M Stanley Anticipates Minor Margin Compression for Casinos in Q4 2025, Favors GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD
Macau Gaming Industry Forecast: Morgan Stanley has revised its 4Q25 forecast for Macau's gaming industry downward due to a shift towards high VIP business and rising operating expenses, predicting a slight decrease in profit margins.
EBITDA Growth Expectations: The average adjusted property EBITDA for 4Q25 is expected to grow by 4% quarter-over-quarter and 13% year-over-year, aligning with market consensus.
Stock Ratings and Performance: UBS favors GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD, both rated Overweight, while MGM CHINA has been downgraded to Equalweight due to increased royalty fees, despite a potential recovery in market share.
Market Trends: MGM CHINA underperformed in December but may see some recovery in 4Q25, while SJM HOLDINGS is rated Underweight amid ongoing market challenges.
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<Daily Summary> HSI Ends at 26,834, Gaining 59 Points; HSTI Finishes at 5,467, Losing 59 Points; CSPC PHARMA Surges Over 8%; NEW ORIENTAL, HSBC HOLDINGS, MTR CORPORATION, POWER ASSETS, CIMC Reach New Peaks; Market Turnover Increases
Market Performance: The HSI rose by 59 points (0.2%) to 26,834, while the HSTI and HSCEI fell by 59 points (1.1%) and 27 points (0.3%) respectively, with a total market turnover of $335.15 billion.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba saw declines, with Tencent closing down 2.9% at $581, while Ping An was the only heavyweight to gain, closing up 0.8% at $71.3.
Notable Movers: CSPC Pharma and New Oriental experienced significant gains, rising 8.1% and 6.4% respectively, while Kuaishou-W and Baidu-SW faced notable declines, down 4.6% and 3.6%.
High Performers: CIMC and Wanguo Gold GP were standout performers, with CIMC surging 15% and Wanguo Gold GP increasing by 13.6%, both hitting new highs.
<Midday Update> HSI Ends Midday at 26,830, Gaining 54 Points; HSTI Ends Midday at 5,453, Losing 72 Points; TENCENT Falls More Than 3%; MTR CORPORATION, POWER ASSETS, CIMC, ZOOMLION, FIH Reach New Peaks
Market Performance: The HSI rose by 54 points (0.2%) to 26,830, while the HSTI and HSCEI fell by 72 points (1.3%) and 19 points (0.2%) respectively.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan experienced declines, with Tencent down 4.0% and Alibaba down 2.3%, while Ping An saw a slight increase of 0.9%.
Notable Movers: CSPC Pharma and CKH Holdings saw significant gains, up 3.5% and 3.4% respectively, while Kuaishou-W dropped 5.1%.
High Performers: Stocks like Fangzhou Jianke and CIMC achieved notable increases of 15.3% and 16.1%, reaching new highs in their respective performances.
G Sachs Research: January GGR Exceeds Expectations; 1Q GGR Projected to Increase 17% Year-over-Year
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's January Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) grew by 24% year-on-year to MOP22.6 billion, reaching 91% of the 2019 level, driven by a healthy increase in mainland Chinese visitors.
Impact of Events on Gaming Demand: Goldman Sachs believes that the upcoming Winter Olympic Games will not significantly affect gaming demand, while the World Cup may impact monthly revenue by no more than 5%.
SANDS CHINA LTD Financials: Despite reporting lower-than-expected EBITDA in 4Q25 due to one-off expenses and a shift towards lower-margin segments, Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on SANDS CHINA LTD.
Outlook for Other Companies: Goldman Sachs anticipates solid 4Q25 results for GALAXY ENT and MGM CHINA, with expected EBITDA increases of 28% and 8% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, and reiterates Buy ratings for these stocks.
M Stanley Predicts 18% Year-Over-Year Growth in MO 1Q GGR, Prefers GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD
Macau's GGR Performance: In January 2026, Macau's Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) increased by 24% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, reaching MOP22.6 billion, surpassing market expectations according to Morgan Stanley.
