<Research>CLSA Projects 30% Year-over-Year Decline in SJM HOLDINGS Adjusted EBITDA for Last Quarter
CLSA's Earnings Prediction: CLSA forecasts that SJM HOLDINGS will report weak 4Q25 results, with a projected 30% year-over-year decline in adjusted EBITDA to HKD696 million due to pressure on market share and profit margins.
Target Price Adjustment: CLSA has lowered its target price for SJM HOLDINGS from HKD3 to HKD2.9 while maintaining an Outperform rating, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's performance.
Investor Focus Areas: Investors are expected to pay close attention to SJM HOLDINGS' market share, balance sheet strength, and the timing of dividend resumption following the acquisition of L'Arc Macau.
Short Selling Activity: The report notes a short selling amount of $3.76 million for SJM HOLDINGS, with a short selling ratio of 21.785%, reflecting market skepticism about the company's near-term performance.
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M Stanley Predicts 18% Year-Over-Year Growth in MO 1Q GGR, Prefers GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD
Macau's GGR Performance: In January 2026, Macau's Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) increased by 24% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, reaching MOP22.6 billion, surpassing market expectations according to Morgan Stanley.
February Growth Expectations: The upcoming Lunar New Year holiday is anticipated to boost February's GGR, with a projected year-on-year growth of 22%.
1Q26 GGR Forecast: Morgan Stanley predicts an 18% year-on-year increase in Macau's GGR for the first quarter of 2026, benefiting from a low base in early 2025.
Stock Recommendations: The broker favors stocks such as Galaxy Entertainment, Sands China, and Melco Resorts, all rated Overweight, while MGM China is rated Neutral and SJM Holdings is rated Underweight.
SANDS CHINA LTD Rises Over 4% Despite Market Trends, Following Strong January GGR from MO
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's January Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) reached MOP22.633 billion, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase and surpassing market expectations by about 5%.
Stock Market Reactions: Major gaming companies like Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment saw their stock prices rise, with Sands China up 4.58% and Galaxy Entertainment up 0.95%, despite initial declines.
Market Forecasts: Analysts from Morgan Stanley and CLSA predict continued growth in Macau's GGR, with expectations of an 18% year-over-year increase in the first quarter and potential upside risks to annual growth forecasts.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling statistics for various companies, indicating varying levels of market confidence, with SJM Holdings showing a notably high short selling ratio of 29.649%.
M Stanley Anticipates Minor Margin Compression for Casinos in Q4 2025, Favors GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD
Macau Gaming Industry Forecast: Morgan Stanley has revised its 4Q25 forecast for Macau's gaming industry downward due to a shift towards high VIP business and rising operating expenses, predicting a slight decrease in profit margins.
EBITDA Growth Expectations: The average adjusted property EBITDA for 4Q25 is expected to grow by 4% quarter-over-quarter and 13% year-over-year, aligning with market consensus.
Stock Ratings and Performance: UBS favors GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD, both rated Overweight, while MGM CHINA has been downgraded to Equalweight due to increased royalty fees, despite a potential recovery in market share.
Market Trends: MGM CHINA underperformed in December but may see some recovery in 4Q25, while SJM HOLDINGS is rated Underweight amid ongoing market challenges.
JPM Predicts Slower 4Q Earnings Growth for MO Casinos Compared to GGR, Lowers Ratings for SJM Holdings and Melco Resorts & Entertainment
JPMorgan's Optimism on Macau Gaming: JPMorgan expressed optimism about Macau's gaming industry, predicting an 'upcycle' driven by high-end demand and market liquidity, with GGR exceeding expectations but profit margins lagging behind.
Downgrades and Selective Strategy: The firm downgraded SJM Holdings from Neutral to Underweight and Melco Resorts from Overweight to Neutral, while maintaining Galaxy Entertainment as a top pick and advising caution on SJM Holdings and Melco International Development.
Profit Margin Concerns: Despite strong GGR growth, profit margins have not improved, attributed to higher operating expenses and a shift towards VIP gaming, with expectations of continued challenges in Q4 2025.
Market Sentiment and Short Selling: The report highlighted significant short selling activity in various stocks, indicating market skepticism, particularly towards SJM Holdings and Melco International Development.
<Research>CLSA Projects 30% Year-over-Year Decline in SJM HOLDINGS Adjusted EBITDA for Last Quarter
CLSA's Earnings Prediction: CLSA forecasts that SJM HOLDINGS will report weak 4Q25 results, with a projected 30% year-over-year decline in adjusted EBITDA to HKD696 million due to pressure on market share and profit margins.
Target Price Adjustment: CLSA has lowered its target price for SJM HOLDINGS from HKD3 to HKD2.9 while maintaining an Outperform rating, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's performance.
Investor Focus Areas: Investors are expected to pay close attention to SJM HOLDINGS' market share, balance sheet strength, and the timing of dividend resumption following the acquisition of L'Arc Macau.
Short Selling Activity: The report notes a short selling amount of $3.76 million for SJM HOLDINGS, with a short selling ratio of 21.785%, reflecting market skepticism about the company's near-term performance.
Citi Projects 13% Year-Over-Year Increase in Casino Industry EBITDA Last Quarter, with GALAXY ENT Leading the Gains
Citi's EBITDA Forecast: Citi projects a 13% year-over-year increase in industry EBITDA for casino stocks, reaching USD2.246 billion, driven by a 15% rise in quarterly GGR and a slight increase in EBITDA margin to 27.5%.
