Raises FY26 Restaurant Sales Outlook to Up 2%-4%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 07 2026
0mins
Raises FY26 system-wide comparable restaurant sales view to up 2%-4% from up 1%-3%.
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Analyst Views on LOCO
Wall Street analysts forecast LOCO stock price to fall
4 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 14.070
Low
12.00
Averages
12.75
High
13.50
Current: 14.070
Low
12.00
Averages
12.75
High
13.50
About LOCO
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. specializes in fire-grilling citrus-marinated chicken and operates in the limited-service restaurant (LSR) segment. The Company offers food that integrates the culinary traditions of Mexico with the lifestyle of Los Angeles. Its menu features its signature product, citrus-marinated fire-grilled chicken, as well as a variety of Mexican and Los Angeles (LA)-inspired entrees creates from its chicken. It serves individual and family-sized chicken meals, a variety of Mexican and Los Angeles (LA)-inspired entrees and sides, on a limited-time basis, and additional proteins like beef and shrimp. Its entrees include Chicken Avocado Burrito, Pollo Fit entrees, chicken tostada salads and Pollo Bowls. Its Creamy Cilantro dressings and salsas are prepared fresh daily, allowing its customers to create their favorite flavor profiles to enhance their culinary experience. It operates over 498 restaurants, which consist of 173 Company-operated and 325 franchised restaurants.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
El Pollo Loco Reports Strong Q1 2026 Earnings with Increased Guidance
- Significant Sales Growth: El Pollo Loco achieved a system-wide same-store sales growth of 5.8% in Q1 2026, with restaurant-level margins expanding by 320 basis points year-over-year, demonstrating strong performance in a competitive dining market and boosting investor confidence.
- Digital Business Success: The company's digital business accounted for approximately 28% of sales in corporate restaurants, with National Burrito Day generating the highest loyalty sales day in company history, indicating that successful digital transformation will further drive future sales growth.
- Robust Financial Performance: Total revenue for Q1 reached $126.2 million, with GAAP net income of $8.2 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.27, while adjusted EBITDA stood at $18.2 million, showcasing effective management in profitability and cost control.
- Optimistic Outlook: The company raised its guidance for system-wide same-store sales growth to between 2% and 4% for 2026, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $67.5 million and $69.5 million, reflecting management's confidence in future performance and sustained market demand.
See More
El Pollo Loco Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Strong Earnings Report: El Pollo Loco's Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.28 exceeded expectations by $0.06, demonstrating the company's robust profitability amid fierce competition in the restaurant industry.
- Revenue Growth: The company reported Q1 revenue of $126.2 million, a 5.9% year-over-year increase that surpassed market expectations by $4.18 million, indicating the effectiveness of its business model in the current economic climate.
- 2026 Outlook: El Pollo Loco raised its fiscal year 2026 system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth forecast to 2.0% to 4.0%, with adjusted EBITDA expected between $67.5 million and $69.5 million, reflecting confidence in future growth.
- Expansion Plans: The company reiterated plans to open 3 to 4 company-operated restaurants and 15 to 16 franchise-operated locations in 2026, with capital expenditures projected between $37 million and $40 million, showcasing its commitment to ongoing expansion.
See More
El Pollo Loco Launches New Loco Tenders
- Product Launch: On April 23, 2026, El Pollo Loco officially introduces Loco Tenders™, made from 100% all-white meat chicken, aimed at tapping into the growing demand for chicken tenders, which is expected to enhance the brand's competitive edge in the fast-food market.
- Variety of Options: Loco Tenders are available in 2, 3, or 4-piece meal combinations, offered in spicy and classic flavors, catering to diverse consumer preferences and enhancing customer dining experiences and satisfaction.
- Unique Dipping Sauces: Each order of Loco Tenders comes with a choice of three signature sauces, including Pollo Loco Sauce™, Baja Lime, and House Ranch, designed to attract new customers and strengthen brand loyalty through rich flavor combinations.
- Market Expansion: As the nation's leading fire-grilled chicken restaurant chain, El Pollo Loco operates over 500 locations across the U.S., and the introduction of this new product is set to further solidify its market position and attract more consumers, especially in the context of the rising popularity of healthy fast food.