February Growth Expectations: The upcoming Lunar New Year holiday is anticipated to boost February's GGR, with a projected year-on-year growth of 22%.
1Q26 GGR Forecast: Morgan Stanley predicts an 18% year-on-year increase in Macau's GGR for the first quarter of 2026, benefiting from a low base in early 2025.
Stock Recommendations: The broker favors stocks such as Galaxy Entertainment, Sands China, and Melco Resorts, all rated Overweight, while MGM China is rated Neutral and SJM Holdings is rated Underweight.
SANDS CHINA LTD Rises Over 4% Despite Market Trends, Following Strong January GGR from MO
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's January Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) reached MOP22.633 billion, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase and surpassing market expectations by about 5%.
Stock Market Reactions: Major gaming companies like Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment saw their stock prices rise, with Sands China up 4.58% and Galaxy Entertainment up 0.95%, despite initial declines.
Market Forecasts: Analysts from Morgan Stanley and CLSA predict continued growth in Macau's GGR, with expectations of an 18% year-over-year increase in the first quarter and potential upside risks to annual growth forecasts.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling statistics for various companies, indicating varying levels of market confidence, with SJM Holdings showing a notably high short selling ratio of 29.649%.
HSI Rises 0.5% at Midday, Reaching Over 4.5-Year High; Chinese Developers Active; SANDS CHINA LTD Under Pressure
Market Performance: The HSI experienced a strong start, reaching a 4.5-year high of 27,981 before settling at 27,975, with a midday increase of 148 points or 0.5%. The HSCEI also rose by 43 points, while the HSTECH saw a slight decline.
Chinese Property Developers Rally: Several Chinese property developers surged in stock prices after being exempted from submitting monthly "Three Red Lines" reports, with notable increases of 26-34% for companies like CHINA AOYUAN and LOGAN GROUP.
Mixed Results in Other Sectors: While property managers and some tech stocks saw gains, companies like SANDS CHINA and GALAXY ENT experienced declines, with SANDS CHINA dropping 7.3% despite a rise in its adjusted property EBITDA.
Commodity and Tech Stock Movements: Gold and silver prices reached new highs, positively impacting ZIJIN MINING, while tech giants like TENCENT and BIDU-SW saw minor increases, contrasting with losses from BABA-W and BILIBILI-W.
<Daily Summary> HSI Ends at 26,834, Gaining 59 Points; HSTI Finishes at 5,467, Losing 59 Points; CSPC PHARMA Surges Over 8%; NEW ORIENTAL, HSBC HOLDINGS, MTR CORPORATION, POWER ASSETS, CIMC Reach New Peaks; Market Turnover Increases
Market Performance: The HSI rose by 59 points (0.2%) to 26,834, while the HSTI and HSCEI fell by 59 points (1.1%) and 27 points (0.3%) respectively, with a total market turnover of $335.15 billion.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba saw declines, with Tencent closing down 2.9% at $581, while Ping An was the only heavyweight to gain, closing up 0.8% at $71.3.
Notable Movers: CSPC Pharma and New Oriental experienced significant gains, rising 8.1% and 6.4% respectively, while Kuaishou-W and Baidu-SW faced notable declines, down 4.6% and 3.6%.
High Performers: CIMC and Wanguo Gold GP were standout performers, with CIMC surging 15% and Wanguo Gold GP increasing by 13.6%, both hitting new highs.
<Midday Update> HSI Ends Midday at 26,830, Gaining 54 Points; HSTI Ends Midday at 5,453, Losing 72 Points; TENCENT Falls More Than 3%; MTR CORPORATION, POWER ASSETS, CIMC, ZOOMLION, FIH Reach New Peaks
Market Performance: The HSI rose by 54 points (0.2%) to 26,830, while the HSTI and HSCEI fell by 72 points (1.3%) and 19 points (0.2%) respectively.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan experienced declines, with Tencent down 4.0% and Alibaba down 2.3%, while Ping An saw a slight increase of 0.9%.
