Moody's changes Ecopetrol's credit rating to Ba1 and its outlook from negative to stable
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 23 2024
0mins
Should l Buy EC?
Source: PRnewswire
- Moody's Rating Downgrade: Moody's downgraded Ecopetrol S.A.'s global credit rating from Baa3 to Ba1 and changed the outlook to stable, citing concerns about debt management, dividend distribution, and cash generation expectations.
- Reasoning for Downgrade: The downgrade was influenced by Ecopetrol's deviation from its dividend policy, debt management practices, and projected cash flow in 2025.
- Ecopetrol's Position: Despite the downgrade, Ecopetrol remains Colombia's primary oil and gas producer with a strong presence in power transmission businesses in Latin America, supported by subsidiaries like Interconexión Eléctrica S.A. E.S.P. and Cenit SAS.
- Financial Outlook: Moody's believes Ecopetrol can meet its financial obligations through global capital markets and Colombian government support, resulting in an overall rating three levels above the individual rating.
- Business Operations: Ecopetrol is a major energy company in Colombia with operations in hydrocarbon production, transportation, logistics, refining, petrochemicals, gas distribution, and international ventures in strategic basins across the Americas.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy EC?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on EC
Wall Street analysts forecast EC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EC is 7.85 USD with a low forecast of 7.00 USD and a high forecast of 8.70 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 12.570
Low
7.00
Averages
7.85
High
8.70
Current: 12.570
Low
7.00
Averages
7.85
High
8.70
About EC
Ecopetrol S.A. is an oil company. The Company operates in Colombia, Peru, Brazil and the United States Gulf Coast. The Company's segments include Exploration and Production, Transportation and Logistics, and Refining, Petrochemicals and Biofuels. The Company's Exploration and Production segment includes exploration, development and production activities in Colombia and abroad. The Company's Transportation and Logistics segment includes the transportation of crude oil, motor fuels, fuel oil and other refined products, including diesel and biofuels. The Company's main crude oil pipeline systems' operating capacity is approximately 1.34 million barrels per day (BPD). The Company's main refineries are the Barrancabermeja refinery, which it directly owns and operates, and a refinery in the Free Trade Zone in Cartagena that is operated by Reficar S.A., a subsidiary of the Company. The Company also owns and operates two other minor refineries: Orito and Apiay.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Ecopetrol Submits Corporate Governance Report
- Report Submission: On January 30, 2026, Ecopetrol submitted its Corporate Governance Best Practices Implementation Report for 2025 to the Financial Superintendence of Colombia, highlighting the company's ongoing improvements in governance aimed at enhancing transparency and compliance.
- Company Scale and Impact: As Colombia's largest company, Ecopetrol is responsible for over 60% of the country's hydrocarbon production, holding a significant position in the energy market across the Americas, which underscores its critical role in the energy supply chain.
- International Business Expansion: Ecopetrol engages in drilling and exploration activities in the U.S., Brazil, and Mexico, and by acquiring 51.4% of ISA's shares, it has strengthened its capabilities in energy transmission and infrastructure management, further solidifying its market position.
- Forward-Looking Statements: The company noted that its future growth prospects are subject to uncertainties related to market prices, regulations, and economic conditions, emphasizing the ongoing focus on capital access to support the implementation of its business plan.
See More
Ecopetrol Submits Corporate Governance Report
- Governance Report Submission: On January 30, 2026, Ecopetrol submitted its Corporate Governance Best Practices Implementation Report to the Financial Superintendence of Colombia, reflecting its ongoing commitment to governance and transparency.
- Industry Leadership: As Colombia's largest company, Ecopetrol accounts for over 60% of the country's hydrocarbon production, reinforcing its dominant position in the energy sector and significantly contributing to the national economy.
- International Business Expansion: Ecopetrol's drilling and exploration operations in the U.S., Brazil, and Mexico highlight its strategic investments in key basins across the Americas, enhancing its competitiveness in global markets.
- Diversified Investments: By acquiring 51.4% of ISA's shares, Ecopetrol has expanded its operations in energy transmission and highway concessions, strengthening its overall capabilities in the Latin American market.
See More
Ecopetrol Nominates New Board Candidate
- Board Nomination: Ecopetrol's minority shareholders have once again nominated Luis Felipe Henao Cardona as a candidate for the Board of Directors, as the ninth director on the slate proposed by the Colombian government, reflecting ongoing shareholder engagement in corporate governance.
- Company Scale and Impact: As Colombia's largest company with over 19,000 employees, Ecopetrol accounts for more than 60% of the country's hydrocarbon production, securing its dominant position in transportation, logistics, and refining systems, thereby reinforcing its market leadership.
- International Business Expansion: The acquisition of 51.4% of ISA's shares significantly enhances Ecopetrol's involvement in energy transmission and real-time systems management, while also playing a crucial role in the Barranquilla-Cartagena coastal highway concession, showcasing its strategic positioning in the Latin American market.