See More
Restaurant Industry Faces Challenges and Opportunities
- Industry Performance Decline: The restaurant sector has seen a 2.5% decline over the past six months, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's 2.5% gain, indicating significant challenges that could undermine investor confidence in the sector.
- Shake Shack Financial Struggles: With a market cap of $3.97 billion, Shake Shack's operating margin stands at a mere 2.4%, below the industry average, suggesting management's shortcomings in cost control and investment opportunities, which may hinder future growth prospects.
- Papa John's Sales Decline: Papa John's, valued at $1.17 billion, is projected to experience a 6.1% sales decline over the next 12 months, alongside a 3.3 percentage point drop in operating margin, reflecting weak market demand that could impact its long-term profitability.
- El Pollo Loco Weak Demand: El Pollo Loco, with a market cap of $415.8 million, anticipates only 1.5% sales growth in the coming year, and its smaller revenue base indicates insufficient market competitiveness, suggesting a need for pricing and marketing strategy adjustments to stimulate demand.
See More
MarketBeat Weekly Recap – March 16 to March 20
Market Sentiment: As spring approaches, investors are hoping for an end to the March Madness in stocks, but major indexes closed below their 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish sentiment influenced by persistent inflation data.
Investment Opportunities: Amid market volatility, analysts suggest there are still opportunities to be found, particularly in retail stocks like Dollar Tree and Ollie's Bargain Outlet, which have shown positive results despite cautious guidance.
Tech Sector Dynamics: The tech sector is experiencing fluctuations, with companies like PayPal facing downward pressure due to takeover rumors, while others like Cloudflare are gaining attention for their potential growth in the AI space.
Stock Splits and Market Trends: Investors are advised to watch for potential stock splits in 2026, as several companies may consider this move based on stock price performance, while also keeping an eye on legislative trading activities that could impact market dynamics.
See More
El Pollo Loco Stock Surpasses Analyst Target Price
- Stock Performance: El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc's shares recently rose to $14.33, surpassing the analyst-set 12-month target price of $14.30, indicating increased market confidence that may attract more investor attention.
- Analyst Reactions: When a stock reaches its target price, analysts typically either downgrade their valuation or raise their target price; the current positive performance of El Pollo Loco may prompt analysts to reassess their targets, further influencing stock price movements.
- Target Price Distribution: Among analysts covered by Zacks, El Pollo Loco's target prices range from $11.00 to $20.00, with a standard deviation of $3.383, reflecting varying market perspectives on the company's future performance, necessitating careful investor evaluation.
- Investor Decision-Making: As the stock price exceeds the target price, investors face decisions on whether to hold or reduce their positions, with market sentiment and the company's fundamentals being critical factors that will influence future stock price trends.
See More
El Pollo Loco Reports Strong Q1 2026 Earnings with Increased Guidance
- Significant Sales Growth: El Pollo Loco achieved a system-wide same-store sales growth of 5.8% in Q1 2026, with restaurant-level margins expanding by 320 basis points year-over-year, demonstrating strong performance in a competitive dining market and boosting investor confidence.
- Digital Business Success: The company's digital business accounted for approximately 28% of sales in corporate restaurants, with National Burrito Day generating the highest loyalty sales day in company history, indicating that successful digital transformation will further drive future sales growth.
- Robust Financial Performance: Total revenue for Q1 reached $126.2 million, with GAAP net income of $8.2 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.27, while adjusted EBITDA stood at $18.2 million, showcasing effective management in profitability and cost control.
- Optimistic Outlook: The company raised its guidance for system-wide same-store sales growth to between 2% and 4% for 2026, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $67.5 million and $69.5 million, reflecting management's confidence in future performance and sustained market demand.
See More
El Pollo Loco Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Strong Earnings Report: El Pollo Loco's Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.28 exceeded expectations by $0.06, demonstrating the company's robust profitability amid fierce competition in the restaurant industry.
- Revenue Growth: The company reported Q1 revenue of $126.2 million, a 5.9% year-over-year increase that surpassed market expectations by $4.18 million, indicating the effectiveness of its business model in the current economic climate.
