directly contact satellite casino customers starting in November is expected to help recover some of the lost market share, suggesting potential for future growth.
5. Target Price and Upside Potential: HSBC has set a target price of $2.6, and if the transition of satellite casinos proceeds smoothly, there is potential for earnings upside.
These factors contribute to the decision to maintain a "Hold" rating, reflecting cautious optimism about the company's future performance.
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Hold
to
Underweight
downgrade
$2.8
2025-11-13
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$2.8
2025-11-13
downgrade
Hold
to
Underweight
Reason
The analyst rating for SJM HOLDINGS was downgraded to Underweight by Morgan Stanley due to several key factors:
1. Decline in Mass Market Share: The mass market share decreased by 110 basis points, primarily attributed to challenges from satellite casino operations.
2. High Debt Levels: The company's net debt reached $21.8 billion, resulting in a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.2x, which is the highest in Macau. This raises concerns about financial stability.
3. Overly Optimistic EBITDA Projections: The market's expectation for a full-year group EBITDA of $3.529 billion, which implies a 14% QoQ growth to $1.002 billion in 4Q25, was considered too high by the broker.
4. Anticipated Increase in Debt Ratio: The expected completion of the acquisition of L'Arch and Ponte 16 in 4Q25 is likely to further increase the debt ratio, adding to the financial concerns.
These factors led Morgan Stanley to set a target price of $2.8 for the stock, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's performance.
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CLSA
CLSA
Hold
maintain
$3.2
2025-11-13
Reason
CLSA
CLSA
Price Target
$3.2
2025-11-13
maintain
Hold
Reason
The analyst rating for SJM Holdings (00880.HK) is "Hold" due to several factors. The company is experiencing pressure on its market share and profits, evidenced by a 15% year-over-year drop in its 3Q25 adjusted EBITDA. Additionally, the continued suspension of satellite casinos is expected to negatively impact its market share in the short term. The lack of a clear timetable for resuming dividends further contributes to the cautious outlook. The broker believes that SJM Holdings lacks short-term catalysts for growth, which supports the decision to maintain the "Hold" rating with a target price of $3.2.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
