Our Calculations Show AVLV Could Reach $80
ETF Analysis: The Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF (AVLV) has an implied analyst target price of $79.86, indicating a potential upside of 10.35% from its current trading price of $72.37.
Notable Holdings: Key underlying holdings such as AGCO Corp., Graco Inc., and Moelis & Co. show significant upside potential, with target prices exceeding their recent trading prices by 15.86%, 12.24%, and 10.87%, respectively.
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- AI Fears in Financial Stocks: Concerns regarding artificial intelligence's impact on financial stocks are perceived as exaggerated.
- Market Sentiment: The current market sentiment suggests that the potential threat of AI is not as significant as some investors believe.
- Investment Perspective: Investors may be overreacting to AI developments, which could lead to mispricing in financial stocks.
- Long-term Outlook: The long-term outlook for financial stocks remains positive despite the ongoing discussions about AI.
- Record Revenue: Moelis & Company achieved $488 million in Q4 2025 revenues, an 11% increase year-over-year, with adjusted revenues reaching $1.54 billion for the year, reflecting strong performance in M&A and capital markets.
- Expansion of Private Capital Advisory: Significant investments in the private capital advisory business in 2025 have led to meaningful traction, positioning the firm to better serve sponsor clients as market demand continues to rise, enhancing competitive advantage.
- Shareholder Return Initiatives: The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share and authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $300 million, demonstrating confidence in future cash flows and commitment to shareholder returns.
- Positive Market Outlook: Management expressed optimism for 2026, citing a constructive transaction environment and significant opportunities for growth in client capabilities and market share, which are expected to drive long-term value enhancement for the company.
- Earnings Beat: Moelis reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.13, surpassing expectations by $0.30, indicating strong profitability and boosting investor confidence in the company's financial health.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $487.9 million, an 11.2% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst forecasts by $52.84 million, showcasing Moelis's competitive edge and business expansion capabilities.
- Positive Stock Reaction: Following the earnings report, Moelis's shares rose by 4.10%, reflecting market optimism regarding the company's future growth potential and likely attracting more investor interest.
- Increased Dividend Appeal: With current growth prospects appearing uncertain, Moelis's dividend income becomes more attractive, potentially drawing in investors seeking stable returns, thereby strengthening the company's capital structure and market position.
- Share Increase: Capital Management Corp disclosed an acquisition of 80,297 shares of Moelis & Company in Q4, valued at approximately $5.36 million, indicating confidence in the firm despite an 8% decline in stock price over the past year.
- Holding Proportion Rise: This purchase raised the fund's stake to 3.48% of its 13F reportable AUM, highlighting a significant position that reflects ongoing optimism towards investment banking operations.
- Strong Financial Performance: Moelis reported Q3 revenue of $356.9 million, a 30% increase year-over-year, with net income surging 212% to $60.1 million, showcasing the firm's resilience and profitability during market downturns.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: Management reaffirmed confidence in shareholder returns by declaring a $0.65 quarterly dividend and repurchasing $14.5 million in stock, indicating a strategic focus on maintaining financial flexibility.

- Strong Financial Performance: LVMH's 2025 and fiscal fourth quarter results exceeded analysts' expectations.
- Luxury Market Challenges: Despite strong quarterly results, the overall weak sales growth for the year indicates that the luxury market's recovery is still ongoing.

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