CLSA's Earnings Prediction: CLSA forecasts that SJM HOLDINGS will report weak 4Q25 results, with a projected 30% year-over-year decline in adjusted EBITDA to HKD696 million due to pressure on market share and profit margins.

Target Price Adjustment: CLSA has lowered its target price for SJM HOLDINGS from HKD3 to HKD2.9 while maintaining an Outperform rating, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's performance.

Investor Focus Areas: Investors are expected to pay close attention to SJM HOLDINGS' market share, balance sheet strength, and the timing of dividend resumption following the acquisition of L'Arc Macau.

Short Selling Activity: The report notes a short selling amount of $3.76 million for SJM HOLDINGS, with a short selling ratio of 21.785%, reflecting market skepticism about the company's near-term performance.

Citi's EBITDA Forecast: Citi projects a 13% year-over-year increase in industry EBITDA for casino stocks, reaching USD2.246 billion, driven by a 15% rise in quarterly GGR and a slight increase in EBITDA margin to 27.5%.

Market Share Changes: GALAXY ENT and MGM CHINA are expected to show the largest quarter-over-quarter market share improvements, while SJM HOLDINGS is likely to experience the most significant market share loss due to satellite casino closures.

Investment Ratings: Citi has provided updated investment ratings and target prices for various casino stocks, with GALAXY ENT rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD54, while SJM HOLDINGS is rated as a "Sell" with a target price of HKD2.23.

Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling data for the stocks mentioned, indicating varying levels of short interest, with SANDS CHINA LTD having the highest short selling ratio at 14.120%.

SJM Holdings Senior Notes Issuance: SJM Holdings announced the issuance of US$540 million in 6.5% senior notes due 2031, with proceeds aimed at refinancing existing debt and general corporate purposes.

Concurrent Offer to Purchase: The company is also conducting a cash offer to repurchase all outstanding 2026 Notes, which will be financed through the proceeds from the new notes and internal funding.

Macau GGR Performance: Macau's Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) increased by 15% year-on-year to MOP20.9 billion last month, aligning with market expectations despite lower VIP room win rates in recent weeks.

Q4 Outlook for Casino Stocks: Goldman Sachs anticipates strong Q4 results for Macau casino stocks, with quarterly GGR rising 14% year-on-year to MOP66.1 billion, nearing pre-pandemic levels.

Market Share Changes: Recent surveys indicate that GALAXY ENT and WYNN MACAU gained market share, while SJM HOLDINGS, WYNN MACAU, and Melco Resorts lost ground in the competitive landscape.

MGM CHINA Royalty Fee Increase: MGM CHINA announced a doubling of its royalty fee to 3.5% of net revenue, leading to a forecasted reduction in EBITDA and earnings, prompting Goldman Sachs to lower its target price for the company.

Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) grew by 14.8% year-on-year to MOP20.9 billion in December 2025, recovering to 91.5% of December 2019 levels, although it fell short of the 18% growth expected by Bloomberg.

January 2026 Projections: CICC estimates that Macau's GGR will be between MOP20.2-21.7 billion in January 2026, indicating a daily average of MOP650-700 million, which represents a year-on-year increase of 10-19%, but remains 13-19% lower than January 2019 figures.

Stock Performance and Short Selling: The report highlights the stock performance of major gaming companies, with MGM CHINA, SANDS CHINA, and GALAXY ENT experiencing notable short selling activity, indicating market caution.

Licensing Fee Impact: Jefferies warns that a potential licensing fee hike for MGM CHINA could lead to a 10% drop in net profit for 2026, along with a possible review of dividend policies.