Market Share Changes: GALAXY ENT and MGM CHINA are expected to show the largest quarter-over-quarter market share improvements, while SJM HOLDINGS is likely to experience the most significant market share loss due to satellite casino closures.
Investment Ratings: Citi has provided updated investment ratings and target prices for various casino stocks, with GALAXY ENT rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD54, while SJM HOLDINGS is rated as a "Sell" with a target price of HKD2.23.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling data for the stocks mentioned, indicating varying levels of short interest, with SANDS CHINA LTD having the highest short selling ratio at 14.120%.
M Stanley Predicts 18% Year-Over-Year Growth in MO 1Q GGR, Prefers GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD
Macau's GGR Performance: In January 2026, Macau's Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) increased by 24% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, reaching MOP22.6 billion, surpassing market expectations according to Morgan Stanley.
February Growth Expectations: The upcoming Lunar New Year holiday is anticipated to boost February's GGR, with a projected year-on-year growth of 22%.
1Q26 GGR Forecast: Morgan Stanley predicts an 18% year-on-year increase in Macau's GGR for the first quarter of 2026, benefiting from a low base in early 2025.
Stock Recommendations: The broker favors stocks such as Galaxy Entertainment, Sands China, and Melco Resorts, all rated Overweight, while MGM China is rated Neutral and SJM Holdings is rated Underweight.
SANDS CHINA LTD Rises Over 4% Despite Market Trends, Following Strong January GGR from MO
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's January Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) reached MOP22.633 billion, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase and surpassing market expectations by about 5%.
Stock Market Reactions: Major gaming companies like Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment saw their stock prices rise, with Sands China up 4.58% and Galaxy Entertainment up 0.95%, despite initial declines.
Market Forecasts: Analysts from Morgan Stanley and CLSA predict continued growth in Macau's GGR, with expectations of an 18% year-over-year increase in the first quarter and potential upside risks to annual growth forecasts.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling statistics for various companies, indicating varying levels of market confidence, with SJM Holdings showing a notably high short selling ratio of 29.649%.
M Stanley Anticipates Minor Margin Compression for Casinos in Q4 2025, Favors GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD
Macau Gaming Industry Forecast: Morgan Stanley has revised its 4Q25 forecast for Macau's gaming industry downward due to a shift towards high VIP business and rising operating expenses, predicting a slight decrease in profit margins.
EBITDA Growth Expectations: The average adjusted property EBITDA for 4Q25 is expected to grow by 4% quarter-over-quarter and 13% year-over-year, aligning with market consensus.
Stock Ratings and Performance: UBS favors GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD, both rated Overweight, while MGM CHINA has been downgraded to Equalweight due to increased royalty fees, despite a potential recovery in market share.
Market Trends: MGM CHINA underperformed in December but may see some recovery in 4Q25, while SJM HOLDINGS is rated Underweight amid ongoing market challenges.
JPM Predicts Slower 4Q Earnings Growth for MO Casinos Compared to GGR, Lowers Ratings for SJM Holdings and Melco Resorts & Entertainment
JPMorgan's Optimism on Macau Gaming: JPMorgan expressed optimism about Macau's gaming industry, predicting an 'upcycle' driven by high-end demand and market liquidity, with GGR exceeding expectations but profit margins lagging behind.
Downgrades and Selective Strategy: The firm downgraded SJM Holdings from Neutral to Underweight and Melco Resorts from Overweight to Neutral, while maintaining Galaxy Entertainment as a top pick and advising caution on SJM Holdings and Melco International Development.
Profit Margin Concerns: Despite strong GGR growth, profit margins have not improved, attributed to higher operating expenses and a shift towards VIP gaming, with expectations of continued challenges in Q4 2025.
Market Sentiment and Short Selling: The report highlighted significant short selling activity in various stocks, indicating market skepticism, particularly towards SJM Holdings and Melco International Development.
<Research>CLSA Projects 30% Year-over-Year Decline in SJM HOLDINGS Adjusted EBITDA for Last Quarter
CLSA's Earnings Prediction: CLSA forecasts that SJM HOLDINGS will report weak 4Q25 results, with a projected 30% year-over-year decline in adjusted EBITDA to HKD696 million due to pressure on market share and profit margins.
Target Price Adjustment: CLSA has lowered its target price for SJM HOLDINGS from HKD3 to HKD2.9 while maintaining an Outperform rating, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's performance.
Investor Focus Areas: Investors are expected to pay close attention to SJM HOLDINGS' market share, balance sheet strength, and the timing of dividend resumption following the acquisition of L'Arc Macau.
Short Selling Activity: The report notes a short selling amount of $3.76 million for SJM HOLDINGS, with a short selling ratio of 21.785%, reflecting market skepticism about the company's near-term performance.
Citi Projects 13% Year-Over-Year Increase in Casino Industry EBITDA Last Quarter, with GALAXY ENT Leading the Gains
Citi's EBITDA Forecast: Citi projects a 13% year-over-year increase in industry EBITDA for casino stocks, reaching USD2.246 billion, driven by a 15% rise in quarterly GGR and a slight increase in EBITDA margin to 27.5%.
Market Share Changes: GALAXY ENT and MGM CHINA are expected to show the largest quarter-over-quarter market share improvements, while SJM HOLDINGS is likely to experience the most significant market share loss due to satellite casino closures.
Investment Ratings: Citi has provided updated investment ratings and target prices for various casino stocks, with GALAXY ENT rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD54, while SJM HOLDINGS is rated as a "Sell" with a target price of HKD2.23.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling data for the stocks mentioned, indicating varying levels of short interest, with SANDS CHINA LTD having the highest short selling ratio at 14.120%.