- Forward-Looking Statements: The company's release includes forward-looking statements that highlight risks related to market oil and gas prices, production activities, and economic conditions, emphasizing uncertainties in capital access and business plan execution, which serve as a reminder for investors to be aware of potential market fluctuations.
See More
Ecopetrol Nominates New Board Candidate
- Board Nomination: Ecopetrol's minority shareholders have once again nominated Luis Felipe Henao Cardona as a candidate for the Board of Directors, which will be voted on as the ninth director among nominees proposed by the Colombian government, indicating active minority shareholder engagement in corporate governance.
- Company Scale: As the largest company in Colombia, Ecopetrol is a key player among integrated energy companies in the Americas, employing over 19,000 people and accounting for more than 60% of the country's hydrocarbon production, thereby securing its dominant position in transportation, logistics, and refining systems.
- Strategic Acquisition: The acquisition of 51.4% of ISA's shares enhances Ecopetrol's capabilities in energy transmission and real-time systems management, while also participating in the Barranquilla-Cartagena coastal highway concession, further expanding its business scope.
- International Operations: Ecopetrol conducts drilling and exploration activities in strategic basins across the Americas, including the U.S. (Permian basin and Gulf of Mexico), Brazil, and Mexico, and holds leading positions in power transmission in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia through ISA and its subsidiaries, showcasing the success of its internationalization strategy.
See More
Ecopetrol Faces COP 5.3 Trillion Tax Penalty from DIAN
- Tax Dispute Escalation: On January 22, 2026, Colombia's National Tax and Customs Authority (DIAN) notified Ecopetrol of a confirmed assessment requiring payment of COP 5.3 trillion for VAT on gasoline imports from 2022 to 2024, indicating significant pressure on the company's tax compliance.
- Legal Action Plan: Ecopetrol disagrees with DIAN's decision and plans to pursue legal actions under current tax and customs regulations, a move that could not only impact the company's financial standing but also have far-reaching implications for its future operations and compliance strategies.
- Industry Position Consolidation: As Colombia's largest company responsible for over 60% of hydrocarbon production, Ecopetrol's leadership in energy transmission and oil exploration may be challenged by these tax issues, potentially affecting its competitiveness in the Americas market.
- Collaborative Resolution Mechanism: Despite the regulatory interpretation differences, Ecopetrol maintains a collaborative relationship with the tax authority, demonstrating the company's commitment to legal compliance and its efforts to uphold market reputation in the face of challenges.
See More
Ecopetrol Faces COP 5.3 Trillion Tax Penalty from DIAN
- Tax Penalty Notification: On January 22, 2026, Colombia's National Tax and Customs Authority notified Ecopetrol of a tax obligation totaling COP 5.3 trillion, including VAT and penalties, which could strain the company's financial position and cash flow.
- Escalating Legal Dispute: Ecopetrol has expressed disagreement with DIAN's decision and plans to pursue legal action under current tax and customs regulations, demonstrating the company's commitment to compliance, which may affect its relationship with the government.
- Industry Position: As Colombia's largest company responsible for over 60% of hydrocarbon production, Ecopetrol's leadership in the energy market may be challenged by this tax issue, potentially impacting its competitive edge.
- International Business Impact: Ecopetrol's drilling and exploration operations in the U.S., Brazil, and Mexico may face indirect effects from this tax dispute, particularly regarding capital acquisition and investment decisions, which could limit its international expansion capabilities.
See More
Ecopetrol Submits Corporate Governance Report
- Report Submission: On January 30, 2026, Ecopetrol submitted its Corporate Governance Best Practices Implementation Report for 2025 to the Financial Superintendence of Colombia, highlighting the company's ongoing improvements in governance aimed at enhancing transparency and compliance.
- Company Scale and Impact: As Colombia's largest company, Ecopetrol is responsible for over 60% of the country's hydrocarbon production, holding a significant position in the energy market across the Americas, which underscores its critical role in the energy supply chain.
- International Business Expansion: Ecopetrol engages in drilling and exploration activities in the U.S., Brazil, and Mexico, and by acquiring 51.4% of ISA's shares, it has strengthened its capabilities in energy transmission and infrastructure management, further solidifying its market position.
- Forward-Looking Statements: The company noted that its future growth prospects are subject to uncertainties related to market prices, regulations, and economic conditions, emphasizing the ongoing focus on capital access to support the implementation of its business plan.
See More
Ecopetrol Submits Corporate Governance Report
- Governance Report Submission: On January 30, 2026, Ecopetrol submitted its Corporate Governance Best Practices Implementation Report to the Financial Superintendence of Colombia, reflecting its ongoing commitment to governance and transparency.