Notable Movers: CSPC Pharma and CKH Holdings saw significant gains, up 3.5% and 3.4% respectively, while Kuaishou-W dropped 5.1%.
High Performers: Stocks like Fangzhou Jianke and CIMC achieved notable increases of 15.3% and 16.1%, reaching new highs in their respective performances.
G Sachs Research: January GGR Exceeds Expectations; 1Q GGR Projected to Increase 17% Year-over-Year
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's January Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) grew by 24% year-on-year to MOP22.6 billion, reaching 91% of the 2019 level, driven by a healthy increase in mainland Chinese visitors.
Impact of Events on Gaming Demand: Goldman Sachs believes that the upcoming Winter Olympic Games will not significantly affect gaming demand, while the World Cup may impact monthly revenue by no more than 5%.
SANDS CHINA LTD Financials: Despite reporting lower-than-expected EBITDA in 4Q25 due to one-off expenses and a shift towards lower-margin segments, Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on SANDS CHINA LTD.
Outlook for Other Companies: Goldman Sachs anticipates solid 4Q25 results for GALAXY ENT and MGM CHINA, with expected EBITDA increases of 28% and 8% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, and reiterates Buy ratings for these stocks.
M Stanley Predicts 18% Year-Over-Year Growth in MO 1Q GGR, Prefers GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD
Macau's GGR Performance: In January 2026, Macau's Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) increased by 24% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, reaching MOP22.6 billion, surpassing market expectations according to Morgan Stanley.
February Growth Expectations: The upcoming Lunar New Year holiday is anticipated to boost February's GGR, with a projected year-on-year growth of 22%.
1Q26 GGR Forecast: Morgan Stanley predicts an 18% year-on-year increase in Macau's GGR for the first quarter of 2026, benefiting from a low base in early 2025.
Stock Recommendations: The broker favors stocks such as Galaxy Entertainment, Sands China, and Melco Resorts, all rated Overweight, while MGM China is rated Neutral and SJM Holdings is rated Underweight.
SANDS CHINA LTD Rises Over 4% Despite Market Trends, Following Strong January GGR from MO
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's January Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) reached MOP22.633 billion, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase and surpassing market expectations by about 5%.
Stock Market Reactions: Major gaming companies like Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment saw their stock prices rise, with Sands China up 4.58% and Galaxy Entertainment up 0.95%, despite initial declines.
Market Forecasts: Analysts from Morgan Stanley and CLSA predict continued growth in Macau's GGR, with expectations of an 18% year-over-year increase in the first quarter and potential upside risks to annual growth forecasts.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling statistics for various companies, indicating varying levels of market confidence, with SJM Holdings showing a notably high short selling ratio of 29.649%.
HSI Rises 0.5% at Midday, Reaching Over 4.5-Year High; Chinese Developers Active; SANDS CHINA LTD Under Pressure
Market Performance: The HSI experienced a strong start, reaching a 4.5-year high of 27,981 before settling at 27,975, with a midday increase of 148 points or 0.5%. The HSCEI also rose by 43 points, while the HSTECH saw a slight decline.
Chinese Property Developers Rally: Several Chinese property developers surged in stock prices after being exempted from submitting monthly "Three Red Lines" reports, with notable increases of 26-34% for companies like CHINA AOYUAN and LOGAN GROUP.
Mixed Results in Other Sectors: While property managers and some tech stocks saw gains, companies like SANDS CHINA and GALAXY ENT experienced declines, with SANDS CHINA dropping 7.3% despite a rise in its adjusted property EBITDA.
Commodity and Tech Stock Movements: Gold and silver prices reached new highs, positively impacting ZIJIN MINING, while tech giants like TENCENT and BIDU-SW saw minor increases, contrasting with losses from BABA-W and BILIBILI-W.