- 2026 Outlook: El Pollo Loco raised its fiscal year 2026 system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth forecast to 2.0% to 4.0%, with adjusted EBITDA expected between $67.5 million and $69.5 million, reflecting confidence in future growth.
- Expansion Plans: The company reiterated plans to open 3 to 4 company-operated restaurants and 15 to 16 franchise-operated locations in 2026, with capital expenditures projected between $37 million and $40 million, showcasing its commitment to ongoing expansion.
See More
El Pollo Loco Launches New Loco Tenders
- Product Launch: On April 23, 2026, El Pollo Loco officially introduces Loco Tenders™, made from 100% all-white meat chicken, aimed at tapping into the growing demand for chicken tenders, which is expected to enhance the brand's competitive edge in the fast-food market.
- Variety of Options: Loco Tenders are available in 2, 3, or 4-piece meal combinations, offered in spicy and classic flavors, catering to diverse consumer preferences and enhancing customer dining experiences and satisfaction.
- Unique Dipping Sauces: Each order of Loco Tenders comes with a choice of three signature sauces, including Pollo Loco Sauce™, Baja Lime, and House Ranch, designed to attract new customers and strengthen brand loyalty through rich flavor combinations.
- Market Expansion: As the nation's leading fire-grilled chicken restaurant chain, El Pollo Loco operates over 500 locations across the U.S., and the introduction of this new product is set to further solidify its market position and attract more consumers, especially in the context of the rising popularity of healthy fast food.
See More
Restaurant Industry Faces Challenges and Opportunities
- Industry Performance Decline: The restaurant sector has seen a 2.5% decline over the past six months, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's 2.5% gain, indicating significant challenges that could undermine investor confidence in the sector.
- Shake Shack Financial Struggles: With a market cap of $3.97 billion, Shake Shack's operating margin stands at a mere 2.4%, below the industry average, suggesting management's shortcomings in cost control and investment opportunities, which may hinder future growth prospects.
- Papa John's Sales Decline: Papa John's, valued at $1.17 billion, is projected to experience a 6.1% sales decline over the next 12 months, alongside a 3.3 percentage point drop in operating margin, reflecting weak market demand that could impact its long-term profitability.
- El Pollo Loco Weak Demand: El Pollo Loco, with a market cap of $415.8 million, anticipates only 1.5% sales growth in the coming year, and its smaller revenue base indicates insufficient market competitiveness, suggesting a need for pricing and marketing strategy adjustments to stimulate demand.
See More
MarketBeat Weekly Recap – March 16 to March 20
Market Sentiment: As spring approaches, investors are hoping for an end to the March Madness in stocks, but major indexes closed below their 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish sentiment influenced by persistent inflation data.
Investment Opportunities: Amid market volatility, analysts suggest there are still opportunities to be found, particularly in retail stocks like Dollar Tree and Ollie's Bargain Outlet, which have shown positive results despite cautious guidance.
Tech Sector Dynamics: The tech sector is experiencing fluctuations, with companies like PayPal facing downward pressure due to takeover rumors, while others like Cloudflare are gaining attention for their potential growth in the AI space.
Stock Splits and Market Trends: Investors are advised to watch for potential stock splits in 2026, as several companies may consider this move based on stock price performance, while also keeping an eye on legislative trading activities that could impact market dynamics.
See More
El Pollo Loco Stock Surpasses Analyst Target Price
- Stock Performance: El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc's shares recently rose to $14.33, surpassing the analyst-set 12-month target price of $14.30, indicating increased market confidence that may attract more investor attention.
- Analyst Reactions: When a stock reaches its target price, analysts typically either downgrade their valuation or raise their target price; the current positive performance of El Pollo Loco may prompt analysts to reassess their targets, further influencing stock price movements.
- Target Price Distribution: Among analysts covered by Zacks, El Pollo Loco's target prices range from $11.00 to $20.00, with a standard deviation of $3.383, reflecting varying market perspectives on the company's future performance, necessitating careful investor evaluation.
- Investor Decision-Making: As the stock price exceeds the target price, investors face decisions on whether to hold or reduce their positions, with market sentiment and the company's fundamentals being critical factors that will influence future stock price trends.
See More