- Industry Leadership: As Colombia's largest company, Ecopetrol accounts for over 60% of the country's hydrocarbon production, reinforcing its dominant position in the energy sector and significantly contributing to the national economy.
- International Business Expansion: Ecopetrol's drilling and exploration operations in the U.S., Brazil, and Mexico highlight its strategic investments in key basins across the Americas, enhancing its competitiveness in global markets.
- Diversified Investments: By acquiring 51.4% of ISA's shares, Ecopetrol has expanded its operations in energy transmission and highway concessions, strengthening its overall capabilities in the Latin American market.
See More
Ecopetrol Nominates New Board Candidate
- Board Nomination: Ecopetrol's minority shareholders have once again nominated Luis Felipe Henao Cardona as a candidate for the Board of Directors, as the ninth director on the slate proposed by the Colombian government, reflecting ongoing shareholder engagement in corporate governance.
- Company Scale and Impact: As Colombia's largest company with over 19,000 employees, Ecopetrol accounts for more than 60% of the country's hydrocarbon production, securing its dominant position in transportation, logistics, and refining systems, thereby reinforcing its market leadership.
- International Business Expansion: The acquisition of 51.4% of ISA's shares significantly enhances Ecopetrol's involvement in energy transmission and real-time systems management, while also playing a crucial role in the Barranquilla-Cartagena coastal highway concession, showcasing its strategic positioning in the Latin American market.
- Forward-Looking Statements: The company's release includes forward-looking statements that highlight risks related to market oil and gas prices, production activities, and economic conditions, emphasizing uncertainties in capital access and business plan execution, which serve as a reminder for investors to be aware of potential market fluctuations.
See More
Ecopetrol Nominates New Board Candidate
- Board Nomination: Ecopetrol's minority shareholders have once again nominated Luis Felipe Henao Cardona as a candidate for the Board of Directors, which will be voted on as the ninth director among nominees proposed by the Colombian government, indicating active minority shareholder engagement in corporate governance.
- Company Scale: As the largest company in Colombia, Ecopetrol is a key player among integrated energy companies in the Americas, employing over 19,000 people and accounting for more than 60% of the country's hydrocarbon production, thereby securing its dominant position in transportation, logistics, and refining systems.
- Strategic Acquisition: The acquisition of 51.4% of ISA's shares enhances Ecopetrol's capabilities in energy transmission and real-time systems management, while also participating in the Barranquilla-Cartagena coastal highway concession, further expanding its business scope.
- International Operations: Ecopetrol conducts drilling and exploration activities in strategic basins across the Americas, including the U.S. (Permian basin and Gulf of Mexico), Brazil, and Mexico, and holds leading positions in power transmission in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia through ISA and its subsidiaries, showcasing the success of its internationalization strategy.
See More
Ecopetrol Faces COP 5.3 Trillion Tax Penalty from DIAN
- Tax Dispute Escalation: On January 22, 2026, Colombia's National Tax and Customs Authority (DIAN) notified Ecopetrol of a confirmed assessment requiring payment of COP 5.3 trillion for VAT on gasoline imports from 2022 to 2024, indicating significant pressure on the company's tax compliance.
- Legal Action Plan: Ecopetrol disagrees with DIAN's decision and plans to pursue legal actions under current tax and customs regulations, a move that could not only impact the company's financial standing but also have far-reaching implications for its future operations and compliance strategies.
- Industry Position Consolidation: As Colombia's largest company responsible for over 60% of hydrocarbon production, Ecopetrol's leadership in energy transmission and oil exploration may be challenged by these tax issues, potentially affecting its competitiveness in the Americas market.
- Collaborative Resolution Mechanism: Despite the regulatory interpretation differences, Ecopetrol maintains a collaborative relationship with the tax authority, demonstrating the company's commitment to legal compliance and its efforts to uphold market reputation in the face of challenges.
See More
Ecopetrol Faces COP 5.3 Trillion Tax Penalty from DIAN
- Tax Penalty Notification: On January 22, 2026, Colombia's National Tax and Customs Authority notified Ecopetrol of a tax obligation totaling COP 5.3 trillion, including VAT and penalties, which could strain the company's financial position and cash flow.
- Escalating Legal Dispute: Ecopetrol has expressed disagreement with DIAN's decision and plans to pursue legal action under current tax and customs regulations, demonstrating the company's commitment to compliance, which may affect its relationship with the government.
- Industry Position: As Colombia's largest company responsible for over 60% of hydrocarbon production, Ecopetrol's leadership in the energy market may be challenged by this tax issue, potentially impacting its competitive edge.
- International Business Impact: Ecopetrol's drilling and exploration operations in the U.S., Brazil, and Mexico may face indirect effects from this tax dispute, particularly regarding capital acquisition and investment decisions, which could limit its international expansion capabilities.
See More
